Florida Weather

[asd123]

Now, rememeber, we all know the GFS has had this real cold bias all winter. But, I will again say that next week's mid-week cold snap could be just as cold, if not colder as this weekend's cold snap. I just looked at the latest runs and EURO and GFS are in remarkable agreement with significant cyclogenesis developing early next week across the Lower MS Valley. This could also become a severe weather threat with the warm advection immediately ahead of this system along portions of the Gulf Coast and east into North Florida Monday into Tuesday. Also, it appears moisture will be sufficient on the backside of the Low as strong cold air advection rushes in that will provide a potential of snow across the Mid-South and TN Valley region the mid portion of next week. If a fresh snowpack can materialize in those regions, and with another deep upper trough moving down across the central and evential Eastern CONUS, the arctic airmass won't be able to moderate as quickly.

I am still inclined to think that we could see temps well down into the 20s by next Thursday across the northern Florida peninsula. Lots of variables still in play for the middle of next week, but don't dismiss the potential magnitude of next week's event for those of you down in the central peninsula i.e. NDG, asd123, psyclone and others.

Yeah just like with this current cold snap, in cfla the GFS and Euro were originally and persistently forecasting a couple of freezes, but then switched towards more warmth and stayed that way. With next week's freeze, it can still change, colder or warmer.

Why is the GFS ensemble now colder than the operational? What does this mean?

The GFS operational has trended slightly warmer for Thursday morning; significantly colder for wed morning.

Strangely enough, The GFS ensemble is way colder than the operational for Thursday morning. What does this mean?

All Images Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

GFS operational Thursday morning:


GFS Ensemble Thursday morning:

[northjaxpro]

The GFS just has that cold bias asd123. It has all winter long. I am not 100% sure if the recent upgrade to the GFS has made it any better at all. But, the key variable coming up will be if we can get snowfall across the TN Valley by middle of next week, which the GFS and EURO are in agreement with currently. The arctic airmass will not moderate as fast if a fresh snowpack can materialize just to our immediate north, and temps could be a bit colder than what the models are showing for Florida by the middle of next week.

[asd123]

:uarrow:
The GFS just has that cold bias asd123. It has all winter long. I am not 100% sure if the recent upgrade to the GFS has made it any better at all. But, the key variable coming up will be if we can get snowfall across the TN Valley by middle of next week, which the GFS and EURO are in agreement with currently. The arctic airmass will not moderate as fast if a fresh snowpack can materialize just to our immediate north, and temps could be a bit colder than what the models are showing for Florida by the middle of next week.

But the question is, why is the GFS ensemble colder than the operational? Almost always the ensemble is warmer than the operational. In addition to the snowpack, the atmospheric dynamics will also dictate the fate of the cold air. With this current cold snap for example, the frigid air will dive sse from central Canada, but before it gets here it will slide east instead of plunging down the peninsula.

[northjaxpro]

The GFS is having issues asd123. Some things about it has been perplexing this winter. I can't explain why the ensembles are trending colder at the moment, but I am one not to discount the GFS completely. The GFS , after all, was the only model to accurately forecast our light ocean-effect snow event here in Jax back on January 8 five days before the event. That gives it a few kudos from me for sure

My point is and I mentioned this earlier, the GFS has been all over the place this winter, but it may sneak up and get one of its cold bias trends right for a change.

[asd123]

The GFS is having issues asd123. Some things about it has been perplexing this winter. I can't explain why the ensembles are trending colder at the moment, but I am one not to discount the GFS completely. The GFS , after all, was the only model to accurately forecast our light ocean-effect snow event here in Jax back on January 8 five days before the event. That gives it a few kudos from me for sure

My point is and I mentioned this earlier, the GFS has been all over the place this winter, but it may sneak up and get one of its cold bias trends right for a change.

The GEM and its ensembles are even more coldly biased, right?

[northjaxpro]

GEM is about on par with the cold bias too for the most part.

[NDG]

Yeap, I wouldn't even mention the CMC/GEM model medium range forecast, the frigid air in Canada most have gotten into its hard drive core

It was just this past Monday when it was forecasting upper 20s all the way down to Naples for Monday morning.

[FireRat]

Wow indeed, talk about a chilly finale to Florida Winter 2015.

For us here in South Florida, I think we'll need to keep an eye on those dew points, seeing what dew points are forecast for those nights ahead. It dropped to 53 degrees here at 11 PM and has stayed steady due to a 53 degree dew point. I would say, if we got dew points in the 20s and low 30s down here for the cold times ahead, then we'd be talking about near freezing temps, especially well inland. For now, best thing to go with IMO is 40s for lows, maybe low 40s inland.

[northjaxpro]

Registered 31.7 degrees for the low this morning. Sunny, cool, crisp day today here with the high reaching the low 50s. Tonight, the modified Arctic High will drop allthe way to the Gulf Coast and get very close to the peninsula. This should allow pretty good radisational cooling conditions across the region and another freeze will opccur here tomorrow morning with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, but some mid 20s are possible over in the Suwanee River Valley region.

