Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is losing the cold air. Now forecasting only 32-33 for the low in the D-FW area (and Houston) on Wednesday with highs near 50 (vs. 31 for 6Z GFS). Now 42 for Thursday's low (40 in Houston).

Yes, but is that not typical of GFS. Losing the air (cold) 3-5 days out?

Actually, it's the 3-5 day period when the models catch on, typically. The 12Z GFS is driving the cold air southeastward rather than southward. No 1040mb high dropping into Texas. Doesn't give me confidence in next week's forecast...

Looking again at the 2m temperature map for Texas on WeatherBell's site, there is NO 32F temperature anywhere in Texas next Thursday morning! Now that's a change from earlier runs.

[Brent]

I dunno still looks pretty cold to me...

[Stormcenter]

Good old GFS playing games again. anyway I still think this could be our best and maybe last shot at seeing some the frozen stuff.

[Portastorm]

C'mon wxman57 ... I can't believe you're getting caught up in surface feature depictions. This progged 500mb flow from the 12z GFS says it all. If there is anomalously cold air in the source regions, this pattern will deliver it directly to Texas.

[wxman57]

GFS has 850mb temps below freezing south of Houston (out to the central Gulf) and surface temps in the low 40s across NE/SE TX. That does look odd. I would tend not to believe the 12z GFS 2m temps across Texas (though I'd like to).

[ronyan]

The 12z GFS does still show 2m temps below 32F in Eastern TX on Wed.

I don't buy the 12z solution as it doesn't appear to have good support from the projected 500mb pattern. It's one run that is showing this, we'll see if it's a fluke or the beginning of a trend.

[wxman57]

The 12z GFS does still show 2m temps below 32F in Eastern TX on Wed.

I don't buy the 12z solution as it doesn't appear to have good support from the projected 500mb pattern. It's one run that is showing this, we'll see if it's a fluke or the beginning of a trend.

Note the below-zero temps forecast for central Arkansas on Wednesday.

[ronyan]

Just noticed that, pretty intense cold for that area.

Also look how far south into MX the 40s go.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Starting to notice the HP's losing density before they cross the border though #WinterAlmostOver

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, one heckuva Nor'Easter after the storm passes us. Oooo weeee, they cant catch a break

[Tireman4]

GFS has 850mb temps below freezing south of Houston (out to the central Gulf) and surface temps in the low 40s across NE/SE TX. That does look odd. I would tend not to believe the 12z GFS 2m temps across Texas (though I'd like to).

So you are saying there is a chance...

[dhweather]

0Z Euro precip types. I hope the PWC gets this and has a grand time with the grey goose !!

[wxman57]

GFS has 850mb temps below freezing south of Houston (out to the central Gulf) and surface temps in the low 40s across NE/SE TX. That does look odd. I would tend not to believe the 12z GFS 2m temps across Texas (though I'd like to).

So you are saying there is a chance...

Sure, the 12Z GFS could turn out to be nuts. Let's see what the Euro says next hour. But it may take until Sunday/Monday before we are very confident in the temperature forecast for Wed/Thu.

[dhweather]

Snow doesn't just happen in most of Texas or the south. There are a lot of ingredients that come into play, and everything has to be just right.

1) Cold Air - odds are very good it is coming

2) No warm nose - Karl Malden has to stay away, otherwise it could be ice or rain - skew-T's show no sign of ol' Karl

3) Lift - some feature, a shortwave, something has to provide lift - there is a shortwave coming around the time of FROPA

4) Moisture availability - Gotta have it, no moisture = no snow. Some will be there, just how much? And will the CAA dry the column out too fast?

5) Timing - If the shortwave is earlier or later than forecast, this is all rain, a mix, snow, or just some flurries. - hard to forecast 5 days out.


While I am not sold on this happening yet, I do believe this will be one of the best chances we've had this winter. This chick drives me crazy, as she does most of you:

[wxman57]

Euro is in through Monday morning now. I can post some screenshots of my workstation shortly when it reaches Tue/Wed.

[Stormcenter]

Please do and thank you!

Euro is in through Monday morning now. I can post some screenshots of my workstation shortly when it reaches Tue/Wed.

[wxman57]

Here's a Euro snow forecast for 6pm Sunday to 6am Monday:



And for 9pm Monday to 9am Tuesday:

[Brent]

[wxman57]

Here's one showing 24hr snowfall across Texas in 0.2" increments from 9pm Monday to 9pm Tuesday. No snow for SE TX, maybe an inch up in Dallas-Ft. Worth (according to this run of the EC).

[wxman57]

And here are some 2m temperature forecasts from the 12Z ECMWF. Low around 25 in D-FW Wed (looks reasonable). Around 31 in Houston.


Then comes Thursday - it agrees with the GFS. Cold air moves out fast. I only contoured 32F or lower: