Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Overnight GFS has warmed back up to reality not showing a freeze for Central Florida any longer.

[Sanibel]

:uarrow: where are you seeing that? NWS has lows in the low 50's around Ft Myers Thursday night.

TWC


Now it backed off to 45* Thursday night and 41* Sunday. Only 60* as a high on Sunday. That's getting to our winter bottom range.

[gatorcane]

12 GFS again show no freeze for Central Florida so that is now three runs in a row. Looks like King Euro may win again!

[northjaxpro]

12 GFS again show no freeze for Central Florida so that is now three runs in a row. Looks like King Euro may win again!

Well, it looked for awhile that the GFS may scoop the EURO regarding this upcoming weekend, especially when the EURO was beginning to side with GFS on a couple of runs yesterday. But,now, GFS it is now back to the warmer solution. I went with my initial inclination, which I posted yesterday to stick by EURO's warmer solution it was showing a couple of days ago, and appearently , at least for the moment, this will be the case. Freezing temps still a good bet across Northern Florida later this weekend.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't really understand what the NWS said but I think climo corrupt the model colder trend:

his surface high then may settle over west
central Florida around 1020mb by Monday morning. Model guidance
may begin to trend colder for this period, as MOS is typically
polluted by climatology at this time range. A solution somewhat
colder than the 12z mex MOS is favored, leaning more towards the
0z European model (ecmwf) MOS. However, the 12z European model (ecmwf) 2m temperatures have trended warmer
from their 0z counterparts.

[SFLcane]

So much for that FL freeze

Typically need to see large negative NAO with neg AO.

[asd123]

The GFS has been persistently hinting at big cold and possibly snow for cfla in about 9 days.
Temps in cfla are forecasted to be near to below freezing next Wednesday night and below freezing next Thursday night, and hey, look at this:

Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:


Regarding this current upcoming cold blast, the models have backed off considerably off the freeze and are only forecasting for cfla: Thursday night: low 30s, Friday night: upper 30s, Saturday night: upper 30s, Sunday night: upper 30s low 40s.

[NDG]

Don't really understand what the NWS said but I think climo corrupt the model colder trend:

his surface high then may settle over west
central Florida around 1020mb by Monday morning. Model guidance
may begin to trend colder for this period, as MOS is typically
polluted by climatology at this time range. A solution somewhat
colder than the 12z mex MOS is favored, leaning more towards the
0z European model (ecmwf) MOS. However, the 12z European model (ecmwf) 2m temperatures have trended warmer
from their 0z counterparts.

They are talking about the MOS forecast guidance, which in the 4-7 day range is biased based on climatology. I have noticed that for the most part there is a 50/50 chance that climatology comes out winning over the models' raw numbers.
Up to last night's run the Euro was calling for widespread light freeze for the I-4 corridor for Monday morning but its latest 12z run came in much warmer, I am sure the GFS will eventually come along with the Euro for Monday morning's forecasted lows.
Right now for Saturday morning all indications are pointing to not a damaging freeze but for a good chance for frost in wind sheltered areas across most of central FL down to Lake Okeechobee and parts of SW FL.

[NDG]

The GFS has been persistently hinting at big cold and possibly snow for cfla in about 9 days.
Temps in cfla are forecasted to be near to below freezing next Wednesday night and below freezing next Thursday night, and hey, look at this:

Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
http://i59.tinypic.com/28k696r.png

Regarding this current upcoming cold blast, the models have backed off considerably off the freeze and are only forecasting for cfla: Thursday night: low 30s, Friday night: upper 30s, Saturday night: upper 30s, Sunday night: upper 30s low 40s.

But after the GFS once again busting on its medium range forecast, is it worth it even mentioning such an extreme forecast?
But I appreciate you posting it, I had no idea it was forecasting snow for central FL next week

[asd123]

The GFS has been persistently hinting at big cold and possibly snow for cfla in about 9 days.
Temps in cfla are forecasted to be near to below freezing next Wednesday night and below freezing next Thursday night, and hey, look at this:

Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
http://i59.tinypic.com/28k696r.png

Regarding this current upcoming cold blast, the models have backed off considerably off the freeze and are only forecasting for cfla: Thursday night: low 30s, Friday night: upper 30s, Saturday night: upper 30s, Sunday night: upper 30s low 40s.

But after the GFS once again busting on its medium range forecast, is it worth it even mentioning such an extreme forecast?
But I appreciate you posting it, I had no idea it was forecasting snow for central FL next week

Yeah the GFS busted, but the GFS and the Euro had been persistently forecasting a freeze. I am very shocked the GFS busted and the Euro followed the GFS's warmer trend. I thought this would be the winter saver Maybe next week will be it.

