Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

#4101 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:31 pm

:uarrow:
Depressing. :roll:

Looking forward to a wet Spring -- I hope.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#4102 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:43 pm

As Portastorm pointed out, there's no doubt that the models - medium range and short range - don't promise much if anything for winter weather lovers in Texas.

But then again, two significant temperature busts this week (two days with afternoon temperatures in the 30s here and some freezing drizzle that caused numerous accidents) were pretty much swing-and-miss model efforts from where I sit.

The next several days? Wxman 57 weather. After that, I'll still take the wait and see approach, especially since it's only Feb. 6.

I saw five inches of snow on my deck several years ago on March 21, 2010. And by my count, that date (March 21) is still 40+ days away. :wink:

Image

:uarrow: March 21, 2010 in Denison, Texas :uarrow:
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#4103 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:49 pm

I miss years like 2010. :cry:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#4104 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:59 pm

Our 2014-15 winter season in Texas started out with a bang. And with a belief that plenty of cold, snow and ice opportunities lay ahead. That was one of the themes of our November and early December conversations here. And at times, the model evidence seemed to back up those ideas.

But this winter hasn't turned out like many of us had hoped that it would, so far at least.

But with a few weeks of time left for winter weather in several portions of the state, maybe the models will be wrong - again - and we'll end the 2014-15 winter season with a late season bang instead of a thud.

Either way, the cold and snow rebellion continues. :froze:
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#4105 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:39 pm

BTW, for my own curiosity, I just went and looked at the numbers for this week here in Denison. We have had five freezes - and a near miss at 34 degrees (since Sunday) and our lowest reading was 21 degrees on Monday.

And as mentioned in a post above, there were two afternoons this week where temperatures were in the 30s and wind chills were quite a bit lower. On Monday, we topped out at only 40 degrees with much of the day spent in the 30s. And yesterday afternoon, we spent much of our time at or just above the freezing mark (afternoon high was a balmy 34 degrees).

Not a bad stretch of surprisingly cold weather (not even mentioning the freezing drizzle and accidents up here yesterday morning) in a week that the models didn't see coming just a few days ago. :D
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4106 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:46 pm

Many of us are unhappy with how this winter has shook out ... yet ... the ultimate irony to me with all of this is that the southern half of Texas has been one of the few places since December 1st who could say they had below normal temperatures. Check out this map which NWS San Antonio just tweeted out:

Image
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#4107 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:01 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:... snip

I saw five inches of snow on my deck several years ago on March 21, 2010. And by my count, that date (March 21) is still 40+ days away. :wink:


Now THAT'S depressing!

Found a site with snowcover maps past/present. Here's February 6th, 2010:
Image

And today:
Image

I prefer to think of weather like this...
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4108 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:06 pm

Houston (IAH) was 3.3F below normal in January and is currently 4.5F below normal so far this month:

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=hgx
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4109 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:32 pm

Portastorm wrote:Many of us are unhappy with how this winter has shook out ... yet ... the ultimate irony to me with all of this is that the southern half of Texas has been one of the few places since December 1st who could say they had below normal temperatures. Check out this map which NWS San Antonio just tweeted out:

http://i61.tinypic.com/bfm0w0.png


Southern half of Texas? Don't you mean SE Texas down there at the mouth of the Rio Grande? :D
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#4110 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:35 pm

:uarrow: If that were to keep up, Wxman 57 might be moving north of I-20!
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#4111 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:52 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: If that were to keep up, Wxman 57 might be moving north of I-20!


Normal is a lot colder up north. Perhaps I need to move not north of I-20 but south of 20N.

12Z EC says our winter ends next weekend (I can dream, anyway...). No more below-normal temps at 850mb:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Re:

#4112 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:I prefer to think of weather like this...
Image


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: I've heard that. At least that's the rumor on the streets anyway. :)
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4113 Postby dhweather » Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:51 pm

Cat 5 in the Gulf:


Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4114 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:38 pm

Portastorm wrote:Many of us are unhappy with how this winter has shook out ... yet ... the ultimate irony to me with all of this is that the southern half of Texas has been one of the few places since December 1st who could say they had below normal temperatures. Check out this map which NWS San Antonio just tweeted out:

http://i61.tinypic.com/bfm0w0.png


All this lack of snow talk too... a lot of places that average a lot more snow than us have seen way below their norms too... So we're not alone.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4115 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:52 pm

Just looked at the 12Z EC ensembles out to 360 hrs. They have a little below-normal 850mb temps across Texas for much of the week after next (16th-20th). The core of the cold air is centered over New England - all we get are pieces of cold air in Texas generally 1-3C below normal at 850mb.

Ensembles ARE predicting the big low in the Gulf of Alaska to retreat westward by 360hrs, but there is no ridge popping over Alaska to cool down western Canada. Ensembles have basically zonal flow from western Canada to eastern Canada at 360hrs. Warmer than normal temps prevail in western Canada south through the Northern Plains.
0 likes   

User avatar
hriverajr
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 786
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:16 am

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4116 Postby hriverajr » Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:34 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Many of us are unhappy with how this winter has shook out ... yet ... the ultimate irony to me with all of this is that the southern half of Texas has been one of the few places since December 1st who could say they had below normal temperatures. Check out this map which NWS San Antonio just tweeted out:

http://i61.tinypic.com/bfm0w0.png


Southern half of Texas? Don't you meayhstsn SE Texas down there at the mouth of the Rio Grande? :D


No that is very much south Texas
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4117 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 07, 2015 12:25 am

This is not in Texas at all but LOL

Image

Long range/fantasy land does look interesting but how many times has it been this year already....
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#4118 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:40 am

Hmmm...

"@BigJoeBastardi: The Plains and south are next.. The winter there has been like a lousy game where no one scores, but it will go into overtime and crank."
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re:

#4119 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:20 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Hmmm...

"@BigJoeBastardi: The Plains and south are next.. The winter there has been like a lousy game where no one scores, but it will go into overtime and crank."


Wait for it ... wait for it ... (go ahead dhweather, say it!). :P
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#4120 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 07, 2015 11:54 am

Nah, it's only a Cat 3 in the Gulf this time! :D
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests