Texas Winter 2014-2015

[CaptinCrunch]

Officially, the high today at DFW will be either 37 or 38 - from early this morning. This is pretty miserable winter weather. Good for nothing. Too warm for snow, too cold and dreary for anything else.

Not going to happen...lol, as of the 3pm update DFW was still setting at 32 degrees.

Highest I can find was 37 at 12:15AM; this may be what wxman57 is referring to.

LOL, maybe....

[Ralph's Weather]

Wow, it's all the way up to a balmy 32 degrees here in Denison - at 2:54 p.m. in the afternoon.

After a bit of patchy freezing drizzle over night.

So glad we all knew - from several days out - that this cold air and the bit of ice this morning was on its way! Makes me brim with confidence for the rest of the month!

I had seen some model runs that hinted at the possibility of freezing drizzle over the past few days. Though I do not recall any that showed the cold we are seeing today. I think we have at least one good winter storm left this winter. Canada is still plenty cold and if we can get the pattern to retrograde a bit west we will get the cold directed at us more consistently and also get out of this dry NW flow.

[Ntxw]

North Texas is the cold patch of the southern plains. Dense cloud cover and persistent drizzle made the difference. It's well in the 50s/60s up and down the high plains. Nothing spectacular about this pattern that created this, cold willed itself.





Next few weeks orientation of the PNA ridge determines our weather. If it gets close, we warm up like this weekend. If it budges west (middle of next week) it's colder NW flow. Roller coaster.

[wxman57]

I thought that DFW may have reached 38 between hours yesterday morning. Only 37, though. A station's high temperature is recorded between midnight and midnight, not necessarily in the afternoon.

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2015

...THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 37 1242 AM 85 1942 59 -22 38
MINIMUM 29 1027 AM 12 1912 37 -8 22
AVERAGE 33 48 -15 30

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forecasted to be 31 last night, my weather station read 27 this morning. Yesterday was forecasted to be 43 and i don't think it got above 35. Hopefully this weekend and next week is cooler than forecasted.

[wxman57]

Overnight models scaled back next weekend's cold a good bit. I still see no signs of a pattern change in the long range. Sure, we'll remain a bit below normal here in Texas after next week's warm-up, but nothing that would suggest any extreme cold or winter weather. I don't believe local temperature forecast busts by a few degrees constitute a signal that the models have the long-range pattern wrong. Oh, and my co-worker (the cold-mongerer) is agreeing that there is no pattern change in sight and probably not for at least a month.

Euro is still indicating quite warm temps in western Canada through day 10. The core of the cold air remains in eastern Canada and will impact the Great Lakes & NE U.S. over the coming weeks. All we will see is a few glancing blows of cold here in Texas. Perhaps a few light freezes. There are only about 3-4 weeks left where northeast Texas might have a shot at some winter weather (climatologically). Doesn't look likely the next 2-3 weeks. That leaves late February or early March. Low chances.

Below is the coldest (for Texas) panel in the overnight ECMWF. Not as cold as today/yesterday:

[Portastorm]

I guess you didn't look too closely at the 0z GFS which shows *some* wintry weather in west Texas next weekend. Granted, the 6z run takes it away but still ...

[Texas Snowman]

Come on Porta! Haven't you heard yet?!? "Winter over, nothing to see here, move on along!"

[wxman57]

Snow in the Panhandle or west Texas isn't so unusual. I don't see any for NE or SE Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Cold air too far east. As a financial guy, nat gas should run up based on the last few model runs. Another cold shot after it too.

[Texas Snowman]

Glad I don't live in NE or SE Texas. Otherwise, all winter hope would be lost between now and the latter half of March.

[Portastorm]

Glad I don't live in NE or SE Texas. Otherwise, all winter hope would be lost between now and the latter half of March.

Admittedly, it looks pretty grim for the next 7-10 days if you like "wintry" weather in Texas. Who knows ... maybe I was wrong about the pattern changing. Maybe it will lock in for the rest of winter. I would be surprised if that happened but wxman57 is correct in that there is no sign of that happening in any of the medium-range computer models.

We shall see ... meanwhile, it looks like Spring will be sprung this weekend throughout much of the state. Sunny and mid 70s here this weekend. Tomorrow should be a great day for my high schooler's first varsity baseball game!

[wxman57]

Glad I don't live in NE or SE Texas. Otherwise, all winter hope would be lost between now and the latter half of March.

