Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

If we can get the West Coast upper low to set up over So Cal instead of SF then we will be in good shape for moisture early next week as it is we will be in NW flow and stay pretty dry in the cold air.

[Ralph's Weather]

Both FWD and SHV are going with dry and warming for the end of next week. I guess they are discounting the GFS which is probably smart though I would be hard pressed to ignore the potential winter weather it has been showing during that time period.

[Brent]

Saturday keeps trending warmer too... it probably won't even be cold enough by the time Monday comes around.

When is there going to be some severe weather?

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS going with a historic winter storm for NE TX late next week showing a max of over 2.5 inches of precip over the Texarkana area with temps below freezing the whole time north of I-20.

[Brent]

LOL at the fantasy storm at day 8...

[Texas Snowman]

We'll see what happens next week.

Meanwhile, some fuel for thought, even if it's meaning is intended for points further north and east. May mean nothing for us at all, but perhaps the idea below would keep the chance for at least a few backdoor style cold fronts deep into next month.

Who knows, maybe some "March Madness" for someone in Texas.

From Larry Cosgrove (yesterday): "While I think the cold air will have its last gasp next month, I think that the rush to a -PNA alignment is premature, given the percolation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its constant "feeding" of the sub-Aleutian vortex. For now I will hold for the colder air sticking around until at least St. Patrick's Day or perhaps the equinox."

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Interesting tweet from Joe:

@BigJoeBastardi: JAMSTEC WITH MAJOR AMO CLIMATE BOMB! continues cold AMO AND destroys WATL warm pool PAC SST argues cold 15-16 winter! http://t.co/80ZfupY2p9/s/-haj

So we go from just wait 2 weeks out to now just screw it and wait an entire spring, summer , and fall then things will change

But back to reality land, the GFS looks just like a rinse and repeat it has been all month. Like wxman said models a week out were showing pretty extreme cold all over the south and actually week before that as well and we all see how well that verified. And after they bottomed out so to speak they warmed gradually day by day. Two nights of minimal freezes with one day in the 40's versus teens and lower 20's and highs barely above freezing the GFS and Canadian were showing. Fully expect to see the same once again come tomorrows runs.

[Brent]

Maybe the funniest map of the winter

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Only way that would be even funnier would be is if it covered the entire south with those pretty bright colors and was long range like 3 weeks out for early March

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the 18z GFS looks like the 2011 storm for North Texas, starts off as an ice storm, then 6 or so inches of snow get dumped on top. It's too bad the 18z GFS it the least accurate of the runs.

[Brent]

I did notice it's actually been consistent today at least with some wintry threat in the area... although the bulk in the earlier runs was north of us, but still, the actual storm is consistent and big.

[Tireman4]

I did notice it's actually been consistent today at least with some wintry threat in the area... although the bulk in the earlier runs was north of us, but still, the actual storm is consistent and big.

No mas. No mas. I quit. The GFS is just silly. Just crazy talk. Sigh. Going to run. Only sane thing left.
'

[Ralph's Weather]

My take away right now from the GFS is next week will stay cool with light showers then turn wintery for late week. Not a bad way to end the month. We will see what March brings, but the set up is similar to last winter with the PV over the lakes in Feb so I expect the first half of March to be cool.

[Brent]

Another thing about the 18z GFS(I agree that snow map is wayyyy ridiculous)

That warmth in early March went poof lol... temps 10-20 degrees below normal March 4th-6th No 80s this run for wxman57's meteogram!

[Brent]

How can this pattern get better?

[Ntxw]

How can this pattern get better?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... cp.new.gif

The AO is still raging positive. In pre-winter forecast the snow forecasts was based upon a -AO (myself included). This has been one of the epic busts of the index I have seen in recent times. Not only was it not negative the entire winter so far it has been raging positive. The EPO forecasts were correct and that did allow cold intrusions but snow ideas (long term) has a good correlation with the AO. 2009/10 had severe -AO alongside a favorable EPO, it doesn't promise cold like the EPO but it is better for snow chances. November was the only period of severe -AO, DJF had something like less than a week's worth of being negative.

[BigB0882]

And models kept insisting the AO would tank all winter but it never did. The models have really been awful lately.

[Brent]

0z GFS is much wetter on Monday:





and snow is breaking out over Texas at 186 hours, here we go with the late week storm again.



and finally the Day 8 fantasy result North trend has commenced

[TexasF6]

AFTER MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR MONDAY UP TO THE 00Z YESTERDAY RUNS...THE TREND REVERSED OVER THE PAST DAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MIN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING AND A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INTRODUCE SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE PATTERN ABOVE THE INVERSION IS STILL FAST AND ZONAL DURING THIS TIME...MEANING THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS IN FUTURE MODEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTIONS AND THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED.

[Portastorm]

AFTER MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR MONDAY UP TO THE 00Z YESTERDAY RUNS...THE TREND REVERSED OVER THE PAST DAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MIN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING AND A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING LAYER EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INTRODUCE SOME RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MONDAY. THE PATTERN ABOVE THE INVERSION IS STILL FAST AND ZONAL DURING THIS TIME...MEANING THERE WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS IN FUTURE MODEL SHORTWAVE DEPICTIONS AND THE AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED.

TexasF6 is quoting from EWX's morning AFD. It appears Lucy is queuing up for yet another "C'mon Charlie Brown, I promise to hold the football this time" on Monday.