Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

I vote for member 5 of the 12Z GFS. Well over an inch liquid over most of the state between next Thursday and next Saturday with very subfreezing temps at the surface just about down to the coast and subfreezing 850mb temps over the NW 3/4 of the state. It shows over a foot of snow centered along I-20 during this time. I would hate to be closer to the coast where it would be a major ice storm. Of course other members are not that crazy, but snow and cold in def in the picture for next week though we all know that this winter has not been nice to most of use so that trend will likely continue. It is nice to dream though.

[Texas Snowman]

Oh, I doubt any of the "good stuff" we're hoping for will happen.

But just once this winter, you'd think the proverbial blind hog will find an acorn.

[wxman57]

I thought that was a blind squirrel which finds the acorn? Let's get the next 10 days of cold over with so we can forget all this talk of winter weather and start talking about that first line of heavy spring thunderstorms or the first 90 degree day.

[dhweather]

It is always possible for us to have a freak cold spell - we did in November.

Unfortunately, that's the highlight of Winter 2014-15.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just posted the image below on Twitter. GFS 5-day forecast hasn't been verifying well lately:

[Ralph's Weather]

Heck take a few degrees off of yesterday and we could have gotten the thundersnowstorm they got up in OK and MO. We have been so close that maybe we can get a hailmary to connect at the end of the game or like last year in overtime.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ryan Maue just posted the image below on Twitter. GFS 5-day forecast hasn't been verifying well lately:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-Jn0esCMAAVbfe.png

I think we have all noticed that the GFS has gone a bit cold crazy recently, but hey if we can't get the real thing at least we it is showing our fantasies.

[Texas Snowman]

Heck take a few degrees off of yesterday and we could have gotten the thundersnowstorm they got up in OK and MO. We have been so close that maybe we can get a hailmary to connect at the end of the game or like last year in overtime.

A Hail Mary inside the two-minute warning for the win!

[Texas Snowman]

I think we have all noticed that the GFS has gone a bit cold crazy recently, but hey if we can't get the real thing at least we it is showing our fantasies.

Oh, Heat Miser isn't buying the GFS these days. But he WAS buying the GFS at the end of January when it showed the warmth he wanted!

[Ralph's Weather]

It kinda feels like the GFS right now is playing Madden and calling a hailmary every play. Its stat line is 17/55 for 555 yards 7 TDs and 7 Ints, so it sets records while getting blown out by the Euro who has ran for 450 and 8 TDs.

[Tireman4]

It kinda feels like the GFS right now is playing Madden and calling a hailmary every play. Its stat line is 17/55 for 555 yards 7 TDs and 7 Ints, so it sets records while getting blown out by the Euro who has ran for 450 and 8 TDs.

That is kinda of fun, ya think.

[Brent]

Heck take a few degrees off of yesterday and we could have gotten the thundersnowstorm they got up in OK and MO. We have been so close that maybe we can get a hailmary to connect at the end of the game or like last year in overtime.

My big problem with this winter right here!

[Ntxw]

Interesting since the GFS has been showing cold 7-10 and gets warmer within 5 days. Does that mean the warm forecasts have been bad? Lol

[Ralph's Weather]

It kinda feels like the GFS right now is playing Madden and calling a hailmary every play. Its stat line is 17/55 for 555 yards 7 TDs and 7 Ints, so it sets records while getting blown out by the Euro who has ran for 450 and 8 TDs.

That is kinda of fun, ya think.

Or maybe it is taking after Manziel, it makes you say holy crap it could be amazing then goes to rehab. Or maybe it is us that need rehab for being addicted to long range fantasy storms. On a serious note I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the awesome weather we have for the next few days because things are about to get cool and stormy for the weekend through next week.

[Ntxw]

Anyways I'm hoping for a mild spring, it's been awhile since we've had a decent start to finish growing season. Unfortunately signs do not point towards a mild spring usually those are associated with La Nina's. With most of the lingering cold pools on North America's side of the NHEM it may be a crawl.

[wxman57]

I think we have all noticed that the GFS has gone a bit cold crazy recently, but hey if we can't get the real thing at least we it is showing our fantasies.

Oh, Heat Miser isn't buying the GFS these days. But he WAS buying the GFS at the end of January when it showed the warmth he wanted!

I think that the days with mid 70s and low 80s seen in Houston in the last 2 weeks of January count as warmth. I was saying no significant or extreme cold through about the 29th of January back around the 14th, I believe. That certainly verified. There were no freezes in Houston the last half of January (or Dallas after the 16th).

I've been looking at the long-range pattern for any signs of a change. Until a couple days ago there were none. Now, all 3 major global models are weakening the Polar vortex over SE Canada by the end of February. While I don't buy individual model runs as far as surface temperatures, I think there are strong signs of a pattern change toward less (or no) rctic air intrusions coming beyond 10 days.

[dhweather]

It kinda feels like the GFS right now is playing Madden and calling a hailmary every play. Its stat line is 17/55 for 555 yards 7 TDs and 7 Ints, so it sets records while getting blown out by the Euro who has ran for 450 and 8 TDs.

BRAVO !!!!

[Texas Snowman]

I like the long-range pattern in the GFS. After a cold start to February (maybe a freeze here in Houston the first week of the month), things heat up over Canada and the Plains.

Just talking extreme cold in the above? Well, I guess I misread your statement then. I thought, you know, that things heating up over Canada and the Plains - to your standards, at least - would mean a veritable heat wave for the rest of us! Not just the mere absence of extreme cold.

And I guess technically, you were right in that statement. It only made it down to 33 this morning in Houston. On Feb. 18th, well after that pesky first week of the month. But hey, what's one degree among friends?

[dhweather]

Happy Happy Happy



Rockwall Lake Levels
As of February 17, 2015


Lake Lavon: 11.83 down
Lake Ray Hubbard:9.06 down
Lake Texoma:4.91 down
Lake Chapman:10.92 down
Lake Tawakoni: 11.46 down

[Brent]

AFTER A SPRINGLIKE START TO THE WEEKEND...WINTER RETURNS WITH A
FURY ON SUNDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY ACTUALLY HAPPEN IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE REMAINING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE 40S WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE VERY STRONG WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LACKING THROUGH 700MB. THERE IS
AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE HAVE CONTINUED VERY
LOW POPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET ACROSS ALL BUT CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUBFREEZING AT THE SURFACE. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE WAY OF
ANY IMPACTS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR
MUCH OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND AT
WORST A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS THE NORTH.