Texas Winter 2014-2015

[hriverajr]

Made some graphics off my workstation using the 12z EC.

First, 6am CST temps next Wed:


and next Thursday morning:


Projected snowfall Tuesday. The map is contoured for every 0.25" using a 10:1 ratio. Blue dots are major cities.

Oh I really like that last map

[wxman57]

Do you expect the moisture to spread more southerly as the models trying to pin this down?

To get snow here we typically need a low in the northwest Gulf, which I'm not seeing for next week.

[Ntxw]

Oh, you'll all PAY for next week's cold snap come this summer...

Speaking of cold air depth, take a look at an upper-air diagram (skew-T) for Dallas next Tuesday evening. Note that the temperature lines run diagonally from lower left to upper right of the graphic, and the entire air column is well below freezing during the predicted precip.

Superbowl 2011 skew T! I noticed both GFS and Euro has 850s in the -13c range, clear those skies, calm those winds and maybe interesting. The difference from the GFS runs at the surface seems to be the winds.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center has shifted the cold air further West and also has some interesting Analogs that many longtimers may remember for our Region. There is that 1976 showing up again wxman57...

[Texas Snowman]

Ooohhh, look at all of the pretty colors!

[Brent]

I've been waiting for these pretty maps all winter. About time...

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Ooohhh, look at all of the pretty colors!

Perhaps, then, you won't need this next week...
http://www.amazon.com/The-Original-Melted-Snowman-Snowglobe/dp/B00G5M5T8K

[Tireman4]

I've been waiting for these pretty maps all winter. About time...

Were gonna win. Were gonna win..

[Brent]

I've been waiting for these pretty maps all winter. About time...

Were gonna win. Were gonna win..

We have to win sometime. Mid-November was so long ago and not even winter

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: Ooohhh, look at all of the pretty colors!

Perhaps, then, you won't need this next week...
http://www.amazon.com/The-Original-Melted-Snowman-Snowglobe/dp/B00G5M5T8K

You're in rare form today sir, rare form.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Ooohhh, look at all of the pretty colors!

Perhaps, then, you won't need this next week...
http://www.amazon.com/The-Original-Melted-Snowman-Snowglobe/dp/B00G5M5T8K

You're in rare form today sir, rare form.

He is just holding on sirs. He will have Summer, even a cold summer has upper 90's. Ughh.

[Texas Snowman]

I didn't realize that the temperature hit 81 degrees in Houston yesterday. Now THAT'S winter weather! If it gets any warmer I might be able to take off my coat. Looks like a big snow storm for Pennsylvania next Monday (Groundhog Day). No shadow for him means winter is over! Maybe we should start a winter 2015-2016 thread talking about possible snow in Texas NEXT winter?

I must say, I find today's kinder, gentler version of Wxman 57 to be a bit more preferable to his alter ego that showed up back in late January!

[weatherdude1108]

EWX seems to be in agreement and on board with a pattern shift. Weather nice right now, but I am ready for it to act like it is still Winter -- dag gummit!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST WED FEB 11 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS FIRST COOLER...THEN WETTER...
THEN COLDER...CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE COMING SEVEN DAYS. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
04-09Z...WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH FIRST...THEN AN INCREASE IN
SPEED AND GUSTS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE A SOLID 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH TYPICAL PATTERNS FOR WINTER CYCLONES DEVELOPING ON
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
NEW MEXICO DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING
ALL THE WAY OFF BAJA TO OVER THE PACIFIC. IT STAYS THERE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AS A WAVE AND PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN
JET STREAM AS THE LATTER CARVES OUT A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

THE NET SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...THEN MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS COME INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE AND PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE STAYED IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT SOME OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE
RATES FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THAT WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST. QPF SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH...
USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NO
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE 20S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.

&&

[Ntxw]

You have to like the Ensembles. Keeps the arctic dam open.

[TheProfessor]

Now the only thing we are missing is DHWeather and his Lucy GIF Hopefully she can be tamed this time.

[TheProfessor]

I guess all are attention is on next week because know one has mentioned the ice storm that showed up at 300 hours on the GFS, yeah I know 300 hours is extremely far out, but maybe it will be next thing to look toward to after next weeks event.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I'm just happy to see an encouraging trend for snow fans... we can worry about specifics later.

Eh we've heard that all winter. "Cold Rain". Is what ensues. I've pretty much given up on seeing any wintery precip around these parts and was really enjoying the heat and hoping for 90's for March.

[Ralph's Weather]

Now the only thing we are missing is DHWeather and his Lucy GIF Hopefully she can be tamed this time.

Lucy is always a concern, but the consistency of the all the models and ensembles gives higher than average confidence. A deep Arctic air mass and a Southwest low are almost certain and there is very good agreement that they interact. That leads to a pretty high confidence forecast though the time frame still begs us to not jump all in yet.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm just happy to see an encouraging trend for snow fans... we can worry about specifics later.

Eh we've heard that all winter. "Cold Rain". Is what ensues. I've pretty much given up on seeing any wintery precip around these parts and was really enjoying the heat and hoping for 90's for March.

Don't let us reaching for slight hopes all winter be confused with a storm that is being consistently shown on all models and ensembles. If this storm verifies it will be unlike recent storms of the past few years as the upper levels look to be very cold.

[TheProfessor]

I don't mind the 70s in February every once and a while, or 80s in March, But No 90s till May. And even 1 day of 90+ in March sounds very Yucky. 85 degrees would be pushing, and there better be a Thunder storm to go with it.