Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gboudx]

Maybe Sunday we will get a better idea of what will really happen.

Maybe you can punish Lucy to her room for the weekend.

[dhweather]

Maybe Sunday we will get a better idea of what will really happen.

Maybe you can punish Lucy to her room for the weekend.

She's waiting to crush every cell of my being this spring with no rain. I have little doubt that she will be successful. Faux Nino has just screwed up everything.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately for snow-lovers, it's more than a few GFS runs. Both the European and Canadian backed away from the colder air and winter precip. Overnight runs indicate no more than a light freeze in Dallas & Houston on Wednesday with snow from the Red River northward. I think there's still a fair chance some colder air will come down and the D-FW area will see lows of 23-25 Wednesday, but I don't think that the chances for any significant snow were ever that high. Maybe a few flurries and some light accumulations is all I'd expect at best.

I was never bullish on wintry precip chances to begin with. My take was, and continues to be, a much colder airmass for Monday evening into Wednesday, dropping highs some 20-25 degrees from what we're seeing now. I see absolutely no reason to think otherwise at this point.

And now I see *some* reason why it may not get all that cold. The 12z Euro has taken a turn towards the GFS solution for next week. That is a troubling trend if one wants winter-like cold in Texas next week. I'll be eager to see the next 48 hours of model runs and see if this trend continues or if it rolls back to pushing the bulk of the coldest air down into the southern Plains.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is the skew-T at that time for Lindale. Not sure I have ever seen anything like that around here. It is below freezing except right at the surface and though the air is not super cold up to around 700mb it looks cold enough. What is amazing to me is the saturation continues up to 250mb where the temp is -52C. Can anyone tell me how that shows anything but snow?

My .02 - it appears to be right at or just above freezing at the surface, but that looks like a warm nose from 500 down to 850, so anything falling through that likely melts into a cold rain, which may freeze at the surface if temperatures act accordingly. This is the horrible part about trying to forecast winter weather - timing is everything and 2-3 degrees can make a HUGE difference.
Maybe Sunday we will get a better idea of what will really happen.

I can see that, but very little of that column is above freezing and where it is it is just slightly above so I see it as a wet snow more than rain. If as is typical the cold is being underestimated then with even a little lift we could see some decent snow amounts in NE TX. Still a long ways to go before we know quite what the set-up will be, but I like what the models have been showing for the last few days in respects to our snow chances on Tuesday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Another threat that has been showing up for a few runs is light freezing rain for the I-30 corridor of NE TX Sunday night. NE TX could be in store for a few days of various wintery weather events. Though none are showing it to be heavy as there is no nearby low pressure areas. I guess I am seeing this event with much more optimism that most of y'all though being in NE TX helps in this case as that is where most of the excitement looks to be.

[weatherdude1108]

An updated drought monitor from Texas Storm Chasers.

http://texasstormchasers.com/exceptiona ... metroplex/

[TheProfessor]

I'll keep a little bit of hope until the Sunday runs, but this 180 degree turn by the models is really disappointing.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I'll keep a little bit of hope until the Sunday runs, but this 180 degree turn by the models is really disappointing.

That's definitely an understatement.

[aggiecutter]

[Tcu101]

Here is the skew-T at that time for Lindale. Not sure I have ever seen anything like that around here. It is below freezing except right at the surface and though the air is not super cold up to around 700mb it looks cold enough. What is amazing to me is the saturation continues up to 250mb where the temp is -52C. Can anyone tell me how that shows anything but snow?

My .02 - it appears to be right at or just above freezing at the surface, but that looks like a warm nose from 500 down to 850, so anything falling through that likely melts into a cold rain, which may freeze at the surface if temperatures act accordingly. This is the horrible part about trying to forecast winter weather - timing is everything and 2-3 degrees can make a HUGE difference.


Maybe Sunday we will get a better idea of what will really happen.

Am i seeing this wrong? I don't see temps above 0 degrees except at the surface? Maybe I'm reading the Skew lines wrong??

[Ntxw]

That sounding is a snow sounding. Maybe 32-34F at the immediate surface but the whole column is below freezing essentially.



I bolded the 0C line everything to the left is below freezing and to the right is above. A warm nose has to cross to the right. It is a little dry at the lower levels however hence the DP and temperature spreading out below 850C.

[dhweather]

See if I post without using my glasses again. DERP!!!!


I followed the wrong line. My bad!


P.S. if you find my glasses, I appreciate you letting me know. MIA

[Ntxw]

See if I post without using my glasses again. DERP!!!!


I followed the wrong line. My bad!

No worries! Many forget the chart goes diagonal all the time. I did it all the time back in the day . We'll know a warm nose when we see it, December 2013 was as classic as it gets! See below for that event, that's a true blue ice storm skew T

[Tcu101]

See if I post without using my glasses again. DERP!!!!


I followed the wrong line. My bad!


P.S. if you find my glasses, I appreciate you letting me know. MIA

Maybe the HeatMiser stashed them in his oven keeping them toasty

[TheProfessor]

Sunday night could be very interesting if the models are underestimating the cold, or if the low tracks a bit further south.

[Tcu101]

NWS Fort Worth just posted a new graphic with the following description. Either way looks like they are expecting low qpf totals.

Late Sunday night, temperatures will fall to or below freezing north of a Comanche to Canton line, and a cold rain will change over to freezing rain. The area highlighted in red, north of a Breckenridge to Paris line, will have the best chance of light accumulations of ice on bridges and overpasses in the pre-dawn and morning hours. The yellow highlighted area has a lesser potential for icing, but isolated slick spots could develop on some bridges and overpasses. Temperatures will warm above freezing by midday Monday. This winter event is still over two days away and the forecast will likely change as new information is received. Please stay abreast with later forecasts as we update them.

[TheProfessor]

I'm always right on the line being a mile or two north of the southern county line of Denton county lol, though winter weather has usually gone in my favor in which snow/ice totals 5 miles south of me have been a lot different on some occasions.

[CaptinCrunch]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161-141200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-LIMESTONE-
328 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2015

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 60S. AS
THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
FALL AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO
CANTON LINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
MCKINNEY TO PARIS LINE. IN THIS AREA...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
MAY OCCUR...IN PARTICULAR ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...INCLUDING
THE DFW METROPLEX...ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS MAY OCCUR ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON SO ANY ICE
IS EXPECTED TO MELT.

AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE
TO ATHENS LINE AND SOME AREAS MAY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE
THE EVENT ENDS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S...LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ON
ROADS NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND/OR IMPACTS DUE TO THE SNOW. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL ON AREA
ROADWAYS MAY REFREEZE INTO BLACK ICE.

THE DETAILS SURROUNDING THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE STILL BEING FINE TUNED WITH EACH MODEL RUN. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST AND PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

[Ralph's Weather]

See if I post without using my glasses again. DERP!!!!


I followed the wrong line. My bad!


P.S. if you find my glasses, I appreciate you letting me know. MIA

It is all good, I was wondering how melting was going to occur at subfreezing temps.

Also, can anyone point me to where I can see skew-Ts with more than just temps? I am interested to see where the lift is so I can determine dendritic zones.

[dhweather]

See if I post without using my glasses again. DERP!!!!


I followed the wrong line. My bad!

No worries! Many forget the chart goes diagonal all the time. I did it all the time back in the day . We'll know a warm nose when we see it, December 2013 was as classic as it gets! See below for that event, that's a true blue ice storm skew T

My eyes followed the -10 line. The good news? I just found my glasses. The bad news? They were under all my tax stuff that I need to get done and filed.