Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

Note that those 6Z GFS operational temperatures are colder than almost all of its ensemble members for Dallas and colder than all members for Houston. That would not be very likely. For example, on the coldest day (Thu), the ensembles have a range of 21 to 46 for Houston's low. Operational has 19.

That is a very good point to raise and puts the 6z op run for the GFS into doubt. However, the undeniable fact is that the model trend is for colder next week and perhaps MUCH colder. Frankly, the Euro op runs have been all over the place. Yesterday's 0z run was cold and the 12z run was not for Texas. Now, we see the 0z run today going colder again. Of course we know that a week out we shouldn't be paying much attention to surface depictions. But if you look at the 500mb flow from both the 0z and 6z GFS, you see a large and deep trough over the central CONUS. If the source region for that air coming south is cold enough, there won't be much to stop it into Texas. Food for thought.

[Ntxw]

To be fair to wxman57 he did say a few days ago a pattern shift could occur around the 19th with a retrograding GOA low to the Aleutians. He wanted some proof of something to change persistence so I threw out a typhoon and behold it occured! So its not like this is some big surprise, just the operational guidance is starting to latch on. It is the changes in the Pacific that is forcing the reshuffling of the wavelengths.

[wxman57]

They'll be pulling the handle on the 12Z GFS slot machine in another hour. We'll see if it comes up 3 snowflakes for Texas again, or maybe it will be:

[Texas Snowman]

Let me guess. If they show warm weather and other shenanigans, you're all in and back to "Winter is over in Texas."

[Texas Snowman]

or maybe it will be:

No, the firedevil weather, that's summertime stuff here in Texas. You know, late April.

[wxman57]

I like the "Run Comparison" section of Tropical Tidbits' website. At 138hrs, the 12Z GFS appears to be indicating colder air moving into Texas next Tuesday than the 6Z run:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_comp138.html

Here's the 12Z panel for 138hrs:


And here's the 06Z:

[wxman57]

Here's the 6Z GFS forecast for 2m temps next Tuesday night at midnight:


And the 12Z:

[orangeblood]

Yeah, 12Z GFS definitely stronger/further southwest with the ULL....Bear watch in full effect!!!

[wxman57]

Also, 12Z GFS is drier across central and NE TX as in no snow behind the front.

[orangeblood]

Also, 12Z GFS is drier across central and NE TX as in no snow behind the front.

IMO, wouldn't get too occupied with the precip amounts quite yet, cold air and 500 MB setup is most important at this point

[weatherdude1108]

According to models, it looks like the Typhoon will have zero effect on the ULL pattern. If anything, i believe it could strengthen the Low in GOA.

I wouldn't fully agree with this. Aside from enhancing the passing trough above it (which it may or may not do) tropical systems as this brings heat ahead and above. It may enhance the ridging along the west coast poleward as the flux of heat is being pumped up. Tropical systems themselves are quite small in the grand scheme but they are enhancers or perhaps a manifestation of a change in paradigm/regime.

For example, Higos is likely spawned by westerly wind burst in Nino regions 4 and 3.4. This is usually because of a favorable MJO, which creates the tropical forcing to enhance ridging above all the tropical convection. The typhoon when formed enhances the westerlies and you have a runaway effect keeping the MJO in those favorable phases.

Courtesy WSI Energy twitter if you prefer it in visual form

http://i58.tinypic.com/21bm2vp.png

That is a great visual aid! Then again being visually oriented, I have always liked illustrations with text/speech.

[wxman57]

Another comparison of 2m temps between the 6Z GFS and 12Z. Charts below are for Wed and Thu lows.

First, Wednesday's 12Z temps from the 6Z GFS:


12Z GFS for next Wednesday morning - cold coming in faster. Down to 24 in Houston and 15-18 in Dallas area!


Now Thursday's 12Z temps from the 6Z GFS. 12-16F across D-FW and 18-21F across Houston:


And the 12Z Run - about 10F warmer in both locations:

[orangeblood]

Difference in the temps above appears to whether snow is on the ground or not - huge implications on temp forecast/too early to make that call!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z brought the hammer all the way down to the coast for us.All about timing though when t comes to the white stuff.

[Ralph's Weather]

Also, 12Z GFS is drier across central and NE TX as in no snow behind the front.

IMO, wouldn't get too occupied with the precip amounts quite yet, cold air and 500 MB setup is most important at this point

And cold it is. Mid teens for lows and highs around 30 across NE TX Wed would be incredible following what we have been stuck with recently. If that cold comes and the moisture shown is other runs comes, wow. It is still way too early to get too much into sensible weather, but it sure is intriguing. I am still holding out hope for a quick version of 2010.

[Ntxw]

The pattern to deliver is there. It starts late this weekend and is not in total La La land! 4th quarter comeback and win in OT March.

I sense biking weather woes for a week or two

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Difference in the temps above appears to whether snow is on the ground or not - huge implications on temp forecast/too early to make that call!!!

Hmmm, 12Z GFS seems to have MORE snow across TX than the 06Z:

Here's the 6Z valid next Tuesday night:


And the 12Z for the same period:

[wxman57]

The pattern to deliver is there. It starts late this weekend and is not in total La La land! 4th quarter comeback and win in OT March.

I sense biking weather woes for a week or two

I don't know, Lucy has a devilish grin on her face as she sets the football down...

More 12Z GFS coming in. Has a 1040mb high dropping straight south into the Lower RGV. Hard freeze indicated down to the coast. Further comparison of snow amounts indicates less depth in the 12Z GFS but greater coverage of flurries.

Perhaps I need to move farther south - fast!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The pattern to deliver is there. It starts late this weekend and is not in total La La land! 4th quarter comeback and win in OT March.

I sense biking weather woes for a week or two

I don't know, Lucy has a devilish grin on her face as she sets the football down...

More 12Z GFS coming in. Has a 1040mb high dropping straight south into the Lower RGV. Hard freeze indicated down to the coast. Further comparison of snow amounts indicates less depth in the 12Z GFS but greater coverage of flurries.

Yeah looks funky, maybe that typhoon will help throw up higher heights after all! That high comes ALL the way down to the Valley. Just have to remind myself, too far out, its too far out....

Lets see what the Euro thinks of all of this, although im expecting it to show a panhandle storm, rather than the football Lucy just put down.

[Tireman4]

The pattern to deliver is there. It starts late this weekend and is not in total La La land! 4th quarter comeback and win in OT March.

I sense biking weather woes for a week or two

I don't know, Lucy has a devilish grin on her face as she sets the football down...

More 12Z GFS coming in. Has a 1040mb high dropping straight south into the Lower RGV. Hard freeze indicated down to the coast. Further comparison of snow amounts indicates less depth in the 12Z GFS but greater coverage of flurries.

Perhaps I need to move farther south - fast!

Or, most honorable sir, you could do what I do. Get an indoor trainer.