2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Development in about 100 hours or so. This is one compact typhoon, 970 mb, east of Guam. GFS wants to recurve this but it's going to be really close to a hit. Let's see what future runs show on Higos...




Latest run also developing Bavi at 384 hours...

[euro6208]

Getting more vigorous...I think we might see an invest later on today

[euro6208]

Very robust 00Z GFS bottoming Higos to 959mb and the latest 06Z deepens it a bit more to 952mb as it recurves east of the Marianas

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Or if conditions get conducive enough, then Higos may be a strong storm after all, given the strong agreement and consistency of tropical cyclogenesis over the area next week. My prediction has a possibility and chance that it may become true...

[euro6208]

94W THREAD

Hyperlink Finally designated as an invest...

[euro6208]

00Z GFS is back showing twins...forecast to develop Bavi southwest of Higos (94W)




NAVGEM and CMC also showing a secondary disturbance developing southeast of Yap within the near-equatorial trough axis saturday with all three showing a westward track...

[euro6208]

Typhoon Bavi approaching Philippines...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS still indicating a strong tropical storm/typhoon to begin taking shape in 60 hours around 140E but not until 222 hours at 130E does it strengthen into a weak tropical storm...

Landfall near Tacloban...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2013 had its 2nd typhoon on Aug 13-17 with Utor
2014 had it on July 1 with Neoguri
2015 had it on Feb 9 with Higos

[euro6208]

2015 starts off impressive...First two storms have achieve typhoon strength. Higos, in February!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And possibly record breaking

Mekkhala became the strongest storm to impact the Philippines and to form in the western Pacific Ocean in the month of January, which is an unusually quiet time of year. In average, the first typhoon forms much later. Much more uncommon and unusual, an even stronger storm named Higos became perhaps the strongest February typhoon in history and possibly the only since a vast majority are weak tropical storms - as it is now a category 2 typhoon which is steadily intensifying.

[euro6208]

And possibly record breaking

Mekkhala became the strongest storm to impact the Philippines and to form in the western Pacific Ocean in the month of January, which is an unusually quiet time of year. In average, the first typhoon forms much later. Much more uncommon and unusual, an even stronger storm named Higos became perhaps the strongest February typhoon in history and possibly the only since a vast majority are weak tropical storms - as it is now a category 2 typhoon which is steadily intensifying.

Strongest february typhoon was Category 5 140 knots Super Typhoon Mitag back in el nino 2002...Formation in February but peaked in March...Strongest and earliest typhoon in the basin...A category 5 in Jan 1958 is questionable...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And possibly record breaking

Mekkhala became the strongest storm to impact the Philippines and to form in the western Pacific Ocean in the month of January, which is an unusually quiet time of year. In average, the first typhoon forms much later. Much more uncommon and unusual, an even stronger storm named Higos became perhaps the strongest February typhoon in history and possibly the only since a vast majority are weak tropical storms - as it is now a category 2 typhoon which is steadily intensifying.

Strongest february typhoon was Category 5 140 knots Super Typhoon Mitag back in el nino 2002...Formation in February but peaked in March...Strongest and earliest typhoon in the basin...A category 5 in Jan 1958 is questionable...

Mitag became a typhoon March 2 2002

[euro6208]

And possibly record breaking

Mekkhala became the strongest storm to impact the Philippines and to form in the western Pacific Ocean in the month of January, which is an unusually quiet time of year. In average, the first typhoon forms much later. Much more uncommon and unusual, an even stronger storm named Higos became perhaps the strongest February typhoon in history and possibly the only since a vast majority are weak tropical storms - as it is now a category 2 typhoon which is steadily intensifying.

Strongest february typhoon was Category 5 140 knots Super Typhoon Mitag back in el nino 2002...Formation in February but peaked in March...Strongest and earliest typhoon in the basin...A category 5 in Jan 1958 is questionable...

Mitag became a typhoon March 2 2002

But still technically a february storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

But still technically a february storm

But technically it peaked as a tropical storm on February

[euro6208]

The WPAC going balistic...Could we see Typhoon Bavi, potential 7th only typhoon in feb since records began, later this month? We're not done with Higos...

This could be a sign of things to come as we head deeper in 2015...

[euro6208]

GFS bottoms Bavi at 950mb just east of P.I and recurves it but Palau might get some tropical storm force winds



CMC has formation more east, southeast of Yap



NAVGEM same thinking as GFS

[euro6208]

Models latching onto this area that will become our next storm, Bavi...Models indicate that little to no development is expected for the next 6 days as this tracks to the west...It then starts to develop near 140 E and steady strengthening, passing south and west of Palau and slowly recurves with a high pressure to the northeast...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS aiming for Guiuan/Tacloban region again...