Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

See if I post without using my glasses again. DERP!!!!


I followed the wrong line. My bad!


P.S. if you find my glasses, I appreciate you letting me know. MIA

Maybe the HeatMiser stashed them in his oven keeping them toasty

He has skills - I think he can just look at stuff and make it melt.

[Yukon Cornelius]

At least the CMC still looks good.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS gives some hope for at least seeing snow fall. We want the southern stream storm to not shear out and it will be a bigger deal. You Arklatex folks I think have a good shot. If you want to snow chase all guidance puts snow down into Arkansas, central Arkansas (around Little Rock) is a good place to start.

[Portastorm]

I was just going to point that out. You North Texas folks will LOVE the 18z GFS run. Too bad it's the 18z GFS.

[hriverajr]

I have given up down here...

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 13 February 2015 15:21 CST

Good afternoon,

We continue to monitor a developing storm system that will bring precipitation and colder air to North and Central Texas early next week. The latest change from our thinking yesterday is that we may face two rounds of possible winter precipitation Monday and Tuesday. While a significant winter storm IS NOT expected for our area, we do have some confidence that at least some freezing snow and/or light snow could develop Monday and Tuesday. The attached graphic depicts are current thinking.

BOTTOM LINE: Emergency Managers, elected officials, public works departments, and other public safety officials should monitor for the potential of winter precipitation from late Sunday night through Tuesday. Some minor ice impacts to bridges, overpasses, and even some roadways could occur in counties closer to the Red River early Monday morning. Please check the forecast frequently this weekend, as adjustments could occur with later model guidance. Another update will be issued via e-mail early Saturday afternoon.

PRIMARY IMPACTS:Freezing rain would be the primary potential impact with this storm. An arctic cold front will move into Texas Sunday evening. Between midnight and 8 am Monday morning, surface temperatures over North Texas could dip into the 28 to 34 degree range. Light rain will also move into the area early Monday. If it arrives quickly enough, it may coincide with the sub-freezing temperatures and produce some light icing of elevated surfaces, including bridges and overpasses, by daybreak Monday. Accumulations of ice should be quite light - generally less than 0.10". Any light freezing rain that develops should end from west to east by late morning Monday, with air temperatures recovering into the mid 30s by afternoon.

Another potential impact could be light snow, which has the potential of falling across North and Central Texas late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. With air temperatures mostly remaining in the lower to middle 30s Monday night/Tuesday morning, any accumulations that do occur would be confined to grassy surfaces, with no travel impacts.

Finally, temperatures overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s in areas north of Interstate 20. Any residual moisture on roadways/bridges north of this line could be subject to some freezing, resulting in a few slick spots Wednesday morning.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN: The primary area of concern for any icing impacts would be north of a Breckenridge to McKinney to Paris line early Monday morning, with those counties immediately adjacent to the Red River facing the greatest potential. While some isolated and very light icing on exposed/elevated surfaces is not completely out of the question for the DFW Metroplex and elsewhere along Interstate 20, no appreciable travel impacts are expected in these areas.

Light snow will be possible north of a Goldthwaite to Athens line Tuesday morning. Accumulations, if any, would be primarily confined to the counties closest to the Red River.

TIMING: An arctic front will sweep through North and Central Texas Sunday evening, ushering in gusty north winds and colder temperatures. Light rain should begin across the area after midnight Monday morning, with the potential for a changeover to freezing rain between 2 am and 6 am in our northernmost counties. The rain or freezing rain should end in all areas by 10 am Monday. The potential for light snow will begin in the west around 10 pm Monday night, and continue through 10 am Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: We have low to moderate confidence in the development of some light freezing rain - resulting in a few impacts to bridges and overpasses - over our northern counties early Monday. We ARE confident that surface travel impacts, if any, in the DFW area would be minimal We have low confidence that an additional round of light snow would produce any accumulations over North Texas late Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Right now, we feel our temperature and precipitation forecast is on the cooler and wetter side of the spectrum. We think it's unlikely that low temperatures Monday morning will go even lower than what we are currently predicting. There is a somewhat better chance that the actual readings will be slightly higher than forecast, thus leading to less icing - or no icing at all - in our northern counties.

It is also possible that the convergence of moisture, lift and temperature will not be sufficient for any snow to develop over North Texas early Tuesday morning. An alternate scenario of heavier snow - with accumulations - is considered extremely unlikely.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS continues the good trend for NE TX. It keeps the cold and adds more moisture. Also the 12Z ECMWF looks similar from what I can see on the free version. I am becoming more and more confident that most everybody in NE TX will see snow Tuesday morning with a few inches possible if things line up right. This 500mb pattern for Tuesday morning is good if you want snow without worry of freezing rain or other precip types though it is not a recipe for heavy snow though we have been surprised before.

