Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

Nice and brisk this morning. Woo Hoo. My run will be great again. Thank you Mother Nature for this brief period of Winter.

I had a great run this morning, too. I ran 100 ft. from my car to my office. That took longer than I wanted to be outside in this miserable weather.

Well my gracious sir. Shall I send the heat at my place to your place 2 miles away. It is just sunny and pleasant here...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Sleet shower at my house right now in Missouri City/Sugar Land.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Band of sleet and light snow moving into the US 59 corridor. Law enforcement and public reports light snow along US 290 and SH 249 in the Tomball and Cypress area and along I-10 in Katy and Fulshear.

Radar shows higher reflectivity which is likely slightly heavier sleet/snow over NW Fort Bend County moving toward Sugar Land and SW Harris County.

Band of precipitation should exit SE TX in the next 2-3 hours, but until then light sleet and snow is possible across the region…no accumulation is expected with temperatures at or above freezing and warm ground.

[gboudx]

Any of that heading to 57's house? Would be cool if it did with enough accumulation for him to write a message to Ntwx.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Any of that heading to 57's house? Would be cool if it did with enough accumulation for him to write a message to Ntwx.

Should be. I am down the street from him. If it hits me, it hits him...LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For 10 minutes it was coming down pretty hard with what i think was mixed with flurries. Some of the precip was bending and arcing around. All were getting Houston. Its been great lol.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Any of that heading to 57's house? Would be cool if it did with enough accumulation for him to write a message to Ntwx.

Should be. I am down the street from him. If it hits me, it hits him...LOL

I'm at work today, but it's not nearly cold enough for any snowflakes to accumulate.

Just down the street? I'm near Hillcroft & W. Belfort, where are you?

Oh, and the 12Z GFS lost the snow across Texas next Mon-Wed. It still has 4-5 freezes up in the Dallas area through the next 10 days. None in Houston but temps well below normal for us.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Any of that heading to 57's house? Would be cool if it did with enough accumulation for him to write a message to Ntwx.

Should be. I am down the street from him. If it hits me, it hits him...LOL

I'm at work today, but it's not nearly cold enough for any snowflakes to accumulate.

Just down the street? I'm near Hillcroft & W. Belfort, where are you?

Oh, and the 12Z GFS lost the snow across Texas next Mon-Wed. It still has 4-5 freezes up in the Dallas area through the next 10 days. None in Houston but temps well below normal for us.

Rustic and Garland..I thought you were at Hobby....

[Brent]

Never fear... the snow is just delayed til Day 10.



22 at DFW next Monday AM per the 12z GFS... it'd only be fitting if there was zero precip.

[Tireman4]

Never fear... the snow is just delayed til Day 10.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

22 at DFW next Monday AM per the 12z GFS... it'd only be fitting if there was zero precip.

Yea 10 days away.....

[wxman57]

Although the models have been somewhat poor in predicting snow accumulations across Texas of late, they have been pretty good at indicating the persistent pattern across the U.S. and generally below-normal temps across Texas. I do see a pattern change in the 12Z GFS starting around February 28th. The GFS is indicating that the persistent Polar vortex over Hudson/James Bay and the Great Lakes is going to be moving on out of the picture by month's end, in favor of a more progressive pattern of storm systems across the U.S. Without the Polar vortex in place, temperatures across eastern Canada and much of the U.S. east of the Rockies warm considerably going into March.



Below-normal temperature air is building in NW Canada by the 384 hr mark. Below-normal in March is not as cold as below-normal Jan/Feb air, though:

[Brent]

The Monday snow ain't dead yet

[wxman57]

The Monday snow ain't dead yet

http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/v2/15/02 ... bfe0b9.jpg

I imagine that next week's event may turn out to be similar to this week's. Mostly cold rain but with some sleet/snow mixed in. Accumulations may be hard to come by unless the air is a little colder.

[Brent]

@NWSNorman - ‪#‎Boston‬ has seen more ‪#‎snow‬ so far in 2015 than ‪#‎WichitaFalls‬ has in the last 27 years combined.

