Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

Not seeing much to go on as far as Arctic air for our area over the next couple weeks though it does look cooler than we have been recently. I do not think the models have a clue on what will happen late this month with the opposing teles so they are showing zonal flow by default.

And Higos?

Rapidly intensified and nearing cat 4 status. WWB over the equatorial regions is doing the job (mjo). One of the most intense typhoons for Feb. It is not large compared to the larger GOA trough but as that retrogrades you have to wonder if the two are coinciding with the wavelength position shift.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not seeing much to go on as far as Arctic air for our area over the next couple weeks though it does look cooler than we have been recently. I do not think the models have a clue on what will happen late this month with the opposing teles so they are showing zonal flow by default.

And Higos?

I would love for Higos to break down the North Pacific pattern, but I am not sure it is large enough to affect the pattern in a major way. I am far from an expect on Pacific tropical weather and its effects on the atmosphere so I may be wrong.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not seeing much to go on as far as Arctic air for our area over the next couple weeks though it does look cooler than we have been recently. I do not think the models have a clue on what will happen late this month with the opposing teles so they are showing zonal flow by default.

And Higos?

Rapidly intensified and nearing cat 4 status. WWB over the equatorial regions is doing the job (mjo). One of the most intense typhoons for Feb. It is not large compared to the larger GOA trough but as that retrogrades you have to wonder if the two are coinciding with the wavelength position shift.

It will be very interesting to watch how Higos affects the overall pattern over the Pacific. Now if it were a large typhoon I would be much more confident in it causing a significant -EPO which is what we need. If we do not get that maybe we can get a big Northeast Atlantic storm to pump up a -WNAO.

[Ntxw]

We need some meteograms for the 12z GfS

[Brent]

Interest raised:

This storm next week seems to be trending colder and further south as it gets closer for now

That said: Everything else has trended north this winter so I'm still sort of convinced it will

[TeamPlayersBlue]

According to models, it looks like the Typhoon will have zero effect on the ULL pattern. If anything, i believe it could strengthen the Low in GOA.

[Portastorm]

As soon as I saw post from 57 I knew what it would state lol

I was only stating my observations of the model runs.

I didn't see anything in JB's video the other day about snow down to the Gulf Coast. He mentioned the I-20 corridor (Dallas to Jackson, MS) for possible winter weather. I agree it's possible, but snow for that area wouldn't be in my forecast just yet.

Meanwhile, had a nice 35 mile ride yesterday in shorts/short sleeves. It was still a bit cool when the clouds blocked the sun, even with a high of 77.

How about some observations from TODAY's model runs?!

[TheProfessor]

well both the GFS and CMC are both very cold for the Eastern half of the U.S, and both show snow in Texas. And both I won't trust until 3-5 days out.

[Tireman4]

As soon as I saw post from 57 I knew what it would state lol

I was only stating my observations of the model runs.

I didn't see anything in JB's video the other day about snow down to the Gulf Coast. He mentioned the I-20 corridor (Dallas to Jackson, MS) for possible winter weather. I agree it's possible, but snow for that area wouldn't be in my forecast just yet.

Meanwhile, had a nice 35 mile ride yesterday in shorts/short sleeves. It was still a bit cool when the clouds blocked the sun, even with a high of 77.

How about some observations from TODAY's model runs?!

The last time I saw him, he was motoring past my office laughing at me. Yeah, have fun Wxman 57. Winter is not over sir.

[wxman57]

We need some meteograms for the 12z GfS

Here you go. GFS has dropped the forecast of freezing temps across NE & SE TX for this weekend in favor of lows in the 40s to near 50. However, that Arctic front around the middle of next week looks rather potent. Good thing that the core of Arctic air isn't coming straight down the Plains. Note the forecast of teens down to the FL Panhandle next Thursday and a freeze down to Ft. Myers. Tampa will likely be colder than Dallas with this front. We're getting a small piece of the Arctic air in Texas. Not enough for any significant winter weather, most likely.

The long-range GFS still keeps that low in the Gulf of Alaska through 384hrs. The pattern isn't yet there that would drive these Arctic fronts straight south to Texas. It's quite possible that could change over the next 2-4 weeks, of course.

Just looked at the 12Z Euro - it's warmer (less cold) than the 12Z GFS for next week. Light freeze to Dallas on Wednesday then mid 30s for a low on Thursday there. It has snow in east-central OK eastward through central Arkansas next Monday night/Tuesday and again next Thursday night. Nothing anywhere near the D-FW area. Close but no cigar once again. I'd tend to buy the Euro's temperatures more than the GFS' for next week.