If you're in Dennison then you're right in the middle of NE Texas, which certainly includes the D-FW Metroplex. Look at a map of Texas and divide it into 4 quarters. Top right quarter is NE TX.

Looking at satellite, I can see the clearing line should reach Houston this afternoon. Will be nice to see the sun again. Should be a nice weekend.

[Texas Snowman]

Glad I don't live in NE or SE Texas. Otherwise, all winter hope would be lost between now and the latter half of March.

If you're in Dennison then you're right in the middle of NE Texas, which certainly includes the D-FW Metroplex. Look at a map of Texas and divide it into 4 quarters. Top right quarter is NE TX.

Actually, my hometown's name is spelled "Denison" and not "Dennison." See, you're not always right.

And with all due respect, I'm not sure I know anyone in this part of the world that thinks they live in the middle of NE Texas. TV mets, local governments, local residents, sports team officials, etc. routinely refer to our region as North Texas or North Central Texas. Even official names of groups and entities bears that out - the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the 2014 North Texas Final Four organizers, the North Texas Super Bowl XLV Committee, etc..

For what it's worth, even the Fort Worth NWS Web site puts Grayson County squarely in North Texas (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=ntexclima ) and not in those NE Texas counties over towards Texarkana.

I get your point though, that you believe that winter is all but over for much of Texas.

But having seen several good snow events in March during the past 30+ years I've lived here, I'm not going to toss the towel in on winter just yet.

[Ralph's Weather]

Actually, my hometown's name is spelled "Denison" and not "Dennison." See, you're not always right.

And with all due respect, I'm not sure I know anyone in this part of the world that thinks they live in the middle of NE Texas. TV mets, local governments, local residents, sports team officials, etc. routinely refer to our region as North Texas or North Central Texas. Even official names of groups and entities bears that out - the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the 2014 North Texas Final Four organizers, the North Texas Super Bowl XLV Committee, etc..

For what it's worth, even the Fort Worth NWS Web site puts Grayson County squarely in North Texas (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=ntexclima ) and not in those NE Texas counties over towards Texarkana.

I get your point though, that you believe that winter is all but over for much of Texas.

But having seen several good snow events in March during the past 30+ years I've lived here, I'm not going to toss the towel in on winter just yet.

I was about to post that DFW and Denison in your case is definitely not Northeast Texas. Agree with you that we have get plenty of winter storms historically in Feb and March and rarely even April.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS coming in. Lowest temps in Texas for the next 15 days - Today.


Second lowest temps - next Friday:


Giant low remains in the Gulf of Alaska through next weekend (at least) and probably for another month or more. Hard to get more than a little below normal temps across Texas with this pattern.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Glad I don't live in NE or SE Texas. Otherwise, all winter hope would be lost between now and the latter half of March.

If you're in Dennison then you're right in the middle of NE Texas, which certainly includes the D-FW Metroplex. Look at a map of Texas and divide it into 4 quarters. Top right quarter is NE TX.

Actually, my hometown's name is spelled "Denison" and not "Dennison." See, you're not always right.

And with all due respect, I'm not sure I know anyone in this part of the world that thinks they live in the middle of NE Texas. TV mets, local governments, local residents, sports team officials, etc. routinely refer to our region as North Texas or North Central Texas. Even official names of groups and entities bears that out - the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the 2014 North Texas Final Four organizers, the North Texas Super Bowl XLV Committee, etc..

For what it's worth, even the Fort Worth NWS Web site puts Grayson County squarely in North Texas (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=ntexclima ) and not in those NE Texas counties over towards Texarkana.

I get your point though, that you believe that winter is all but over for much of Texas.

But having seen several good snow events in March during the past 30+ years I've lived here, I'm not going to toss the towel in on winter just yet.

I agree with you. As I said yesterday, some of the most memorable snow storms I remember occurred in late February or March.

[dhweather]

I do not believe there is a significant pattern change on the horizon. Slightly cooler to near normal temps, no rain for the next 2 weeks.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS coming in.

Giant low remains in the Gulf of Alaska through next weekend (at least) and probably for another month or more. Hard to get more than a little below normal temps across Texas with this pattern.

Exactly. I am comfortable saying it stays there for 2 more weeks, and will not be surprised if it stays there 6-8 more weeks, if not longer.

[wxman57]

Nothing significant in the 12z GFS for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area next 2 weeks: