Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

That ECMWF run sure was interesting. I am waiting to see how the various NWS offices across the state respond with their afternoon packages as that run is quite a bit colder than what I see the NWS showing for point forecasts across Central and South Florida. If the ECMWF is trending colder at this point, definitely should raise some eyebrows.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS trending a little colder and now similar to the ECMWF, freeze line well south of I-4, 33F in Ft. Myers!

NWS Tampa did not bite on the cold ECMWF run (they have Ft. Myers at 37F as an example), but I would think in their next forecast package, they may need to drop temps further across their viewing area:

[northjaxpro]

Latest projections are now indicating a good potential of hard freezes across most of North Florida, with 27 degrees now being indicated for JAX on Thursday morning, and low 20s across the panhandle and Big Bend regions. As I have alluded to for days since last week, this cold air mass will may be headed being among the coldest we will see this winter. Now, remember, although the core of the coldest air will stay just to the north of the region, the Arctic High building down will reach the TN Valley region by late Wednesday. Plus, with an added snow/ ice pack for the TN Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic, this will also aid in keeping this arcctic airmass from moderating very quickly. This is a key variable with which the EURO is latching onto for the colder trends I had anticipated for us here in Florida.

Gatorcane, as you have appreciably done today in showing the latest runs, I would be inclined to think that the chances are pretty good the freeze line just may reach the I-4 corridor this particular time. It is going to be real close this time.

Even you all down in South Florida should manage lows down into the mid -upper 40s along the SE Florida coast Thursday morning , with areas inland South Florida in the northern Everglades and inland just outside of Lake Okeechobee may get into the upper 30s, based on the latest EURO run.

[northjaxpro]

Friday morning will be just a cold, depending upon how close the Arctic HP gets to the peninsula. If it goes into the TN Valley and moves over the Carolinas, an orientation like that would allow the winds here in North Florida to get light enough, especially over interior areas, to likely see another hard freeze, like the GFS is showing in that run you posted above Gatorcane. That is showing 25 degrees here for Friday morning. The orientation of that High makes a world of difference for the peninsula.

But, folks, I can tell you if the trends we are seeing continues, we will have very cold days for Wednesday -Friday. Rain and possibly a few storms will move in during the day tomorrow ahead of the strong front which will move through Jax by tomorrow evening. then temps will fall as mins on Wednesday morning are forecast to drop into the upper 30s -low 4os and max temps with cold, brisk northwest winds on Wednessday only near 50. Max temps Thursday only in the lower 40s projected for Jax currently.

[psyclone]

it's going to suck but I think we'll come through this in pretty good shape. my coldest low actually edged up a degree in the afternoon package (36). Just hide for 2 days and we're good.

[gatorcane]

Excellent analysis northjaxpro, indeed the snowpack has something that has been missing up until this front, so moderation of the airmass should be far less than what we have been seeing.

[TheStormExpert]

Excellent analysis northjaxpro, indeed the snowpack has something that has been missing up until this front, so moderation of the airmass should be far less than what we have been seeing.

Of course if we had a negative NAO this could be a far worse situation! Especially for all the crops, thankfully we've been extremely fortunate since 2010.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM comes in cold for Florida with a widespread freeze for the peninsula away from coast for areas North and west of Lake O with freezing temps all the way down into the Ft. Myers area, this is the first frame we got going out far enough for this event:

[Sanibel]

Toasty warm and sunny down here. Going to 79* today.


34* predicted for Thursday night. 83* on Sunday.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Toasty warm and sunny down here. Going to 79* today.


34* predicted for Thursday night. 83* on Sunday.

Wont be that warm here on Sunday cause of the easterly breeze and a chance of coastal showers.

[ronjon]

This is shaping up to be a brutal freeze event. My forecast low for Friday morning on the coast in Hernando county is now 26 deg!

[psyclone]

my NWS forecast is down to 34. 23 for Brooksville and 29 for Plant City. the coldest of the winter by a wide margin for many areas.

[ronjon]

Yeah NWS forecast 30 deg in Arcadia in DeSoto County and 32 deg at TIA. Many inland locations almost down to the big lake down to freezing!

[NDG]

I have always found that the Tampa NWS office always go with the lowest temps possible on their forecast. If indeed the I-4 corridor sees a freeze Friday morning, which is looking very likely at this point, it will be a light freeze of short duration. Nothing close to the freezes we had back in Jan & Dec of 2010. Considering how cold it has been up north with all kind of record breaking low temps this could had been a lot worst if the NAO had been negative.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I have always found that the Tampa NWS office always go with the lowest temps possible on their forecast. If indeed the I-4 corridor sees a freeze Friday morning, which is looking very likely at this point, it will be a light freeze of short duration. Nothing close to the freezes we had back in Jan & Dec of 2010. Considering how cold it has been up north with all kind of record breaking low temps this could had been a lot worst if the NAO had been negative.

I totally agree on how much worse this could have if we had a negative NAO, in fact these past 3 weeks or so could have been much cooler/colder than average if the NAO was negative, possibly rivaling the cold extremes of 2010!

[gatorcane]

Observations across the panhandle at this hour show just how impressive this arctic blast is...and the worst has yet to come with another reinforcing cold front:

FLZ001>010-012>015-180300-
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PENSACOLA CLEAR 36 25 64 MISG 30.07R
MILTON NAS PTCLDY 33 26 75 N13 30.08R WCI 24
PENSACOLA NAS PTCLDY 37 28 70 N12 30.08R WCI 29
CRESTVIEW CLEAR 35 27 72 N8 30.07R WCI 29
VALPARAISO MOCLDY 37 28 71 N12 30.04R WCI 29
PANAMA CITY FAIR 39 31 72 NW7 30.02R WCI 34

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[gatorcane]

my NWS forecast is down to 34. 23 for Brooksville and 29 for Plant City. the coldest of the winter by a wide margin for many areas.

Here is what the 12Z ECMWF shows for early Fri. AM with the freezing area across the Eastern half of Northern Pinellas...and as expected, warmer as you head south across the county as the surrounding water has more of an influence...that is cutting it real close for you folks in Palm Harbor...

The weather channel forecast has Palm Harbor hitting 32F.
http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/USFL0388:1:US

[northjaxpro]

When the dry reinforcing arctic front comes through here tomorrow evening, it will bring with it some of the coldest temps we hsve seen here since the record cold we had back in November 2014. Mid-iupper 20s.expected across interior Northeast Florida, and temps could get down near upper teens across the panhandle and Big Bend region. Hard freezes likely Thursday and Friday mornings for the northern peninsula.

Looks likly that the I-4 corridor region will see their first freeze of the season either Thursday or Friday morning. Old Man Winter waiting until seemingly the last good window of opportunity (mid February) to deal the central peninsula the virst bonifide cold snap of the season. GFS has the freeze line actually as far south as rhe SW peninsula. I definitely see possible mid-upper 30s across the interior south central peninsula areas just to the north and west of Lake Okeechobee on Thursday-Friday period.

Got a pretty good rain today , picking up about an inch of rainfall with the passage of the current front in the region.

[TheStormExpert]

Another thing that is impressive about this arctic blast, a Key a West is forecast to dip into the low/mid 50's for Thu./Fri. morning! Noticed that they never get that cool/cold unless you get a big cold blast like this where the cold air isn't as shallow.

[psyclone]

It seems more likely that a light freeze will happen in my neck of the woods. I would guess that Pinellas county will be left out of the inevitable freeze watch issuance tomorrow as most of the county won't touch freezing and the areas that do won't likely reach the 3 hour criteria. I'll be out of town (in Polk county) for this event so i'll be interested to see if there's any cold damage at home..as well as how cold it gets over here around Winter Haven.