Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A POLAR TROUGH...NOW OFF THE
COAST OF EASTERN US...MOVES TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE TODAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO BUT AT THIS MOMENT NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...FEW BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

ON SATURDAY...A SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH AND CREATING A MORE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH
THE LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP MOISTURE AND UNUSUALLY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS WITH ORGANIZED DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ/JBQ TIL 06/22Z.
BRIEF SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT AT JSJ/IST/ISX
AND NCM/KPK OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ESE 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AFT 06/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY...
SPREADING ACROSS THEN LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE
MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 76 85 / 20 20 30 20
STT 74 83 77 84 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUED TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS INDUCING
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN/FLATTEN AS
ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND SPREADS EASTWARD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
OVERALL PATTERN WILL INDUCE A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LOW
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST THTOUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY BUT LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST EROSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CAP INVERSION. THEREFORE EXPECTED SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO COMBINE WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTION AND SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COLLAPSES ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER STILL NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTON ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

HOWEVER...BY THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...THINGS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST FAIR
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR MORE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH BETTER PROBABILITY OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THRU 07/16Z WITH ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVER OR NR
TKPK AND TNCM. SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AFTER 07/16Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SCT MVFR...BUT
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP THROUGH
FL120 BCMG ELY BLO FL050 AFT 07/12Z...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL
AT SURFACE GENERALLY AFTER 07/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY... THEN
SPREAD ACROSS LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. AT THIS TIME PRESENT CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOES SUGGEST SEAS REACHING
7 FEET OR GREATER. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO HOWEVER
EXERCISE CAUTION ON SUNDAY AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 30 30 20 20
STT 83 77 84 77 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good articule about the predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season that I wanted to share with the Caribbean and Central American friends.

http://www.caribbean360.com/news/mixed- ... ane-season

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS AT 700 MB OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY...EXTENDING EAST-WEST AND IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHEARING
MODERATELY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE LEEWARDS AWAY FROM US. MUCH OF
IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE SOME IS
ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DECAYING COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF 20N. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED HERE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS LIKE OCCURRED ON FRI BUT ENOUGH WILL ARRIVE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO MOST GRIDS
OTHERWISE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ/JPS IN
SHRA/TSRA THRU 07/22Z. SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MAY REACH
JSJ/IST/ISX AND NCM/KPK OVERNIGHT. ENE WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOYS 41046 AND 41047 HAVE BEEN UNDERFORECAST
TODAY BY THE MODELS BY 4-5 FT WHICH WAS A CONCERN EARLY. BUT MUCH
OF THE ENERGY IS DIRECTED INTO HISPANIOLA AND WHILE 12Z MODELS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS ISSUE THEY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHAT IS LEFT
HEADING TOWARDS PR/USVI. THEY DO BRIEFLY PUSH SEAS TO 7 FEET IN
ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS AND USED THE WNAWAVE4 WITHOUT MODIFICATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 82 76 84 / 30 20 20 30
STT 77 84 77 83 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS NOW COMPLETELY
ERODED ACROSS THE REGION AS BROAD POLAR TROUGH CONTINUED TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT
NOW MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WAS NOW JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA AND CREATING A HIGH ZONAL FLOW. 700-500 MILLIBAR
RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
WHILE WEAKENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LOOSEN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AS A FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE WILL SET UP AND LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE FAIRLY
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR BOTH SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
SHEAR LINE WAS NOW DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED SLOWLY MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TRANSPORTED FRAGMENTS
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALL IN ALL...THIS
SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH WAS ALSO INDICATED BY
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHERE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WERE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES OR SO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT THE MAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

