Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

0z NAM will raise some eyebrows. Beware though it is the NAM, but at least it looks somewhat like the 18z GFS. We're not that far off from something more.

Haha, raising eyebrows is an understatement!!! It's got a Major winter storm crossing this state in less than 4 days...get your popcorn ready! This model war should be interesting, particularly how it handles that Baja UL

Latest Nam looks almost identical to what the GFS was showing a few days ago

In my list of 5 things I posted yesterday, assuming the cold is here, lift, moisture available and timing are the keys. A few hours either way can make a huge difference. If the column dries out too quickly, lift is weak, there is so much at stake. I'd love to wake up to 4-6" of powder Monday morning. That would be great. But I'm gonna wait a little longer before I get excited.

[aggiecutter]

[Brent]

Up in Oklahoma an hour north of me, Ardmore and Durant:


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING: LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THIS RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES SUNDAY EVENING. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE ENDING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

Yada yada... onto the fun stuff:

THE NEXT CONCERN IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE MAIN
FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES VERY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AS THIS
TROUGH APPROACHES COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONG FORCING BUT THE
MOISTURE WILL ONLY REMAIN AVAILABLE FOR A FEW HOURS

[TexasF6]

On the SPC site you can clearly see the Arctic high moving straight south. It has begun. Apparent temps are at -30 into the US and this cold air has the look of being serious this time around. I still believe Joe. Let it snow!!!

[TexasF6]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 9h 9 hours ago
On Feb 7 http://Weatherbell.com post analyzed threat for major eastern storm in Feb 16-20.Have not backed off in spite of models being east

[hriverajr]

Trajectory of the Arctic High at moment indicates a back doorish type front. It would appear winds will quickly change back to east and southeast, 36 hours later at the most. It does not cause much excitement in my brain. :\

[aggiecutter]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
82 FROM CLARKSVILLE TEXAS...TO TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...


ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-142200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0001.150216T0600Z-150217T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE
630 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
APPROACHING UPPER STORM WILL BRING A COLD RAIN LATE ON SUNDAY
AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

[Tireman4]

Trajectory of the Arctic High at moment indicates a back doorish type front. It would appear winds will quickly change back to east and southeast, 36 hours later at the most. It does not cause much excitement in my brain. :\

Oh sir, you must believe. . I am thinking ( and again, I am a historian, you are a meteorologist) that this could start the arctic fronts to start coming into March...

[Ntxw]

Trajectory of the Arctic High at moment indicates a back doorish type front. It would appear winds will quickly change back to east and southeast, 36 hours later at the most. It does not cause much excitement in my brain. :\

Yeah, that's kind of where it has to come from though. It's not that cold in Western Canada as it is near Hudson Bay. You have to be optimistic about the 5h pattern it's better than what we had! Heights are starting to rise off the west coast lets see where it takes us. Watch as a cruel irony the AO/NAO couplet will reverse negative come March

[Portastorm]

Speaking of teleconnections, yesterday's forecast of a -PNA/+AO coming later this month into early March. If that verifies ... depressing.

[hriverajr]

This winter has been one of Model Promises...

[TexasF6]

From Ryan

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9yaLmnCYAA9_IO.png

[hriverajr]

I just don't see any "special" weather for Texas. This front will be backdoor, and its effects will be short term. There is currently westerly flow now impinging on western Canada. In the central plains surface winds are already veering to the East and Southeast. I am saying this not by looking at models but by looking at sat pics and surface reports, like I used to do in my younger years. Of course it does not get me into lala land but its just about as good as the models a week out.

[dhweather]

Since the November blast, it seems almost every significant cold event has been a back door. That's just how 2014-15 is and will be remembered. We have had some cold spells, nothing sustained, simply transitory.

[dhweather]

dang, the 12Z GFS doesn't even have a freeze for DFW in the next 2 weeks.

[Portastorm]

dang, the 12Z GFS doesn't even have a freeze for DFW in the next 2 weeks.

Yep. I've tried to keep the faith here and felt like there might be a chance that things would turn around. It looks bleak. This winter will be known for crushing the Northeast in February. All cold air was focused there. We had a decent blast in November but that's been it. These back door-ish fronts do little if anything. Since we're not going to get any real winter, it might as well be spring and severe weather season.

[gboudx]

I don't think I've read the FWD NWS refer to the Ouchita mountains affecting cold air advection before:

THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AS OF 3 PM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND ENTER NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. OWING TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...IT APPEARS THE MODELS WANT TO RETARD ITS ADVANCE JUST A BIT ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE BLOCKING INFLUENCES OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS IN SE OK/SW AR. AS A RESULT...BELIEVE MOST OF THE METROPLEX AND POINTS SOUTH WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

[Brent]

This winter will go down as the worst tease...

[aggiecutter]

Look like things could get dicey around the Texarkana area on Monday morning. The dreaded >.25" accumulation of ice is being forecasted:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
356 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
82 FROM CLARKSVILLE TEXAS...TO TEXARKANA AND EL DORADO ARKANSAS...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-150600-
/O.CON.KSHV.WS.A.0001.150216T0600Z-150217T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE
356 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* EVENT...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN
WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

* TIMING...EXPECT THE ONSET OF FREEZING RAIN BY MIDNIGHT OR VERY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF MONDAY.

* IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AS WELL
AS SECONDARY ROADWAYS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I 30 CORRIDOR IN ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION...POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN ACROSS THESE AREAS...AS TREE
LIMBS BECOME LADEN WITH ICE.

[Tireman4]

Why oh why does this remind me of Winter 2011....tell me I wrong ....please ( I know it was dry as a bone)