[NDG]

The GFS has been persistently hinting at big cold and possibly snow for cfla in about 9 days.
Temps in cfla are forecasted to be near to below freezing next Wednesday night and below freezing next Thursday night, and hey, look at this:

Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
http://i59.tinypic.com/28k696r.png

Regarding this current upcoming cold blast, the models have backed off considerably off the freeze and are only forecasting for cfla: Thursday night: low 30s, Friday night: upper 30s, Saturday night: upper 30s, Sunday night: upper 30s low 40s.

But after the GFS once again busting on its medium range forecast, is it worth it even mentioning such an extreme forecast?
But I appreciate you posting it, I had no idea it was forecasting snow for central FL next week

Yeah the GFS busted, but the GFS and the Euro had been persistently forecasting a freeze. I am very shocked the GFS busted and the Euro followed the GFS's warmer trend. I thought this would be the winter saver Maybe next week will be it.

Take my advice, don't get your hopes too high, chances of the GFS busting once again are very high with the NAO and AO remaining positive.

[asd123]

I will be cautiously optimistic... However keep in mind that the PNA is strongly positive, and the WPO EPO are very negative. Maybe that will override the stubborn NAO AO?

Interesting reads on Orlando, FL snow
Just discovered these: https://twitter.com/weatherbell/status/ ... 8077705216

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/565311288835047424

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. Hey asd123, keep holding the faith with the GFS. The GFS has busted a lot this winter, BUT, it did get one HUGE thing right this season, and that was our ocean effect snow event a month ago. The GFS did have that in the forecast 120 hours before that event, which that GFS run is shown on the Deep South Winterwx Thread which SeGaBob sent to me just before our surprise event.. So, even though the GFS has done poorly this season, it could sneak up and get something right, so keep that sort of thing in mind just to lighten things up.

I will be interested to see how the models do tomorrow concering this weekend's cold event. This could be a situation where the models may trend back colder as the event gets closer over the next day or two.

Of particular note will be yet another potential significant cold spell by the middle opf next week, during the timeframe of Feb 17-19. Long range runs are picking up on a potential deep upper trough once aqgain sharpening and potentially bringing freezes to North Florida. The models are also developing another potential winter storm which could impact much of the Appalachians up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US next week as well. Next week really looks interesting, so Old Man Winter may have some tricks up his sleeve still yet to come..

[psyclone]

the freeze threat does appear to be decreasing with time and that suits me just fine. however, the next 2 weeks are likely to feature below normal temps so even if this threat disappears another could emerge.

[gatorcane]

Yeah psyclone, a cold pattern looks to have commenced. The GFS is even showing some snow across central Florida in 9 days as asd123 pointed out. But the sun angle continues to get higher and days longer each day so time is running out on a deep and damaging freeze for peninsula Florida. Still, will be interesting to see if a freeze makes it into Central Florida over the next 10 days with this cold pattern.

By the way it is supposed to be so brutally cold up north in the northeast starting Fri with some of the coldest temperatures in the past several years with wind chills in the -20F to as low as -50F range. So while the upcoming pattern looks cold for Florida, I will certainly take our weather any day over that!

[NDG]

I was just thinking how consistently and persistently the GFS was during the past few days, I am sure it made the forecasters believe its wrong after all solutions for at least a quick moment.
The strawberry farmers are breathing a little easier this morning.

[Sanibel]

Backing off even more to 69*-47* for Sunday, which is just winter cool but warm in the ever increasing sun angle.

[TheStormExpert]

Well looks like yet another huge busy for the GFS (not suprising). The NAO has been very very stubborn this winter in terms of being positive basically all winter to date, while the AO/PNA roller coaster ride back and forth.

IMO, the GFS is worth nothing beyond 3-4 days.

So far this winter the coldest reading at my house was 46.2°F back in mid December with that prolonged 2-week period of cool/cold weather we had. We may come close to getting colder than 46.2°F this weekend but with the warming trend of the models I'm starting to question that.

At the end of the next 2-week period the PNA is forecasted to trend negative which should put a end to the prolonged below normal temps. we've been experiencing for the past 2-1/2 weeks!

[gatorcane]

Here we go with the GFS again for a freeze threat for Florida. But look it has the support from the ECMWF on this one (second image)

[asd123]

Here we go with the GFS again for a freeze threat for Florida. But look it has the support from the ECMWF on this one (second image)

http://i57.tinypic.com/2zjmkg2.png[/img]

http://i60.tinypic.com/143136s.png

To really show the ECMWF support, I feel this image is more appropriate:
Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:



Climatology is good to show the cold in perspective, but actual temps are more relevant, in my opinion.
Also on Weatherbell, the ECMWF shows a huge dusting of snow across the deep south (total accumulated snowfall) into north Florida Wednesday into Thursday.