STILL LOOKING FOR EVEN WETTER WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THEN STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. IF
IN FACT THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT...THEN EXPECT CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES WHICH SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR MORE ON THIS AS THE TIMING AND MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY CHANGE AND ADJUST AS WE ENTER THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH BRIEF -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...BECOMING EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER
08/15Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
ACTIVITY OVER PR AND THE USVI. VCSH LIKELY FOR THE TERMINALS IN PR
AND THE USVI AFTER 08/17Z WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA NEAR TJPS/TJMZ
AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND
THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 41043 STATION BUOY
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH WESTERN ATLANTIC... NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...
CONTINUED TO REPORT A STEADY INCREASE OF WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS AVERAGING BETWEEN
TEN AND FOURTEEN SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...MAKING HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. FOR THIS REASON A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM AST TODAY UNTIL AT LEAST 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES TODAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 75 84 75 / 30 20 30 20
STT 83 74 83 75 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND SHALLOW EVEN THOUGH HIGH
PRESSURE IS NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FARTHER EAST...TO BE
REPLACED BY A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF U.S. ATLANTIC
COAST ON MON. ABOVE 700 MB THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND THEN WEST
BY 600 MB WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE AREA
IN SHORT TERM. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
RAISE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT ON MON AND TO INCLUDE
THUNDER. HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE OVER AND JUST NORTH OF
CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WAS RETAINED ON ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ/JPS IN SHRA/TSRA THRU
08/22Z. SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MAY REACH JSJ/IST/ISX AND
NCM/KPK OVERNIGHT. ENE WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH THE SWELL
COMING FROM NORTH...UNDERPLAYING IT BY A COUPLE OF FEET OR SO.
BUOY 41053 IS ALMOST 7 FT AND 41043 STILL AT 9 FT...WHILE 41046
FALLING SLOWLY AT 8 FT. HARD TO ASSESS WHERE THE MODELS ARE DOING
A GOOD JOB AS THEY APPEAR TO BE IGNORING ALL OF THIS. WAVE DECAY
AND TRAVEL TIME INDICATE THAT 7-8 FT WILL CONTINUE ON ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH ALSO IMPLIES THAT 10-12 FT BREAKERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SO KEPT THE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO MON. ANY FURTHER EXTENSION
WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IF THE BUOYS DO NOT SHOW IMPROVEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 20 30 20 50
STT 74 84 75 82 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON FEB 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LOOSEN ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAHAMAS...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BY
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. WEAK REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID TO
INCREASE THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD OVER BAHAMAS...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA LATE TUESDAY
AND BY MID WEEK THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TIL 09/14Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG PRD. HOWEVER DURG THE AFTN BTW 09/17-09/22Z EXPCT SHRA...
ISOLD TSRA DVLPG OVR CTRL MTN RANGE AND W SECTIONS OF PR. THIS MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...
TJBQ...TJMZ. FEW-SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080...W/ISOLD SHRA...FEW
TCU OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS TOP NR 160.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST
HOURS AND AT 5 AM AST THEY WERE AROUND 6.5 FEET. SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 89 77 / 40 40 50 0
STT 84 74 83 78 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST MON FEB 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH EXITS THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
MIRING HOURS. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES INDICATED THAT
CLOUDINESS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND WERE REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO BY MID
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PR.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BUT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PR AS WIND
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST CAN PUSH SHOWERS ON SHORE.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES BY LATE THURSDAY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ..TJPS AND TJBQ THRU 21Z. ALSO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED ON TUE WILL LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA. LLVL WINDS FM SE AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3
TO 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. BEACH GOERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTLINES OF ALL LOCAL ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 77 87 / 40 50 0 40
STT 74 83 78 82 / 40 40 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST TUE FEB 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...AS A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE U.S. ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
BAHAMAS...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD OVER BAHAMAS...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BY WEDNESDAY THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER THE
REGION BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THIS SITUATION WILL CREATE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CL LYRS NORTH OF PR OVR
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATER...BTW FL025-FL080...W/EMBEDDED PASSING
-SHRA/SHRA. SHRA REACHING SRN COAST OF PR AND VCTY TJPS TIL AT LEAST
0912Z. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED DURG THE DAY AS DRIER
SOUTHERLY AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION. L/LVL WNDS FM S AT 5-15 BLO FL
150...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM W AND INCR TO MAX NR 65 KTS FL400.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME CROSSWINDS IN SOME OF THE
RUNWAYS...IN PARTICULAR THE RUNWAYS AT TISX/TIST AND ONE OR BOTH
RUNWAYS AT TJSJ

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SURROUNDING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF
3 TO 5 FEET AND SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. BEACH GOERS
ACROSS PINONES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS A MODERATE RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE TROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 88 76 / 20 20 40 40
STT 83 78 83 77 / 20 20 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THEN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH AND IT ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WEATHER. A FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPED TO MAINTAIN THE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN PR. THE THERMOMETER REACHED 89 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMAL FOR TODAY. AFTER SUNRISE...LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS SO FAR TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PR AND USVI.

AN AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. AS THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH/LOW MOVE EASTWARD...
IT WILL PUSH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOCAL REGION.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL CROSS PR/USVI
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED OVER PR ON THURSDAY. BOTH
FEATURES WILL INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. THE FORCING ALOFT IS NOT AS GOOD...SO WITH WEAK FORCING...
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF 20 NORTH. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THESE DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...WE KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
EVERYDAY UNTIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE WEAK FORCING ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. L/LVL WNDS FM S AT 10-15 WITH ISOLD GUSTS NR 20
KTS...BLO FL 150...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM W AND INCR TO MAX NR 65
KTS FL400. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME CROSSWINDS IN SOME
OF THE RUNWAYS...IN PARTICULAR THE RUNWAYS AT TISX/TIST AND ONE OR
BOTH RUNWAYS AT TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGE AS LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL INVADE THE
REGIONAL WATERS. MIGRATORY LOWS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
BRING A SERIES OF NNW SWELLS INTO OUR WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE MAIN SWELL GROUPS WILL IMPACT OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE BOTH EVENT WILL TRIGGER
HIGH SURF ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH COASTLINES OF PR AND
NORTHERN USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 82 / 20 40 40 40
STT 78 83 77 84 / 20 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST WED FEB 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT...BUT FLOW WILL NOT BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL MONDAY AFTER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SECOND LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
LATE SUNDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AFTER THIS SATURDAY. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ABOVE 500 MB.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND IS GENERATING FAIRLY WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS JUST NORTHWEST OF AGUADA AND BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
VIEQUES. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE. TRADE WINDS WILL RESUME SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN FORMING IN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL AND THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA BUT SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NORTH OF THE AREA. A
WEAK STREAM OF SHOWERS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF VIEQUES AND MOVED
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO. BETTER SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO
RICO WITH THE FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER APPEARS TODAY WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MID-
ATMOSPHERE VERTICAL MOTION. IN FACT THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW BETTER
SUPPORT ANYTIME AFTERWARD IN THIS RUN. MOISTURE HOWEVER FALLS
AFTER TODAY`S MIDDAY HIGH OF ABOUT 1.8 INCHES TO 1.3 INCHES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN RISES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MORE THAN 1.8
INCHES ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE THEN DIMINISHES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