We will see a very brief warm-up on Saturday as the flow becomes westerly and max temps will get to the low 60s ahead of the next Arctic front which will move through late tomorrow night. Sunday morning will see lows in the upper20s again. Cold, windy day on Sunday as the Arctic air mass builds in and max temps in Jax only in the upper 40s.
I will check in later regarding the next cold spell coming in for ther Wednesday-Thursday perioid of this upcoming week.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hopefully we get some rain middle of next week. My car needs washed.

A cold front will then move through the region on Wednesday. The
European model (ecmwf) has much more rainfall across the region with this
front...whereas the GFS is mostly dry due to it bringing the
front through overnight Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are then
forecast once again for the region through the end of the period
behind the front

[Sanibel]

Chilly spell but no serious cold front down here. We should drop to about 44* or 45* tonight after a high of 64*.


TWC saying another cold snap next week.

[NDG]

So where's the freeze for the I-4 corridor the COLD biased GFS & CMC have been forecasting? I guess you have to wait until next winter

[psyclone]

Even on a cool day like today you can feel the increasing intensity of the sun.

[FireRat]

Working outdoors tonight gave me the chance to feel the chill first hand, it was an awesome experience witnessing the cold front's march through my locale around 9:30 PM, after hours of light winds, the winds suddenly picked up from the NW and my car's thermometer plunged 5 degrees in 4 minutes at the same area, then fell about 3 degrees per hour since. It's now 43 outside as of 2:00 AM with wind chill of 38...so sayeth my local weatherbug (extreme western Plantation/ North Weston area), officially the coldest night of this winter for my area. We might see upper 30s in the next several hours at this rate!

Interesting to note that even though places immediately along the coast are still in the low 50s, some deep interior areas of South FL (everglades mostly) are already 38-42 degrees, with mid to upper 40s prevalent across most suburbs west of I-95. Definitely an over-achiever of a front for some of us down here!

[NDG]

Just as forecasted by the Euro from days ago upper 30s to low 40s in my area with patchy rooftop frost, uppers 30s all the way down into Alligator Alley.

[HURRICANELONNY]

There really is no signals to bring cold air this far south but the Nor'easters are stronger then usual. Hence bringing down artic air. All I can think is the SST off New England. About 3-5 degrees above normal. Could it be part of climate change. I sure don't know. Just a thought.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png

[Sanibel]

Coldest night of the winter last night. Also felt that quick change last night with passing of front.


Sun angle just enough to hit back. 56* right now expected to top out at 63*.

[TheStormExpert]

South Florida Current Observations @ 12pm EST on 2/14/15. Very low Dewpoints along with low Humidity, and no cloud cover whatsoever ATM.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like a forecast bust for this morning as the arctic boundary is just now approaching the Northeast Florida area. Temperature is only in the low-mid 40s, way off the low-mid 30s that were forecast yesterday. The delayed arrival of the arctic boundary is the culprit.

Well, the front will pass through early this morning and bring north to northeast winds, and despite full sun, modest cold air advection will cause a very slow rise in temps today. Temps will generally stay in the 40s for most of the day and may barely get to or just past the 50 degree mark late this afternoon.

The Arctic High this time will stay north of the peninsula, and that means onshore flow for the peninsula. This also will keep the Jax area from getting a freeze tomorrow morning. Lows should only get to the upper30s here in Jax, with possible low- mid 30s colder spots inland.

Storm system will rapidly develop Monday along the Northern Gulf Coast region and a baroclinic zone will set up across the Deep South, mainly across Central MS and Central AL east across North GA into the Piedmont of the Carolina. Looks like this Low Pressure system will be quite dynamical with snow and sleet along and to the north of the baroclinic zone across the aforementioned areas. The cold dome of Arctic High will wedge down the Lee of the Appalachians beginning late tonight and into Monday and bring wintry weather to those areas, the first real good Deep South winter storm system this winter.

South of the baroclinic zone, a risk of potential strong thunderstorms could flare up across the immediate Gulf Coast and east across North Florida later Monday into Tuesday. I will keep an eye on this to see if severe weather enters this region with the dynamics in place with this storm system.

The Low Pressure system will track right along the baroclinic zone and will move off the coast of the Carolinas by early Tuesday. A cold front trailing from that strom system will move through all of North Florida by Tuesday evening and move through the rest of the Florida peninsula by early Wednesday.

Colder air will return, at least here across North Florida on Wednesday. Models showing a return to upper 20s here in Jacksonville by Thursday morning.

The consecutive freezes here on this past Friday and yesterday put the total number of freezes measured at my locale this 2014-2015 Fall/Winter season currently at 10. Still a bit warmer than normal, but the cold spell later this week may give us a couple of more freezes to add to that. Depending on the end of February through the first half of March, there is a chance that the Jax area can squeeze out an average season total of freezes, which is 15 in a typical Fall/Winter season here in Northeast Florida.

Have a great day everyone and I will check back in later.

[NDG]

And big time GFS bust from 5-6 days ago when the GFS was calling for lows in the 20s this morning and highs only in the 40s for central FL, instead I am sitting almost in the mid 70s today with that higher sun angle, same as late October, it even feels warmer under it.

One more week with mostly below average temps especially for the end of the week before a possibly change to persistent warmer wx because of the forecasted NAO to stay persistently positive and now the ensembles showing the PNA to go negative, which should also means good news for the NE US, much need to start a somewhat thawing process.
I can't imagine if I would had been in Buffalo today with their highs staying below Zero, wow!