And, just saw the 12Z Canadian. It's vastly different from both the GFS & Euro, taking more cold air south down the Plains a day or two earlier than the GFS or Euro. Temps below freezing up in Dallas next Tuesday & very cold next Wed. Freeze down to the TX/LA coasts Thursday morning. I think it's not handling the fast-moving upper flow well and is probably wrong. At least I hope so...

DFW - a little cool rain on Tuesday morning followed by a freeze on Wed & Thu mornings:


Houston - light freeze maybe next Thursday? We'll see...


Arctic air centered over the Ohio Valley next Wednesday:


SE U.S. Temperatures next Thursday from the 12Z GFS:


Cold air building in Canada by 384hrs.


However, my friend, the big low in the Gulf of Alaska remains there at 384hrs, likely shunting the cold air in Canada southeastward rather than south down the Plains:

[Texas Snowman]

Just came across this link in my e-mail files. Brings back some great memories.

Ahh, remember the good old days when Wxman 57 could offer no daily dissertations for why it wasn't going to get cold in Texas and why it wasn't going to snow in North Texas:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=wintersnow09-10

[wxman57]

Just came across this link in my e-mail files. Brings back some great memories.

Ahh, remember the good old days when Wxman 57 could offer no daily dissertations for why it wasn't going to get cold in Texas and why it wasn't going to snow in North Texas:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=wintersnow09-10

Ah, that was a bad winter. I much prefer today. It's now 80 in Mineral Wells and near 70 in Dallas. Is that an 87 degrees just north of the Red River north of Wichita Falls? Perfect winter weather! I just hope that Canadian model is wrong...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/

I have a new avatar for you, Texas Snowman. Looks just like you after this week's warmth:

[Ralph's Weather]

Just came across this link in my e-mail files. Brings back some great memories.

Ahh, remember the good old days when Wxman 57 could offer no daily dissertations for why it wasn't going to get cold in Texas and why it wasn't going to snow in North Texas:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=wintersnow09-10

I wish I had been in Lindale that winter instead of College Station, though we did get some down there. This winter is so disappointing because there were signs we could have had a similar one this year. We just have not been able to get enough blocking to send the cold down to meet with what has been adequate moisture in cold, but not cold enough air.

[wxman57]

I wish I had been in Lindale that winter instead of College Station, though we did get some down there. This winter is so disappointing because there were signs we could have had a similar one this year. We just have not been able to get enough blocking to send the cold down to meet with what has been adequate moisture in cold, but not cold enough air.

I really did think we had a shot at a pretty nasty winter in Texas this year (as of last fall). The winter of '76-'77 was looking like a good analog at the time. That didn't work out too well. Things set up very cold in mid November but that ridge across the Pole couldn't hold on, leading to the development of the huge upper low in the Gulf of Alaska. The relatively warm water off the West U.S. Coast and western Canada has played a big role in its persistence.

[wxman57]

Typical radar problems in Texas today:

[Portastorm]

Typical radar problems in Texas today:

Had we been getting a nice cold, snowy and icy winter ... those rattlesnakes near Granger would be hiding in their holes. No ... instead we get sunshine and horribly above normal temperatures. Don't you see now, wxman57, just how wrong this weather is?!

[Stormcenter]

Excellent analysis wxman57 of what has gone wrong this winter for us cold air lovers down south.

I wish I had been in Lindale that winter instead of College Station, though we did get some down there. This winter is so disappointing because there were signs we could have had a similar one this year. We just have not been able to get enough blocking to send the cold down to meet with what has been adequate moisture in cold, but not cold enough air.

I really did think we had a shot at a pretty nasty winter in Texas this year (as of last fall). The winter of '76-'77 was looking like a good analog at the time. That didn't work out too well. Things set up very cold in mid November but that ridge across the Pole couldn't hold on, leading to the development of the huge upper low in the Gulf of Alaska. The relatively warm water off the West U.S. Coast and western Canada has played a big role in its persistence.

[Ralph's Weather]

The placement of SST anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific plays a huge role in our winter weather as this winter and last winter have shown. The GOA warm pool has continued from last winter, but this winter that warmth extends down the West Coast.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The placement of SST anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific plays a huge role in our winter weather as this winter and last winter have shown. The GOA warm pool has continued from last winter, but this winter that warmth extends down the West Coast.

Yeah this year the warmth was a bit further east, so the high has been based further east as a result. Curious how the rapid snowfall advance in Siberia effected our winter this year. It has been cooler with HUGE highs. Remember we had some monster highs come down earlier this winter.

[somethingfunny]

Higos is not as strong as Nuri was, and Nuri had an extraordinary transition to an extratropical system, so I don't expect the same effect here...but there should be some effect, and the modeling has been vaguely interesting enough to keep me watching.