SIO 96S INVEST

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
104.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 102.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES WHICH CONTINUES TO WRAP IN TOWARDS AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 1417Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
AVERAGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS GREATLY OFFSET BY 20 TO 30 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.