Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

Remember.. thats a looonng way out

A meager two weeks out, the story of the 2014-15 winter.

[wxman57]

I'd point out that the GFS has shown snow all across Texas many times (beyond 240hrs) over the past month or so. It's been wrong every time so far. I'm not squirming yet. We've had "backdoor cold air" for most of the past month. It's possible that we could get more of a shot by the 19th. Latest GFS has Dallas down to 27 on the 19th - but no snow.

[Tireman4]

Sigh

[Snowman67]

I'd point out that the GFS has shown snow all across Texas many times (beyond 240hrs) over the past month or so. It's been wrong every time so far. I'm not squirming yet. We've had "backdoor cold air" for most of the past month. It's possible that we could get more of a shot by the 19th. Latest GFS has Dallas down to 27 on the 19th - but no snow.

Wait - but isn't this the same model that you have been posting/referencing most days to point out to us that there is no cold air on the way in the foreseeable future? I'm confused as to when I'm supposed to put any stock in the longer range models. Let me guess - when it shows warm weather beyond 240hrs

[Tireman4]

Well yeah Snowman. Lol. You should have seen him crowing in 2011. Enough to make a grown man cry.

[hriverajr]

I'd point out that the GFS has shown snow all across Texas many times (beyond 240hrs) over the past month or so. It's been wrong every time so far. I'm not squirming yet. We've had "backdoor cold air" for most of the past month. It's possible that we could get more of a shot by the 19th. Latest GFS has Dallas down to 27 on the 19th - but no snow.

Wait - but isn't this the same model that you have been posting/referencing most days to point out to us that there is no cold air on the way in the foreseeable future? I'm confused as to when I'm supposed to put any stock in the longer range models. Let me guess - when it shows warm weather beyond 240hrs

Well its been much more accurate on mild weather and very inaccurate on long range snow chances deep into Texas. It's definitely going to cool off, maybe even get cold for this time of year eventually. But Snow.. I got to see it falling out of the sky. lol

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hopefully something changes, because as of now, none of the weather apps or weather sites I look at show anything resembling cool or cold air through most of the month. I know most of these are not that accurate but it sure is discouraging seeing highs in the 50s and 60s with no below freezing temps through the whole month.

[Portastorm]

I would suggest folks pay closer attention to the progged 500 mb flow and less on depicted surface features. For two days straight now, the GFS and Euro ensemble means have shown a retrograding deep trough over the CONUS around 7-10 days out. It's becoming evident to me that it's going to get consistently colder by mid month in Texas. How much so? I dunno and I'm not predicting snow either. But the current ridge-trough setup is going to back up and will expose us to some colder air.

[wxman57]

I'd point out that the GFS has shown snow all across Texas many times (beyond 240hrs) over the past month or so. It's been wrong every time so far. I'm not squirming yet. We've had "backdoor cold air" for most of the past month. It's possible that we could get more of a shot by the 19th. Latest GFS has Dallas down to 27 on the 19th - but no snow.

Wait - but isn't this the same model that you have been posting/referencing most days to point out to us that there is no cold air on the way in the foreseeable future? I'm confused as to when I'm supposed to put any stock in the longer range models. Let me guess - when it shows warm weather beyond 240hrs

No, I said "extreme" cold air - like low 20s in NE TX and a hard freeze through Houston and/or snow in NE TX. Light freezes are not what I'd call extreme. And that was through mid month, not forever.

Latest model runs are indicating a bigger shot of Canadian air arriving on the 19th and possibly another 4-5 days later. So there is a sign of a slightly changing pattern that would bring colder air to Texas for the end of February, starting on the 19th.

[Brent]

It's working.

[TexasF6]

IT'S HAPPENING IT'S HAPPENING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#TEXASSNOWISCOMING

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is back to a light freeze in the Dallas area the 21st. Still no significant cold across Texas. GFS does indicate that the giant low in the Gulf of Alaska may be starting to break down in 2 weeks. There is some cross-Polar flow by day 14. However, the flow pattern would still take the core of the cold air southeast vs. straight south down the plains. We'll get part of the cold air down here under that pattern. It's possible such a pattern change could allow for winter weather across TX as February winds down, though the current model runs don't have any winter weather across NE Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The cold will continue to head east i think, the trough retrograding towards central US, im not so sure about that unless the low in the GOA breaks dwn and moves west a bit. That November cold really teased us this winter

[Ntxw]

Euro definitely is a much better pattern as it pops NE Pacific ridge, its a much needed retrograding pattern.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It does look better, curious to see what it says after ten days, looks like a setup for a huge plains storm after that. La La Land though.

I think the key to the GOA Low is the high pressure near the equator. Its pumping up these lows in the GOA big time with a fierce jet stream all winter.

[Tireman4]

I quit...this flip flopping is making my head hurt..lol

[TexasF6]

Joe B said it is happening. As Porta always says, watch the pattern not the flipping floppy models! It's all coming together. Texas will see winter all the way to the coast!

[TheProfessor]

How come the models are always showing something good when I'm out of town, but when I get back they go back to showing wxman57 weather. I still have a slight hope that we will see something before winter ends, but it's almost too the point to where I want spring and storms to start.

[Sambucol]

Joe B said it is happening. As Porta always says, watch the pattern not the flipping floppy models! It's all coming together. Texas will see winter all the way to the coast!

Even down to upper TEXAS coast? What kind of winter weather might we have down here?

[TexasF6]

Probably ice Sambucol.