Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z GFS continues the trend of shoving everything for south and only flurries here. It does show a close call for ice Sunday night. I am not sure the GFS has a good handle on what is going to happen though so I will discount it unless the other models start moving in its direction.

[Brent]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW

Coldest air is now Monday and still no freeze, gets down to 33 as the first batch of precip ends Monday Morning. 50s on Tuesday, 60s on Wednesday...

Overall trend has been drier/weaker/warmer...

[Texas Snowman]

From KXII TV (Denison/Sherman) met Steve LaNore's weather blog:

"Some of the model runs today (Thursday) want to divide the cold air into two pieces; one for Monday and the other for Wednesday with Tuesday warmer in the middle.

Since this is a radical change from the recent pattern prediction and because there is not agreement in this new direction, I'm sticking with the idea that Monday night-Tuesday will be the primary threat window for ice or snow, and I'm still in the 40% range with its potential. Check back Friday night for a new update."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Totally went away so far. Im gonna look like such an idiot, i told EVERYBODY about this front!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Its to the point where its actually comical. We are In the same timeframe when the models started getting warmer and warmer with each subsequent run for our supposed record breaking cold for today and this weekend that were shown this past sunday and monday. Sitting at 34* as I type, far cry from upper teens And now its the same thing all over again, warmer and warmer with each set of runs.

[Tireman4]

Just lost all of it....ughhh

[Yukon Cornelius]

Talk about a complete 180...

[Ralph's Weather]

Yes the GFS looks bad, but the Euro looks very good from the free version I can see. Other models see in between. I am siding with the Euro right now because it looks more typical of what we see with a ridge into Alaska and a Baja low with the trough digging toward the Baja low.

[Portastorm]

Yes the GFS looks bad, but the Euro looks very good from the free version I can see. Other models see in between. I am siding with the Euro right now because it looks more typical of what we see with a ridge into Alaska and a Baja low with the trough digging toward the Baja low.

No doubt the Euro is colder for next Tuesday. Plus the GFS' progged 500mb flow for next Tuesday remains favorable for delivering air into Texas from Alaska and the NW Territories. Sheesh, a few crappy GFS surface depictions and everyone wants to jump off the ledge. Relax! It's going to get much colder next week.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately for snow-lovers, it's more than a few GFS runs. Both the European and Canadian backed away from the colder air and winter precip. Overnight runs indicate no more than a light freeze in Dallas & Houston on Wednesday with snow from the Red River northward. I think there's still a fair chance some colder air will come down and the D-FW area will see lows of 23-25 Wednesday, but I don't think that the chances for any significant snow were ever that high. Maybe a few flurries and some light accumulations is all I'd expect at best.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Wxman57, what is it showing for Northern Wichita county, Burkburnett area, snow or winter precipitation wise? I have family coming in this weekend and was wondering if I need to give them a heads up. Thanks!

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately for snow-lovers, it's more than a few GFS runs. Both the European and Canadian backed away from the colder air and winter precip. Overnight runs indicate no more than a light freeze in Dallas & Houston on Wednesday with snow from the Red River northward. I think there's still a fair chance some colder air will come down and the D-FW area will see lows of 23-25 Wednesday, but I don't think that the chances for any significant snow were ever that high. Maybe a few flurries and some light accumulations is all I'd expect at best.

I was never bullish on wintry precip chances to begin with. My take was, and continues to be, a much colder airmass for Monday evening into Wednesday, dropping highs some 20-25 degrees from what we're seeing now. I see absolutely no reason to think otherwise at this point.

[wxman57]

I made a couple of meteograms off the 6Z GFS raw data. As I said, I think that the GFS may have gone a little too warm with the airmass. We've seen with recent fronts that the models have been a bit off in forecasting low temps behind fronts (maybe by 5 degrees or so). I wouldn't be surprised if the actual temps are 5-7 degrees colder than the 2 curves below.

[wxman57]

Quite a different snow picture overnight. Less cold air means the snow shifts northward. Of course, if the models are wrong by 5 deg or so with the cold air, then the snow line could still reach the D-FW area with light accumulations.

First, the Euro:


Here's the GFS:

[stormlover2013]

I said yesterday don't be surprised if the models warmed up, the models have done a descent job this year about 3-4 days out so lets see what the models show on sunday!!!! its just one of these years this year in winter when we think we could get some winter weather 3-4 days before models show it warming up lol

[Ralph's Weather]

With all the model chaos we have to remember that they are just a tool. So saying that I see a Baja low and a ridge into Alaska with a trough diving down the lee of the Rockies while the Baja low moves NE meeting up with the base of the trough over Texas early next week and the trough will continue to spread east while NW flow takes over for a short while for the middle of next week before more troughing builds late next week.
Predicting the surface is more tricky, but here are my thoughts for northern Texas. The 60s of this weekend will be replaced by Arctic air starting late Sunday with temps falling 20-30 degrees between Sunday afternoon and midnight. Some precip should occur behind the front which could transition from rain to freezing rain or sleet Sunday night especially in western North Texas. Tuesday will likely struggle to get above freezing and very likely not out of the 30s with ongoing chances for light snow though a small chance exists for something more substantial if we can get some kind of surface low to form which would concentrate the precip and allow for heavier amounts locally. Wednesday will likely start out in the low 20s and warm into the 40s and the same for Thursday. After that we could see more Arctic air and precip next weekend and that up and down trend should continue into early March.

[Ralph's Weather]

Sheltered areas including at my house made it down into the upper 20s this morning along I-20 in E TX so some teens are very possible with next week's Arctic front. The coldest so far this winter at my house was 15 back in January so it will be interesting if we can touch that again.

[funster]

What I wish wxman57 said: "Quite a different snow picture overnight. Much more cold air means the snow shifts southward. Of course, the models are completely wrong by 25 deg or so with the cold air, so the snow line will now reach the D-FW area with massive accumulations."

[wxman57]

What I wish wxman57 said: "Quite a different snow picture overnight. Much more cold air means the snow shifts southward. Of course, the models are completely wrong by 25 deg or so with the cold air, so the snow line will now reach the D-FW area with massive accumulations."

Part of me is disappointed that you may not get the snow that the models were promising a few days ago. And as my boss and I were discussing at lunch yesterday - a good hard freeze down to the Gulf Coast would make our clients believe that at least some type of weather threat exists (as we don't get hurricanes anymore).

Another part of me is saying "whew! - that front would have knocked me out of our office forecast contest for February, which I'm presently leading". I'll still hope that you get your snow up in NE TX with this event, just keep Galveston's low 39 or higher (our Feb forecast contest station) and their high 50F or higher.

[aggiecutter]

Latest forecast for Texarkana from the NWS in Shreveport:

Sunday Night: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then periods of sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Periods of sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%