You're welcome

[BigB0882]

Don't forget, the Euro may be the worst of all when it comes to its snow depth algorithm. I would bet on sleet or freezing rain before any snow, especially in any areas showing less than 2 inches.

[wxman57]

Don't forget, the Euro may be the worst of all when it comes to its snow depth algorithm. I would bet on sleet or freezing rain before any snow, especially in any areas showing less than 2 inches.

That is true! In at least one of its predicted snowfalls across Texas this winter (like 4-6" near Corpus Christi one time) I observed that the model was forecasting well above-normal temps in the lower 5000 ft of the atmosphere while forecasting snow accumulations of several inches. It seems to be best at northern latitudes (like Europe) where one can assume that the lower few thousand feet will be below freezing when conditions higher up are met.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center continues to advertise well below normal temperature and slightly above to above normal precipitation in their Day 6 to 10 Forecast. Some of the analog dates are very impressive for our Region. The WPC Day 3 to 7 surface charts suggest the first in a series of cold fronts arrives Sunday morning. The fly in the ointment continues to be what happens to our West as a deep trough and upper level storm develops across the Great Basin. This upper low and positive tilted cold upper trough may bring some significant snow across portions of the Southern Rockies (Colorado/New Mexico) that has been lacking a bit lately. It does appear there may be a second storm system dropping S from Central/Western Canada into the Great Basin around the middle of next week bringing an additional surge of very cold air across the Inter Mountain West and Plains into Texas and Louisiana.

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth NWS afternoon discussion:

"...WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS OUR N
ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK."

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

...THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT...COMPLETE WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OVERRUNNING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING SUNDAY. THINGS ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT THIS COULD SPELL THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

MODELS DEVIATE SOME AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND THE DAY 7 TIMEFRAME...AS THE POST-FRONTAL SFC RIDGE IS MUCH STRONGER AND MORE INTRUSIVE ON THE GFS VS THE EURO. THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS AS TO IF/WHEN PRECIP WOULD COME TO AN END AND ALSO WITH TEMPS. THE BLENDS SEEM TO HANDLE THESE DISCREPANCIES FAIRLY WELL...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THAT GUIDANCE. /12/

[weatherdude1108]

EWX discussion cracks me up!

"WELL...IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS GAVE UP TRYING TO THINK FOR ITSELF AND JUST COPIED OFF
THE ECMWF...THE GFS WAS ESSENTIALLY SENT TO DETENTION..."


000
FXUS64 KEWX 172054
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL OFF EAST AND THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER TOP OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...A TRANSITION TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
H5 PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. ONE MORE
NIGHT OF COLD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS OUT OF
THE NORTH STILL AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWS FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT AND HILL COUNTRY WILL
PROBABLY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT...WHERE ELSEWHERE LOW
TO MID 30S WILL PERSIST. BY THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WILL BE THE STORY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL GO LARGELY UNCHANGED UNTIL FRIDAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND RAISE SFC
DEWPOINTS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE
EAST AS A WEAK SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS EASTERLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...NO MODEL AGREEMENT WAS TO BE
HAD. WITH GFS ADVERTISING NO FRONT WHATSOEVER AND THE ECMWF
PAINTING A CONSISTENT COLD FRONT PICTURE. WELL...IT APPEARS THAT
THE GFS GAVE UP TRYING TO THINK FOR ITSELF AND JUST COPIED OFF
THE ECMWF TODAY BECAUSE NOW THEY ARE IN ALMOST ALARMING AGREEMENT
WITH FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH. WHILE IT ADDS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE
IN POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS WAS
ESSENTIALLY SENT TO DETENTION LEAVING THE ECMWF AS THE FAVORED
EXTENDED REASONING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

BEYOND SUNDAY...THE EURO BECOMES RATHER COOL AND WET INTO MIDWEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW PASSING OVER TOP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AT THE MOMENT IT IS NOT ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...FORECAST TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS MAY INTRODUCE WINTRY PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER FOR
NOW...DO NOT HAVE ANY REASON TO THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

&&