Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[timmeister]

GFS 18Z Loop

[SeGaBob]

Is it possible the track might shift just enough south to bring the low off of the NE Florida coast? Also IF this were to happen would snow be likely further south?

The 18Z GFS appears to be showing a brief period of snow here as the track is now... but i'm just wondering what would happen the further south the low goes. (assuming the trend continues)

[timmeister]

GFS 00Z has the Low tracking a bit more south but moving at a fast clip. Will be interesting to see the 06Z in the morning to see if the trend continues to keep the Low on a more southerly track.



Total Snowfall, 6AM CST Wednesday Morning.

[Hammy]

GEM has brought the snow line further south with each run on the 240-hour accumulated total for the last several runs, and has been consistent showing snow in northern Georgia as well

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The GFS showed 10+ inches of snow and 11 degrees here just 5 days out about a week ago and dropped it... It turned out that it was sunny and 70 degrees that day. So don't trust it within 5 days is my advice.

It did get the flurries in Florida right 5 days out so I can give it that.

I was wondering if anybody was going to bring that up. Models have been doing this all winter and like I mentioned earlier nws and models were talking record low temps for us this weekend and now for this week we have one light freeze forecast then back in the 60's. Don't know why so many are so quick to jump on the winter is back bandwagon a week out when models can't get weather right 5 days on in. Think people are setting themselves up for a huge disappointment next week.

We tried to warn people SeGaBob. Now models are doing the exact same thing, especially for us along the gulf coast, as they did with the current record breaking artic blast we are experiencing right now 34* as I type. So much for the teens Every run has been getting warmer and warmer and now for we may not even get a freeze in all this and its not going to stick around but for two days. What a joke the models have been this winter.

[SeGaBob]

It got down to 24 here...i'm still hopeful for some snow Tuesday Night/early Wednesday, but like you said and I agree the models have been horrible.

[LaBreeze]

I'm driving from Shreveport to Jackson, MS to Biloxi on Monday - what should I expect? Should I leave early in the day or later in the morning to avoid any travel problems with the weather? Thanks in advance to all who may respond!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nothing but the rain and warm temps. Not even a freeze forecast now and will be back in the 50's by Wednesday

Will give it to the gfs this winter it has been persistent. Shows cold and winter precip anywhere from 7-14 days out and gets everyone worked up, then gradually moderates the cold day by day. Good thing this hurricane season is going to be a dud because if it were busy the gfs would make people go insane.

[SeGaBob]

This might be a good time to dig up that spring thread I made.
I feel like we'll just get a cold rain here next week.

[rsvh2000]

Here in Columbia, SC looks like the set up for a potential major ice storm. A lot can change, but models seem to be trending towards that.

[Hammy]

Snow and ice here in Winder, GA from Monday to Wednesday by the looks of things, I'll upload pictures throughout the day if there's no reserved thread to report

[hurricanehunter69]

Damn....Is this actually possible? SNOW...on mardi Gras day? This model run is only three dayz out! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[BigB0882]

Damn....Is this actually possible? SNOW...on mardi Gras day? This model run is only three dayz out! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

What are we looking at on that map, I don't see anything. I assume it has already been updated with the next model run and is gone. lol Also, you can't assume that any precip behind the 0c line is snow or ice. That precip could fall before temps go below freezing which is what I suspect was happening.

[Hammy]

freezing rain occurring at my house in Winder at the moment with light snow being reported two miles away at the airport

[northjaxpro]

This is a look at the GFS projected temps for Thursday morning across the Deep South. It looks down right frigid! Now, we all are aware of the issues the GFS has had this winter, but with the fresh snow and ice pack now occuring across the Tennessee Valley and the Mid-Atlantic regions, that arctic airmass may not modify very quickly and temps may end up verifying close to what is being depicted here. Thursday morning showing below zero readings across the Tennesee Valley being shown and single digits across North Alabama and North Georgia across the piedmont of the Carolinas. Teens are depicted all the way down into Southern AL and GA, and possibly portions of the Florida panhandle and 20s widespread all across the rest of North Florida, with the freeze line shown approaching the I-4 corridor in Central Florida. Tropicana, get ready. A real good possibility we will see new record lows set with this kind of arctic spell in the Deep South should all of this come close to fruition.

[Hammy]

We got about a quarter inch of ice glazing the trees and everything in Winder, and I've been hearing branches fall for the last six hours

[BigB0882]

It is about 33-34 in Baton Rouge and still with light rain. A friend of mine posted on Facebook that there was small hail. I can only assume he saw some sleet mixed in the rain. Anyone else see anything?

[Stormnut]

33 at my place and a steady rain. Always seem to miss a couple degrees!!

According to radar we still have a couple more hours with precip though

[BigB0882]

Weather.com app now lists rain and freezing rain into the morning hours. Only about 50% chance once we hit freezing. I would get excited but I am not getting up at 5 am to see if there is a thin layer of ice on the fence. lol

[Stormcenter]

Moisture seems to be increasing from the southwest......interesting IMO.