THURSDAY WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DESPITE THE WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IF DUE TO NOTHING MORE THAN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND SOME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE INTERIOR. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY. AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT DUE TO THE WEAKER SUPPORT AND 20 TO 30
KNOT WINDS FROM 8 TO 30 KFT...AMOUNTS IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD
NOT BE EXCESSIVE. THIS MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT HOW MUCH SO IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS
FAR OUT. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEGINNING MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA...GRADUALLY INCREASING SCT/BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED. VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AFT 11/12Z AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS PR ALONG WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS...SPREADING TO THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
11/18Z. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 15 KTS IS
EXPECTED...INCREASING AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS
AFT 11/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NORTH OF 20 NORTH ONE SHIP
REPORTED 50 KNOTS OF WIND...BUT CLOSER TO THE AREA WINDS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN AT AND BELOW 20 KNOTS. STILL THIS HAS GENERATED
SEAS OVER 7 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY...41043. WITH MODELS GENERALLY
UNDERESTIMATING SEAS...HAVE ADDED 1 FOOT TO MODEL FORECASTS AND THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF 7 FOOT SEAS INTO THE OUTER ATLANTIC LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EXPOSED ATLANTIC
WATERS. SWELL FROM THE LOW FROM WHICH THE NEARBY COLD FRONT
EXTENDS WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK ON
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY CONSIDER 10 FEET TO BE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE AND
EXPECT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO BE NECESSARY BY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 82 74 / 60 60 60 30
STT 83 77 84 74 / 70 70 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST WED FEB 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LONG FETCH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED THE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL OVER PUERTO RICO. THERMOMETER REACHED 91
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT...ABOUT 7
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMAL FOR TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTED THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MONA
PASSAGE AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO SINCE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE QUARTER.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AS THIS DEEP LAYER LOW MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...IT WILL
PUSH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE PR/USVI TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FORCING ALOFT IS NOT AS GOOD...SO EXPECT MAINLY
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PR/USVI. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING LOWER PWAT VALUES AS MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND...
KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...WITH PDS OF
VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS PR THIS
AFT...SPREADING TO THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER IN THE PD. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGE AS LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
INVADE THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY. MIGRATORY LOWS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING A SERIES OF NNW SWELLS INTO OUR WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN SWELL GROUPS WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION ON LATE THURSDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE BOTH EVENT WILL
TRIGGER HIGH SURF ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH COASTLINES OF
PR AND NORTHERN USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 85 / 60 60 30 60
STT 77 84 74 85 / 70 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST THU FEB 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO FORCING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS FLOW WILL
TURN WEST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AT HIGH MID-LATITUDES PASSES TO
OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND PASS OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
RETURN TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SATURDAY EVEN WHILE ANCHORED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEARLY ABSENT
TODAY...IS FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY IN LIMITED QUANTITIES AND
CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK WHEN SUBSIDENCE WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF LOWS WILL PLY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 240 HOURS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO FORM A RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ALONG AROUND 22 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND SUPPORT THE RESUMPTION OF OUR TYPICAL
TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SPOTTY AND INTERMITTENT RADAR COVERAGE WAS
NEVERTHELESS SUFFICIENT TO OBSERVE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TAIL
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO RECEIVED RAIN. SAN JUAN SAW A TOTAL OF
64 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A FEW MVFR CEILINGS. A TRACE ALSO FELL IN SAINT
CROIX...THOUGH THIS COULD NOT BE CONFIRMED BY RADAR. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED EAST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS WITH SOME MOISTURE TRAILING AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SIGNATURE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN OUR AREA AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RETURN
NORTH AGAIN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOME OF THIS
WILL RETURN IN VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL PRESENT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. EXTREME DRYNESS ABOVE 650 MB AND INCREASING WINDS SUGGEST
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FORGE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS TOPS WILL LIKELY SHEAR OFF AS
RISING PARCELS RISE IN DAYTIME HEATING ABOVE 15 TO 20 THOUSAND
FEET AND DRY OUT. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST. SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS SHOULD STILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
SPOTTY MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS...INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...AND THE LIFTED INDEX REMAINS ABOVE MINUS 3 THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE MINUS 1.5 AFTER THAT. THEREFORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND YIELD ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS WHERE RAIN
DOES OCCUR. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS SEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS...AND BEYOND THAT...THE NEXT STRONG FRONT THAT
APPROACHES MAY ALSO COPY THE PERFORMANCE OF THIS LAST ONE THAT
CAME THROUGH AND LEFT US UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...PERIODS OF VCSH AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX/TNCM THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES DURING THE
FCST PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 15 KTS...SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 12/12Z...AND INCREASING BETWEEN 10 TO 20
KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAD BEEN RUNNING OVER 9 FEET FOR THE LAST 5 TO 6
HOURS AT BUOY 41043...AND ARE STILL VERY CLOSE AS OF 5 AM AST.
THE SAME NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ALSO ARRIVED IN RINCON AND SAN JUAN
BOOSTING SEAS TO JUST UNDER 5 FEET. FARTHER NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST
SWELL OF ALMOST 15 FEET AND 13 SECONDS PERIOD ARE NOW ARRIVING AT
BUOY 41046...500 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE
THAT ANOTHER MAJOR SWELL EVENT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SWELL SHOULD BRING 10 FOOT SWELL TO THE
LOCAL WATERS IN 24 HOURS MUCH AS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT
GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 73 / 50 50 50 50
STT 85 74 85 74 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST THU FEB 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PULL
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COUPLE LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS......HAVING LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO. IN CONTRAST...THE SOUTH COAST OF PR AND THE USVI
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT NO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE FORMED ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PR KEEPING THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ALLOWING THE
SURFACE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FORCING ALOFT IS NOT AS GOOD...SO EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RAINFALL
WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PR/USVI OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THEN...MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION...PROMOTING MORE
STABLE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS PR/USVI.

