WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If I am right, Higos is the strongest February typhoon in recorded history.

FINALLY!

What data just came in when all data was showing a typhoon for over 12 hours for this upgrade?

And at the same time, what proved JTWC's data then?

No biases but Higos did not look like a typhoon at all earlier this morning IMO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Higos proves that 1Q 2015 is the exact opposite of the same time in terms of intensity of storms... The second typhoon formed with Utor or Rumbia (debated) during 3Q 2013 while the second typhoon of 2015 formed at the second week of the second month of the year. Truly astonishing!

[euro6208]

If I am right, Higos is the strongest February typhoon in recorded history.

FINALLY!

What data just came in when all data was showing a typhoon for over 12 hours for this upgrade?

And at the same time, what proved JTWC's data then?

No biases but Higos did not look like a typhoon at all earlier this morning IMO

it's simple, a well defined microwave eye and dvorak numbers...Go look up and check the earlier post...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

"Dvorak numbers"

Actually JMA's 55 kts earlier equates to about 60-70 kts 1-min.... Actually neither the JTWC nor JMA was wrong with intensity then

[euro6208]

LOL I just went through the JTWC best track...

Monster database for the most active basin in the world...It's like trying to find a needle in a haystack!

Higos of 2015 is the 22nd typhoon to occur within January and February since 1945!

So not at all uncommon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

LOL I just went through the JTWC best track...

Monster database for the most active basin in the world...It's like trying to find a needle in a haystack!

Higos of 2015 is the 22nd typhoon to occur within January and February since 1945!

So not at all uncommon...

It is probably the first typhoon in February

To prove your statement, give me 5 examples of Feb typhoons

It is actually VERY uncommon, out of 500+ typhoons overall, 22 is just about <6% of all which is a great rarity

[euro6208]

What is the record strongest Feb typhoon?

Record strongest ever was Super Typhoon Mitag back in el nino 2002. It actually peaked as a category 5 monster 140 knots in March but still a february system...

Mitag is possibly the strongest and earliest category 5 in the basin...A category 5 in January 1958 is still questionable...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What is the record strongest Feb typhoon?

Record strongest ever was Super Typhoon Mitag back in el nino 2002. It actually peaked as a category 5 monster 140 knots in March but still a february system...

Mitag is possibly the strongest and earliest category 5 in the basin...A category 5 in January 1958 is still questionable...

Mitag is considered as a March typhoon actually

[euro6208]

What is the record strongest Feb typhoon?

Record strongest ever was Super Typhoon Mitag back in el nino 2002. It actually peaked as a category 5 monster 140 knots in March but still a february system...

Mitag is possibly the strongest and earliest category 5 in the basin...A category 5 in January 1958 is still questionable...

Mitag is considered as a March typhoon actually

Yup listed on many sites as one but JMA and JTWC had it's birth on the 28th and 26th of february so yeah a february system...Fascinating...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Quite conservative. I'm thinking 110 kts at peak

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.4N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.2N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.1N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.1N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.6N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.2N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 155.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

LOL I just went through the JTWC best track...

Monster database for the most active basin in the world...It's like trying to find a needle in a haystack!

Higos of 2015 is the 22nd typhoon to occur within January and February since 1945!

So not at all uncommon...

It is probably the first typhoon in February

To prove your statement, give me 5 examples of Feb typhoons

It is actually VERY uncommon, out of 500+ typhoons overall, 22 is just about <6% of all which is a great rarity

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=116170&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=140

Typhoon Faxai 75 knots 2014



Super Typhoon Mitag 140 knots 2002



Typhoon Judy 85 knots 1986



Typhoon Nancy 120 knots 1970



Typhoon Irma 100 knots 1953

WP, 02, 1953021800, , BEST, 0, 71N, 1671E, 15
WP, 02, 1953021806, , BEST, 0, 71N, 1658E, 15
WP, 02, 1953021812, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1640E, 15
WP, 02, 1953021818, , BEST, 0, 70N, 1626E, 15
WP, 02, 1953021900, , BEST, 0, 69N, 1609E, 15
WP, 02, 1953021906, , BEST, 0, 69N, 1593E, 15
WP, 02, 1953021912, , BEST, 0, 71N, 1579E, 25
WP, 02, 1953021918, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1562E, 25
WP, 02, 1953022000, , BEST, 0, 79N, 1548E, 25
WP, 02, 1953022006, , BEST, 0, 82N, 1531E, 40
WP, 02, 1953022012, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1519E, 40
WP, 02, 1953022018, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1503E, 40
WP, 02, 1953022100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1488E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022106, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1471E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022112, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1456E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022118, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1446E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022200, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1435E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022206, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1423E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1413E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022218, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1405E, 75
WP, 02, 1953022300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1396E, 100
WP, 02, 1953022306, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1383E, 65
WP, 02, 1953022312, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1371E, 65
WP, 02, 1953022318, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1360E, 65
WP, 02, 1953022400, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1349E, 65
WP, 02, 1953022406, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1334E, 65
WP, 02, 1953022412, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1319E, 65
WP, 02, 1953022418, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1302E, 40
WP, 02, 1953022500, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1288E, 40
WP, 02, 1953022506, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1272E, 25
WP, 02, 1953022512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1256E, 25

Higos is just the 6th typhoon to occur in February since records began in 1945!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T4.5 FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TY 02W IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGES (STR) TO THE EAST ASSUMES THE STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HIGOS WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM ALLOWING TY 02W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TY HIGOS WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS LEADING TO A
WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAUS 48 LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS,
NAMELY SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG VWS, ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECAY THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKERS BY TAU 72. NVGM
AND GFDN REMAIN THE OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. JTWC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE,
POSITIONING CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS A 091751Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A COMPOSITE OF ALL AGENCIES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WHICH IS
OFFSET BY VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT. TY 02W IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY, WITH
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, EXPECT RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS VWS INCREASES NORTH OF THE 18TH PARALLEL AND THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP
NORTH OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
WHICH LEADS TO AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 FEB 2015 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 13:35:28 N Lon : 154:37:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 980.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.8

Center Temp : -73.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 68km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.4 degrees

[ohno]

Wow! Nobody cares about this except for three amateurish forumers. Hahahaha.

[ohno]

If only the GFS and GFS Ensemble are showing the recurve, and the rest show westerly tracks, then why did the JTWC put weight on one model only and disregarding the majority yet insist on recurve? Quite disappointing. They should put more weight on the ECMWF in terms of tracking and path. The models are trending west and south and it's also surprising they follow the stubborn GFS which also tends to underestimate the subtropical ridge especially with two out of the three past storms. (Hagupit and Mekkhala)

Please please please...do not remove your disclaimer...LOL!

[euro6208]

Wow! Nobody cares about this except for three amateurish forumers. Hahahaha.

Yup they are still waiting for their hurricane season to start...Atlantic...East Pacific...

[mrbagyo]

it's developing an eye feature right now.