Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

High on Wednesday went from about 34 to 50 for me.

[wxman57]

I don't think anyone here is going to like the 12Z GFS. Was going to post a temperature map for Texas valid Wednesday morning but for some reason we missed the 12Z Wed data. However, the 9Z temps had no freezing temps anywhere but the NW Panhandle and a small spot east of Longview.

[wxman57]

High on Wednesday went from about 34 to 50 for me.

I'm seeing a SSW wind and 58-59F by 3pm on Wednesday in the 12z GFS. Here's a plot of 60F or cooler temps for next Wednesday afternoon. GFS says the low Wednesday morning may be in the 38-39F range in D-FW. GFS is still indicating sub-freezing air near the AR/LA border Sunday/Monday which could lead to some freezing/frozen precip across extreme NE TX and northern LA/southern AR.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of panels from Levi's Tropical Tidbits site. Lucy just pulled the football away as everyone was rushing to kick it...

12Z GFS forecast for Wednesday morning temps:


Thursday morning temps:


It's sure getting quiet in here... Frankly, I'm amazed at just how warm the models have gone with this event (20-30 degrees warmer than 2 days ago). And it's not just the GFS. I thought surely we'd at least get a freeze out of it in Houston. It's still possible, but chances appear to be diminishing fast.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Talk about a slap in the face from the GFS.

[ronyan]

12z GFS is colder than the 0z and 6z runs for Wednesday morning, 7F colder at my location (from 41 6z to 34 12z). I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend down further with temps Wed morning, however it looks like the moderation will be rapid thereafter.

[Stormcenter]

GFS....need I say more? Seriously though it aint over til it's over. Let's just see how this plays out.

[dhweather]

NO WAY I WOULD DO THIS TO YOU 362 CONSECUTIVE TIMES!!!

[dhweather]

I'm wondering if we are in the window where models lose the cold? It seems sometimes that GFS/Euro get a clue about cold 5-8 days out, then lose it 3-5 days out.

If this doesn't happen next week, you can stick a fork in winter for Texas, it's over.

[dhweather]

Looking at the 12Z GFS thus far (192h) , it looks like the broken record of Winter 2014-15. Cold goes southeast out of Canada into midwest, then south into the southeast US. Then some of the cold air backdoors into Texas.

Hey, maybe something happens in two more weeks.

[Brent]

This so-called winter is cursed.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This winter actually i think is fitting the analogs quite well, we just arent getting any luck

[dhweather]

[wxman57]

I'm wondering if we are in the window where models lose the cold? It seems sometimes that GFS/Euro get a clue about cold 5-8 days out, then lose it 3-5 days out.

If this doesn't happen next week, you can stick a fork in winter for Texas, it's over.

Often, the models pick up correctly on an event in the 8-10 day time frame (10-15 on the GFS) then lose it in the mid range (5-8 days out) and get back on track in the 3-4 day time frame. And usually it's the surface where they have the problem, not the upper levels. That doesn't appear to be the case this time. It's still possible temps could be a little colder than the models are forecasting for next week. I wouldn't look for a swing back to widespread snow across Texas, though.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't think anyone here is going to like the 12Z GFS. Was going to post a temperature map for Texas valid Wednesday morning but for some reason we missed the 12Z Wed data. However, the 9Z temps had no freezing temps anywhere but the NW Panhandle and a small spot east of Longview.

Here is this morning at 500mb according to the 12Z GFS, remember that 20s were seen in E TX.



Here is Tuesday morning when the GFS is showing 34 and a light R/S mix. That is not too far off though I think the lower levels will be cold enough for that to be all snow.



Here is the skew-T at that time for Lindale. Not sure I have ever seen anything like that around here. It is below freezing except right at the surface and though the air is not super cold up to around 700mb it looks cold enough. What is amazing to me is the saturation continues up to 250mb where the temp is -52C. Can anyone tell me how that shows anything but snow?



Wednesday morning has a better flow for cold than this morning did so if skies are clear which they should be the 33 the GFS is showing is insane. I would say upper teens with lower still if we get a snow cover.

[dhweather]

I'm wondering if we are in the window where models lose the cold? It seems sometimes that GFS/Euro get a clue about cold 5-8 days out, then lose it 3-5 days out.

If this doesn't happen next week, you can stick a fork in winter for Texas, it's over.

Often, the models pick up correctly on an event in the 8-10 day time frame (10-15 on the GFS) then lose it in the mid range (5-8 days out) and get back on track in the 3-4 day time frame. And usually it's the surface where they have the problem, not the upper levels. That doesn't appear to be the case this time. It's still possible temps could be a little colder than the models are forecasting for next week. I wouldn't look for a swing back to widespread snow across Texas, though.

Thanks wxman57 - I was having a moment of confusion on when the models lose the cold.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS is complete.

DOOD - IT'S 0NLY TWO WEEKS AWAY !!!!!!!

[img]
image upload no size limit[/img]

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS is complete.

DOOD - IT'S 0NLY TWO WEEKS AWAY !!!!!!!

Who knows if this particular storm is correct, but the next few weeks look below average so it is possible.

[dhweather]

Its to the point where its actually comical. We are In the same timeframe when the models started getting warmer and warmer with each subsequent run for our supposed record breaking cold for today and this weekend that were shown this past sunday and monday. Sitting at 34* as I type, far cry from upper teens And now its the same thing all over again, warmer and warmer with each set of runs.

Just wait two more weeks, the models will teach you a lesson!

[dhweather]

Here is the skew-T at that time for Lindale. Not sure I have ever seen anything like that around here. It is below freezing except right at the surface and though the air is not super cold up to around 700mb it looks cold enough. What is amazing to me is the saturation continues up to 250mb where the temp is -52C. Can anyone tell me how that shows anything but snow?

My .02 - it appears to be right at or just above freezing at the surface, but that looks like a warm nose from 500 down to 850, so anything falling through that likely melts into a cold rain, which may freeze at the surface if temperatures act accordingly. This is the horrible part about trying to forecast winter weather - timing is everything and 2-3 degrees can make a HUGE difference.


Maybe Sunday we will get a better idea of what will really happen.