&&

.AVIATION...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...PERIODS OF VCSH AND TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER
EVEN IN CIGS ARE NOT MVFR...EXPECT CIGS AT AROUND FL060. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING AFTER 13/13Z FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BUILT UP TO 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT BUOY
41043. LOCAL BUOYS INDICATED THAT THE SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS NNW SWELLS CONTINUE TO
APPROACH TO THE REGION. THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WAVE HEIGHT IN
OUR WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT...HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH/ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 87 / 40 60 50 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 50 50 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
FLOW SOUTHWEST UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THE RIDGE RETURNS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY UNTIL A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH AND DAMPENS
IT OUT THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN CONNECTED TO HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS HOLDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE IS SPOTTY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS NOW SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE
FIRST 10 THOUSAND FEET BUT WILL DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST BECAUSE THE SHEAR-LINE RETURNS THROUGH THE
AREA THEN DUE TO PATCHES OF MOISTURE BROUGHT IN FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THAT RE-DEVELOPS WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE
AREA AND HOLDS HIGHER PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERMITTENT TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR COVERAGE SHOWED
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS JUST NORTHEAST
OF LUQUILLO. NO SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER LAND IN PUERTO RICO EXCEPT
ON THE FAR EASTERN TIP...WHERE LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH FELL. SAINT
CROIX RECEIVED 4 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MODEST MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHEAR LINE...AND WILL DECREASE AFTER TODAY...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED IN DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH 20 KFT AFTER THE
SHEAR-LINE HAS BECOME DIFFUSED AND MOVED NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
STABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH...HOWEVER AND THE GFS SHOWS THE
LIFTED INDEX BECOMING POSITIVE AFTER SUNDAY AND CONTINUING NEAR
ZERO THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHALLOW
MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...PERIODS OF VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY. AFT 13/18Z...SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NE PR AND SAINT THOMAS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEN AFT 13/13Z E TO NE
AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REACHED 11 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF
15 SECONDS AT BUOY 41043 AND THIS ACTION WILL ARRIVE ALMOST
UNDIMINISHED DURING THE MORNING ON LOCAL NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FACING ATLANTIC COAST LINES. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING BUT SWELL
ABOVE 7 FEET ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING SEAS
HAZARDOUS. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH...BUT NO REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SO
FAR. HIGH TIDE HAS JUST OCCURRED AND THE NEXT HIGHER TIDE WILL NOT
COME UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 74 / 60 40 30 30
STT 83 74 84 75 / 50 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST FRI FEB 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW DEEP LAYER LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NNW SWELLS GENERATED BY
THESE MIGRATORY LOWS WILL IMPACT THE REGIONAL WATERS AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND HALF-INCH SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. VILLALBA...CIALES AND AIBONITO EXPERIENCED THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
FROM THE SW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PR AND USVI OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEN...THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PASSING SHOWERS LIKELY
AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN PR AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN...MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP...SUPPRESSING MOST
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOME OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH...AND NE
PR...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ. WINDS E TO NE AT 5
TO 15 KTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 14/02Z INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NNW SWELL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SAN JUAN AND RINCON NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE
STILL SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8-10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE MODELS ARE UNDER-ESTIMATING A SECOND PULSE OF THIS SWELL
THAT MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41043. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE OVERALL SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY. LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...HIGH SURF...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 86 / 40 30 30 30
STT 74 84 75 85 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST SAT FEB 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH INDUCED BY THE REMNANTS OF A SHEAR LINE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW LEAVING
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUILDING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONAL WATERS ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS DRIFTED AWAY FROM MAINLAND PUERTO RICO TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY
RAIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING RECORD RAINFALL OVER THE ISLANDS OF ST
THOMAS...AS WAS OBSERVED WITH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SO FAR OVER 9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 6 PM AST FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE CYRIL E KING AIRPORT AT ST THOMAS. THEREFORE...
A FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AS WELL ACROSS THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX...THAT SO FAR HAD REPORTED
ONLY 31 HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. PLEASE IF YOU SEE FLOODING REPORT IT
TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICER AND HAVE THEM RELAY IT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO-SAN JUAN.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SHEAR LINE INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH HIGH MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREAS. THEREFORE
PASSING SHOWERS...SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY...AND CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS AFTERNOON....MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED ALSO.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN...SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI BEGINNING
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL AT
TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 14/10Z IN +SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14/04Z EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR
AT TNCM AND TKPK. VCSH ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER TIST...AND TISX
