Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

Made some graphics off my workstation using the 12z EC.

First, 6am CST temps next Wed:


and next Thursday morning:


Projected snowfall Tuesday. The map is contoured for every 0.25" using a 10:1 ratio. Blue dots are major cities.

[Rgv20]

Looking interesting mid next week! Highs in the low 40s for the RGV??

[Portastorm]

Well much to his credit, wxman57 has been a real sport today and has provided us many nice maps of projected winter/wintry weather in Texas next week. I don't think any of us can honestly say that he was a no-show. As always, we are obliged for your presence on this forum and your expertise and dialogue.

Now, give us a few weeks of a brutal winter and we'll return the temperature controls back to you by mid March.

[Big O]

Made some graphics off my workstation using the 12z EC.

First, 6am CST temps next Wed:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/euro12zwed.JPG

and next Thursday morning:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/euro12zthu.JPG

Projected snowfall Tuesday. The map is contoured for every 0.25" using a 10:1 ratio. Blue dots are major cities.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow.JPG

How is the algorithm you use different from that used by Weather Bell? What snow-to-liquid ratio does WxBell use? I thought they used 10:1 also. In addition, doesn't the anomalous strength and apparent depth of the forecasted cold make use of their algorithm appropriate in this particular case?

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows Texas under siege from a big arctic outbreak:

[gboudx]

Looks like I may be able to put a dent in the firewood I have left. Was getting concerned I'd have so much leftover for the mice and snakes to make a home in.

[Tireman4]

12Z ECMWF shows Texas under siege from a big arctic outbreak:

Well, I am not going to be a Debbie Downer, but I have been left at the altar too many times this year. I will believe it 3 days out. That is all I have to say about that.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I like the odds of this happening though. That low in the GOA cant last forever, and there is cold air in Canada. Combine that with the High off the CA coast CONSTANTLY wanting to cause trouble, i think we are due for a cold outbreak.

[gboudx]

Well, I am not going to be a Debbie Downer, but I have been left at the altar too many times this year. I will believe it 3 days out. That is all I have to say about that.

Ha same here. I need to see consistency, especially into Sunday. Even then, I carry a standard believe-it-when-I-see-it rule for wintry precip.

[Snowman67]

Any idea if we are talking about a deep layer or shallow layer of cold air with this front?

[Ntxw]

I like cold, I hope we get it. We need to drain it so that when mid March comes we can go into full spring and not a third consecutive faux spring. Get cold when its supposed to be cold and let planting and thunderstorm season be what it's supposed to be.

In other news, looks like we will get the ONI values for the weak Nino and may persist through summer. Still dreaming of 1903-1906

[wxman57]

Made some graphics off my workstation using the 12z EC.

First, 6am CST temps next Wed:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/euro12zwed.JPG

and next Thursday morning:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/euro12zthu.JPG

Projected snowfall Tuesday. The map is contoured for every 0.25" using a 10:1 ratio. Blue dots are major cities.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/eurosnow.JPG

How is the algorithm you use different from that used by Weather Bell? What snow-to-liquid ratio does WxBell use? I thought they used 10:1 also. In addition, doesn't the anomalous strength and apparent depth of the forecasted cold make use of their algorithm appropriate in this particular case?

I'm afraid that we're using the same algorithm that appears built into the ECMWF. Our maps are similar to WeatherBell's, in that regard. I have no control over that. I did notice with the last predicted snow event that the EC was forecasting snow with temps well above freezing over the lower 5000 ft. In this case, I expect a deeper layer of cold, so cold air depth may not be a factor. Precip timing will be more significant.

[Ralph's Weather]

Any idea if we are talking about a deep layer or shallow layer of cold air with this front?

12Z GFS is very deep with the cold. According to it Tuesday evening will see surface temps in the 20s with 850mb temps in the teens for North Texas. It shows the air drying up in the cold air so not much QPF, but at those temps the snow would still pile up pretty good. If the Baja low slows up a bit temps may not be quite as cold as shown, but we will have much more moisture to work with. I like the progged set-up for a pretty decent I-20 snow storm next Tuesday and Tuesday night followed by a very cold Wed and Thur. That said this is still a good ways out and lots will change and flip flop.

[Texas Snowman]

Well much to his credit, wxman57 has been a real sport today and has provided us many nice maps of projected winter/wintry weather in Texas next week. I don't think any of us can honestly say that he was a no-show. As always, we are obliged for your presence on this forum and your expertise and dialogue.

Now, give us a few weeks of a brutal winter and we'll return the temperature controls back to you by mid March.

I agree wholeheartedly, Wxman 57 has been pretty awesome today!

But I wholeheartedly DISAGREE on giving him back the temperature controls in mid-March. April 1st, yes. March 15, no way!

You know the agreement, he gets the temperature controls from April 1 to Oct. 31 every year. Some years, he gets those controls all the way to Thanksgiving. I'd say that seven or eight months of good old fashioned Texas heat is plenty of time for bike riding weather!

[Tireman4]

Any idea if we are talking about a deep layer or shallow layer of cold air with this front?

12Z GFS is very deep with the cold. According to it Tuesday evening will see surface temps in the 20s with 850mb temps in the teens for North Texas. It shows the air drying up in the cold air so not much QPF, but at those temps the snow would still pile up pretty good. If the Baja low slows up a bit temps may not be quite as cold as shown, but we will have much more moisture to work with. I like the progged set-up for a pretty decent I-20 snow storm next Tuesday and Tuesday night followed by a very cold Wed and Thur. That said this is still a good ways out and lots will change and flip flop.

You said it young sir!!!

[Brent]

I like the setup too... I'll be interested to see what FWD and Steve McCauley say... They were never impressed with the January setups and well they nailed it so... That said i am encouraged by trends today and to even see the euro onboard is saying something... Cautious optimism...

Oh and kudos to wxman57 for posting data I'm sure he didn't like posting :p

[wxman57]

I've always said that if I see it, I'll shout it out.

Oh, you'll all PAY for next week's cold snap come this summer...

Speaking of cold air depth, take a look at an upper-air diagram (skew-T) for Dallas next Tuesday evening. Note that the temperature lines run diagonally from lower left to upper right of the graphic, and the entire air column is well below freezing during the predicted precip.

[Tireman4]

Oh, you'll all PAY for next week's cold snap come this summer...

And now, we have done it. We have poked the bear...sigh...my runs will be toast this summer.

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh, you'll all PAY for next week's cold snap come this summer...

Speaking of cold air depth, take a look at an upper-air diagram (skew-T) for Dallas next Tuesday evening. Note that the temperature lines run diagonally from lower left to upper right of the graphic, and the entire air column is well below freezing during the predicted precip.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

The skew-Ts for next week are beautiful and pretty dang rare in this part of the state.

[Tireman4]

I've always said that if I see it, I'll shout it out.

Oh, you'll all PAY for next week's cold snap come this summer...

Speaking of cold air depth, take a look at an upper-air diagram (skew-T) for Dallas next Tuesday evening. Note that the temperature lines run diagonally from lower left to upper right of the graphic, and the entire air column is well below freezing during the predicted precip.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

Do you expect the moisture to spread more southerly as the models trying to pin this down?