[Ntxw]

18Z GFS continues the good trend for NE TX. It keeps the cold and adds more moisture. Also the 12Z ECMWF looks similar from what I can see on the free version. I am becoming more and more confident that most everybody in NE TX will see snow Tuesday morning with a few inches possible if things line up right. This 500mb pattern for Tuesday morning is good if you want snow without worry of freezing rain or other precip types though it is not a recipe for heavy snow though we have been surprised before.

It won't take much for this to be a bigger surprise event. You just want the baja low to come out and have the models underestimate it. I think the cold air will be there, it's always about timing.

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow:

I was just going to point that out. You North Texas folks will LOVE the 18z GFS run. Too bad it's the 18z GFS.

The 18z run of the GFS is always right, especially when forecasting 3 or more inches of snow in Texarkana.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS continues the good trend for NE TX. It keeps the cold and adds more moisture. Also the 12Z ECMWF looks similar from what I can see on the free version. I am becoming more and more confident that most everybody in NE TX will see snow Tuesday morning with a few inches possible if things line up right. This 500mb pattern for Tuesday morning is good if you want snow without worry of freezing rain or other precip types though it is not a recipe for heavy snow though we have been surprised before.

It won't take much for this to be a bigger surprise event. You just want the baja low to come out and have the models underestimate it. I think the cold air will be there, it's always about timing.

This is the best pure snow system we have had over the last couple winters at least. Been a while since I have seen substantial precip with the column fully below freezing and saturated. Like you said we just need the Baja low to be underestimated which would not surprise me as it looks too weak on the models. That would give a much larger area a chance at snow from West Texas on Monday to North and Central Texas Monday night and North and East Texas Tuesday morning. Also this could trigger a NW Gulf low which brings a whole other set of surprises on Tuesday. At the least this looks like a widespread .5-1.5 inch storm with the potential for 3+ inches over East Texas if we get a NW Gulf low. There is a reason that I have been on this storm even with the crazy models losing the cold or send the trough too far east. This storm will very likely start as a Texas event spread snow all across the South and East from here.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:

I was just going to point that out. You North Texas folks will LOVE the 18z GFS run. Too bad it's the 18z GFS.

The 18z run of the GFS is always right, especially when forecasting 3 or more inches of snow in Texarkana.

Normally I would discount it too with being the 18Z, but it is part of the overall trend towards what has been expected. Though I think Texarkana could get hit pretty good it is far too soon to say with any certainty.

[Brent]

Here's hoping I just want a good surprise for once

[Shoshana]

Still expecting cold rain here and would be happily surprised by white fluffy stuff.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM will raise some eyebrows. Beware though it is the NAM, but at least it looks somewhat like the 18z GFS. We're not that far off from something more.

[Brent]

Hopefully the start of a trend we've earned this one

[Texas Snowman]

0z NAM will raise some eyebrows. Beware though it is the NAM, but at least it looks somewhat like the 18z GFS. We're not that far off from something more.

Wasn't it the NAM that nailed the Super Bowl week snowstorm in North Texas? Or was it the 12+ inch snowstorm?

All while the GFS said "Not much snow for you!"

[aggiecutter]

Todd Warren NBC 6
Latest run of Futurecast is in and is keeping Ice accumulatioin of 1/10 to 1/4" over SE OK, SW AR, and extreame NE TX. Freezing line could dip a little further south into N. Louisiana to places like Homer to as far south as Arcadia. Still looks like a cold rain in Shreveport.

[TheProfessor]

0z NAM will raise some eyebrows. Beware though it is the NAM, but at least it looks somewhat like the 18z GFS. We're not that far off from something more.

Wasn't it the NAM that nailed the Super Bowl week snowstorm in North Texas? Or was it the 12+ inch snowstorm?

All while the GFS said "Not much snow for you!"

It was the 2010 storm, I always remember because it was the first storm I used computer models on, and when I told my friends about the NAM they all thought I was delusional.

[orangeblood]

0z NAM will raise some eyebrows. Beware though it is the NAM, but at least it looks somewhat like the 18z GFS. We're not that far off from something more.

Haha, raising eyebrows is an understatement!!! It's got a Major winter storm crossing this state in less than 4 days...get your popcorn ready! This model war should be interesting, particularly how it handles that Baja UL

Latest Nam looks almost identical to what the GFS was showing a few days ago

[Brent]

Mmmm. Can I cash out on the 84 hour NAM? lol