THROUGH 14/12Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS BUT
GUSTS TO 30 KT PSBL VCNTY SHRA. INCRG WEST WINDS ABV 10 KFT TO SW
AT 60 KT AT FL350-400.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET ARE AFFECTING
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO
AND NORTHERN CULEBRA. ALTHOUGH SEA HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.
LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 84 74 / 40 30 30 40
STT 84 75 84 74 / 30 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SAT FEB 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH INDUCED BY THE REMNANTS OF A SHEAR
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THE UPCOMING WEEK...
BRINGING STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A STRONG
SURFACE LOW LEAVING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BUILDING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONAL
WATERS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM EASTERN PR TO THE
NORTHERN USVI IN THE MORNING HOURS CAUSE SOME PERSISTENT SHOWERS
WHICH CAUSED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOUTHEASTERN PR
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN SAINT THOMAS. SINCE MIDNIGHT...THE
SAINT THOMAS AIRPORT HAS OBSERVED 8.68 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS
NOT ONLY A RECORD BREAKING DAY...BUT ALSO HAS ALREADY BROKEN THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER PUERTO
RICO HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WHERE A CREEK WAS
REPORTED TO HAVE GONE OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODED A ROAD IN
YABUCOA. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE AREAS THAT WERE EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PR AS WELL AS EASTERN PR.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SHEAR LINE CONTINUE TO INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREAS.
THEREFORE PASSING SHOWERS...SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY...AND CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...SOME OF THEM COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN...SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI BEGINNING
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLD LYS BTW FL025 TO FL090. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND AT MOST TAF SITES....EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR W PASSING
SHRA AND LOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY VCTY TJSJ AND TJNR AND ALSO EN ROUTE
BTW E PR AND NRN USVI. MTN TOP OBSCR ERN PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS
AND -SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINLY SE TO S LESS THAN 10 KTS BLO
FL100..BCM FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX WND OF 60 KTS NR FL350.
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...LGT/VRB SFC WNDS ALONG
COASTAL REGIONS W/OCNL HIGH GUST OF 25-30 PSBL WITH PASSING SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS STILL
REPORTING SEAS OF 7.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 13 SECONDS...THIS
MEANS THAT STILL LATE TONIGHT...WE COULD BE OBSERVING SEAS OF 6 TO
7 FEET WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD IN THE NORTH COASTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IF NECESSARY...STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 83 / 30 30 40 40
STT 75 84 74 85 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN FEB 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH CONVERGENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
OUT OF A SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION JUST OFF OF THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS
TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK...BRINGING STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
STRONG SURFACE LOW LEAVING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS GENERATING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL IMPACT
THE REGIONAL WATERS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
TO THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE RAIN ON
AND OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE ARCHIPELAGO
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WHICH UNDER THE EXPECTED SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY...AS IS SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN...SUPPRESSING MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PR/USVI BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW NNE OF
THE AREA IS BRINGING LIGHT RA TO WESTERN PR AND WILL CONT TO MOVE
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE AREA. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
ALL OF PR TIL 15/18Z BUT CLDS AND SHRA WILL REMAIN BYD 16/02Z.
WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN MOSTLY -RA. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED E OF TJNR AFT 15/18Z WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS
THRU 16/12Z. WINDS BLO FL100 S LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TODAY...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY MONDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE ATLANTIC. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING
TUESDAY TO CAUSE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS. FOR BEACH
GOERS...THE CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS STILL SUPPORTING A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF HAVING RIP CURRENTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTLINE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 83 73 / 40 30 30 50
STT 83 74 85 74 / 50 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST SUN FEB 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
REMAINS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW LEAVING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GENERATING
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONAL WATERS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SKIES BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN USVI...WITH ST CROIX OBSERVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS SEVERAL SECTORS OF PR...FROM EASTERN
PR TO THE SAN JUAN METRO TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OBSERVED BY THE USGS RAIN GAUGES REACHED JUST OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF HUMACAO AND PONCE. OTHERWISE
THE TOTALS OBSERVED WERE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.

THIS CLOUDINESS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH
CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS
THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS WELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS WELL AS
THE USVI.

STARTING ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AN EASTERLY
TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD ESTABLISH...IMPROVING THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL. THE OVERALL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT WHICH MAY CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN
AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WHEN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS...BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL025 TO FL100. ISOLD AREAS OF
-SHRA/SHRA ALONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. FEW TCU N OF PR AND EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND USVI...ISOLD
TOPS BTW 150-200 SLIGHTLY HIGHER W/CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT OVR LAND TIL
15/22Z. L/LVL WND FLOW LGT/VRB BLO FL150 BCMG FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV
TO MAX WND AROUND 65 KTS BTW FL350-FL400.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY LEADING TO
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 86 / 30 30 50 50
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 40 40