WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Higos has a resemblance to Vongfong when it was a category 1 or 2 yet this has much more significant poleward outflow channels but Vongfong had way better Microwave structure and Higos's center is displaced a few miles from the deepest convective activity because of a warm spot over the LLC which is a hint of possible development of an eye...

As outflow gets better, the GFS continues to bust with the storm moving W to WSW which is not at all a recurve

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 February 2015
<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°10'(12.2°)
E156°40'(156.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E154°35'(154.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50'(14.8°)
E152°40'(152.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E151°10'(151.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

Woah...

Higos now a typhoon, probrably first time we start off the year with 2 typhoons...Peak intensity is higher at 85 knots, a category 2...

Accuweather:

As of Sunday afternoon, EST, now Typhoon Higos (02W) is located approximately 800 miles east of Guam. Higos is moving west-southwestward at 4 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph with gusts to 90 mph. The winds increased Sunday afternoon to bring the storm to typhoon strength.
Higos is forecast to continue to slowly strengthen over the next 36 hours as it moves slowly west to northwestward. Higos is then expected to be influenced by an approaching cold front which will likely weaken the system. This cold front will also steer the remains of the storm off to the northeast as winds continue to weaken into the middle of the week. In any event, Higos is expected to pass northeast of Guam and not affect any land.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 082255 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HIGOS (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
800 AM CHST MON FEB 9 2015

UPDATED TO CORRECT HEADER

...HIGOS NOW A TYPHOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 156.5E
ABOUT 385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HIGOS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.5 EAST. HIGOS WAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...CURVING MORE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP TYPHOON HIGOS WELL EAST OF
THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. HIGOS IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 082116

A. TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS)

B. 08/2032Z

C. 12.35N

D. 156.47E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO . EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN YIELDS 4.5. MET AND
PT AGREE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1535Z 11.55N 156.95E MMHS
08/1804Z 12.00N 156.70E SSMS


DARLOW

[euro6208]

Very impressive...

[euro6208]

02W HIGOS 150209 0000 12.3N 156.4E WPAC 75 967

Up to 75 knots!

[cycloneye]

The official agency JMA still has not upgraded to Typhoon.

STS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 9 February 2015
<Analyses at 09/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°05'(12.1°)
E156°25'(156.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°05'(13.1°)
E154°55'(154.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E152°40'(152.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E152°30'(152.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[euro6208]

Actually 55 knots 10 min when converted to 1 min is already a typhoon...

[euro6208]

It better start moving or else it will weaken due to upwelling of cold water.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 677 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY A 082055Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 02W REMAINS IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE EAST AND
THE OTHER TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HIGOS WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS UNTIL THE STR EAST OF THE SYSTEM TAKES OVER
AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. WITH THE DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING TY 02W TO CONTINUE ITS
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU
24, TY HIGOS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED (20 TO
30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
ENTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT VWS, DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES
ABOVE 50 KNOTS LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 250NM SPREAD AFTERWARDS. BEYOND TAU 72, GFS
AND JENS EMBED THE SYSTEM IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WHILE THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE DEPICTS DISSIPATION AT TAU 120. BASED ON THE
ZONAL FLOW AND LACK OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW,
JTWC EXPECTS THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
IN THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND THE EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 090318
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HIGOS (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
200 PM CHST MON FEB 9 2015

...HIGOS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 156.2E
ABOUT 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 445 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HIGOS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST. HIGOS WAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...CURVING MORE TO THE NORTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON HIGOS WELL EAST OF THE
MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 MPH. HIGOS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR MINAMI TORI SHIMA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

Latest warning up to 80 knots! Peak intensity nudged upward to 90 knots.

Truly impressive for a typhoon in February. What an overachieving storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 658 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A MORE SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE MSI ALSO INSINUATES A PROBABLE EYE DEVELOPING. A 090410Z SSMI
37H MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI, MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND HEDGED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE T4.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POINT-SOURCE
THAT IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION
AND SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 02W
IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES (STR) TO
THE EAST ASSUMES THE STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HIGOS WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TY 02W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TY HIGOS
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, NAMELY
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG VWS, ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECAY THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BUT STILL INDICATES A
LARGE SPREAD. NVGM AND GFDN ARE THE OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD. JTWC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE REMAINING GUIDANCE,
POSITIONING THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 090907
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HIGOS (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
707 PM CHST MON FEB 9 2015

...HIGOS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 155.9E
ABOUT 425 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 445 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HIGOS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.9 EAST. HIGOS WAS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON HIGOS WELL
EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 MPH. HIGOS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR MINAMI TORI SHIMA. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 090919
TCSWNP

A. 02W (HIGOS)

B. 09/0832Z

C. 12.7N

D. 155.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/TMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS WELL DEFINED BANDING FOR 15/10 FOR A DT=4.5. LAST
VIS HAD 2 DEG CDO ALSO FOR DT=4.5. EMBEDDED CENTER WAS UNREALISTIC 5.0
DUE TO LACK OF EYE IN VIS OR IR BUT SOMETIMES IN MI DATA. MET=4.5 AND
PAT ALSO 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/0410Z 12.4N 156.2E SSMI
09/0546Z 12.5N 155.9E TMI


...SWANSON

[euro6208]

02W HIGOS 150209 1200 12.7N 155.8E WPAC 85 959

Who would have thought we would have a category 2 typhoon out there? in February!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If I am right, Higos is the strongest February typhoon in recorded history.

FINALLY!

TY 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 9 February 2015

<Analyses at 09/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°35'(12.6°)
E155°40'(155.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E153°55'(153.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E152°10'(152.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E152°30'(152.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[euro6208]

If I am right, Higos is the strongest February typhoon in recorded history.

FINALLY!

What data just came in when all data was showing a typhoon for over 12 hours for this upgrade?