Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

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Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4661 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:58 pm

TexasF6 wrote:Wxman57, in all his heated glory? Got snow? Today? Get outta here!!! I do not believe it. :spam:



Just toying with us...
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#4662 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:46 pm

Temps slowly fell all day and are solidly below freezing now. We will see if we manage any flakes tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4663 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:49 pm

According to the latest Euro Weeklies, Winter is officially over in the southern plains starting in 2 weeks (PNA falls off a cliff/floods the lower 48 with Pacific Air)....any shot at winter weather better happen quick!! Considering the analogs going in - one of the more disappointing winters I can remember, hopefully we can end it on a good note!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4664 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:52 pm

orangeblood wrote:According to the latest Euro Weeklies, Winter is officially over in the southern plains starting in 2 weeks (PNA falls off a cliff/floods the lower 48 with Pacific Air)....any shot at winter weather better happen quick!! Considering the analogs going in - one of the more disappointing winters I can remember, hopefully we can end it on a good note!


Yeah but the latest Euro Weeklies also indicate several storm systems bringing us many rounds of rain chances. We could see some good drought relief across Texas if this run verifies. I sure hope it does!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4665 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:
dhweather wrote:Here was my trip to the PWC offices



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRrMu7B1L2I


Yes, the PWC mets have a propensity for 80s hair metal. Now you know. The views also explain the shoddy work effort and forecasting.



But the jovial mood of the PWC mets cannot be beaten!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4666 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 16, 2015 9:33 pm

:uarrow:

Indeed dhweather they love their work. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4667 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:20 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Indeed dhweather they love their work. :lol:


If you deliver in the next 2 weeks, you can get that monkey off your back, no pun intended.
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#4668 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:27 pm

Looks like, by radar, that Lubbock is getting some decent snow that is currently moving East.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4669 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:44 pm

Latest GFS trending toward Euro, much stronger HP coming down the Plains late this week. This mornings run looks like an outlier!
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#4670 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:00 am

Bob Rose thinks we have a decent shot next week at some Arctic nether region temps. None of this "back door front" business. :wink: Maybe we'll have one last shot at a Texas Winter 2014-2015 redemption.

Another arctic cold front is forecast to blast south across our area next Sunday, producing an area of rain showers and thunderstorms. Light rain looks to linger behind the cold front Sunday night into next Monday. The temperature will turn much colder beginning Sunday behind the cold front. Note, this next batch of arctic air is forecast to stick around for most of next week. Readings will fall to the 40s Sunday afternoon. Lows Monday morning will be around freezing across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. Temperatures next Monday are forecast to hold mostly in the 30s. Another freeze is expected across much of the region next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the 30s to low 40s. Highs next Wednesday will be in the upper 40s.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4671 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:39 am

Plenty of winter threats/aka cold rains on the 0z GFS LOL... even into March... :roll: Always too far out...
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Re:

#4672 Postby txprog » Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:41 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:Bob Rose thinks we have a decent shot next week at some Arctic nether region temps. None of this "back door front" business. :wink: Maybe we'll have one last shot at a Texas Winter 2014-2015 redemption.

Another arctic cold front is forecast to blast south across our area next Sunday, producing an area of rain showers and thunderstorms. Light rain looks to linger behind the cold front Sunday night into next Monday. The temperature will turn much colder beginning Sunday behind the cold front. Note, this next batch of arctic air is forecast to stick around for most of next week. Readings will fall to the 40s Sunday afternoon. Lows Monday morning will be around freezing across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. Temperatures next Monday are forecast to hold mostly in the 30s. Another freeze is expected across much of the region next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the 30s to low 40s. Highs next Wednesday will be in the upper 40s.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx



Larry Cosgrove, in a Facebook comment replying to a question about the possibility for snow in Dallas, mentioned unusually cold temps for Dallas next week. Maybe winter isn't quite over after all. Remember the late Feb ice storm and cold of 2003? Spectacular stuff by any parameter. 3-5 inches of ice, temps +25 below normal. Maybe it ain't over til it's over......
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4673 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:12 am

I was checking DFW's meteogram from the 0z GFS and made a couple observations:

76 on Saturday, temps crash Saturday Night
Upper 30s on Sunday(some light QPF starts late in the day on Sunday)
32 for a high on Monday, and temps flirt with freezing from Sun Night-Tue Morning with some light QPF amounts(other runs have been a lot wetter in this timeframe, but there seems to be consistent energy nearby)
Only 40s for highs Tue/Wed
Only 50s for highs Thu/Fri

and the warmest temperature in the rest of the 384 hours is only 63! Much much colder than how its been this month

Now we'll see how it trends in the coming days... I don't believe anything at this point but I want to watch and see how it trends. It hasn't even been consistent today so...

and while I can't get as detailed with the Euro... apparently it has a similar storm in the Monday timeframe with some cold air involved...

For comparison:

The 18z GFS meteogram had this:

70 on Saturday
Only 40s Sun/Mon/Tue with light QPF throughout, no freezing temps
Then 70s to open March

The 12z had:

60s on Saturday
71 on Sunday
Only 50s on Mon/Tue(again light QPF but way warm)

The 6z was the best run of the day for widespread and significant winter weather:

68 on Saturday
Mid 30s on Sunday(precip moves in as temps crash)
20s Monday(with more precip)
32 on Tuesday(with more precip)
Then 40s the rest of the week
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#4674 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 6:45 am

I want to believe , I do. Sigh....
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4675 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:35 am

In regards to winter weather returning to Texas...
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4676 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:46 am

Light sleet with some occasional grauple mixed in across NW Harris County at this time.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4677 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:46 am

Tireman4 wrote:
TexasF6 wrote:Wxman57, in all his heated glory? Got snow? Today? Get outta here!!! I do not believe it. :spam:


Just toying with us...


No, saw a video yesterday of a brief flurry of snow just west of my house. I didn't see any, though.
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#4678 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:56 am

Nice and brisk this morning. Woo Hoo. My run will be great again. Thank you Mother Nature for this brief period of Winter. :)
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Re:

#4679 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:28 am

Tireman4 wrote:Nice and brisk this morning. Woo Hoo. My run will be great again. Thank you Mother Nature for this brief period of Winter. :)


I had a great run this morning, too. I ran 100 ft. from my car to my office. That took longer than I wanted to be outside in this miserable weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#4680 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:32 am

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Public reports of light sleet and snow flurries across Grimes, Montgomery, and NW Harris Counties since about 700am this morning.

Radar shows increasing light activity approaching from Colorado and Austin Counties currently and some of this may be reaching the ground in the form of light sleet and very light snow. Surface temperatures range from 32 at College Station to 33 at Conroe to 36 at Sugar Land with most of the area above freezing. This should result in any sleet or snow melting on contact with the ground with no impacts expected.

Precipitation should end by late morning with temperatures slowly warming into the 40’s.
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