Florida Weather

#9401 Postby **SFLcane** » Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:52 pm

Impressed models have remained rather consistent...

#9402 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:06 am

GFS 12Z...freeze for Central Florida again, away from the immediate coast:

Sanibel · #9403 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:33 pm

TWC now predicting 32* for Ft Myers Thursday night. Lowest since 2010 and reaching our lowest winter lows.

We shouldn't go below 34-35* here due to the Gulf. Still impressive.

84* predicted for Sunday, so a quick warm-up.

Bocadude85 · #9404 Postby **Bocadude85** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:39 pm

Temperatures always seem to be a degree or two warmer then predicted down here in South Florida during this cold snaps.

#9405 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:57 pm

the rebound will be as impressive as the cold snap itself. I am so ready for consistent warmth.

#9406 Postby **SFLcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:32 pm

asd123 · #9407 Postby **asd123** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:55 pm

SFLcane wrote::froze:

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20150 ... iami_9.png

Have to be logged into Weatherbell account to see image. Plus, you can use tinypic for free without an account to host images. We aren't allowed to hotlink.

Showing of Weatherbell images is allowed except for ECMWF non-WMO essential. It has to be for non-commercial purposes and credit has to be given to Weatherbell. They take this stuff very seriously.

#9408 Postby **SFLcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:01 pm

asd123 wrote:
SFLcane wrote::froze:

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20150 ... iami_9.png

Have to be logged into Weatherbell account to see image. Plus, you can use tinypic for free without an account to host images. We aren't allowed to hotlink.

Showing of Weatherbell images is allowed except for ECMWF non-WMO essential. It has to be for non-commercial purposes and credit has to be given to Weatherbell. They take this stuff very seriously.

Fixed...No Euro maps here just GFS and every now and then WMO essential. Fully aware of use thanks.

asd123 · #9409 Postby **asd123** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 2:12 pm

SFLcane wrote:
asd123 wrote:
SFLcane wrote::froze:

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20150 ... iami_9.png

Have to be logged into Weatherbell account to see image. Plus, you can use tinypic for free without an account to host images. We aren't allowed to hotlink.

Showing of Weatherbell images is allowed except for ECMWF non-WMO essential. It has to be for non-commercial purposes and credit has to be given to Weatherbell. They take this stuff very seriously.

Fixed...No Euro maps here just GFS and every now and then WMO essential. Fully aware of use thanks.

I also read on Ryan Maue's twitter page that we are not allowed to post UKMET. (check with Ryan or his twitter page to confirm. UKMET was recently added and maybe he forgot to add it to his disclaimer).

EDITED: UKMET is a relatively new model on Weatherbell. I think Ryan or Weatherbell forgot to add to their disclaimer as UKMET being off-limits for redistribution: disclaimer: http://models.weatherbell.com/ UKMET addition: https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/557057121422827520

FireRat · #9410 Postby **FireRat** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:02 pm

The trend in the forecast has been consistently colder for South Florida over the last 2 days, and it's not slowing down yet! The forecast high for tomorrow is 55 around my locale (weather bug), which is the coldest sunny forecast high I've seen since 2010. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 30s, at the very least.

Right now it's 62, with a bone dry dewpoint of 31. The big question will be, how low will the dewpoints go tonight and tomorrow night? If we get dewpoints below 30 degrees, we might get colder lows in the western suburbs than currently forecast. It feels very crisp outside, much cooler than our typical "62" normally feels, despite the sunshine. Dry cold is harsher IMO, gonna be a cold one tonight! :cold:

#9411 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:47 pm

NWS projected minimums for Thursday, Max for Thursday, and Minimums for Friday morning in that order. As I expected, the models keep trending colder!!!!! Even dipping down to the mid-upper 40s down in the Keys next two mornings. Now, folks that shows you how cold this arctic airmass is coming in for sure!

PANHANDLE

Pensacola 25 48 29
Crestview 19 48 19
Panama City 30 47 24

BIG BEND

Tallahassee 25 47 19
Apalachicola 29 49 27
Cross City 26 49 18

NORTH FLORIDA

Jacksonville 26 45 21
Gainesville 27 48 22
Ocala 28 49 21

WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

Tampa 39 53 31
Sarasota 42 54 32
Brooksville 31 49 22
St. Pete 45 52 40

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

Leesburg 34 49 28
Daytona Bch 33 49 28
Orlando 36 50 32
Melbourne 37 52 31
Vero Beach 39 55 33

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

W. Palm Bch 40 58 34
Ft. Lauderdale 46 59 41
Miami 47 61 42

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

Fort Myers 42 58 33
Naples 45 58 33

FLORIDA KEYS

Key West 49 62 47
Marathon 46 62 44

#9412 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:51 pm

W. Palm Bch 40 58 34

northjaxpro- are you sure that is 34F? I see 42F for West Palm for Thu. night:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... OUXmdg5BEY

#9413 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:53 pm

NWS Miami projecting 34 degrees for interior Palm Beach County Friday morning! That is not a mistype. :cold:

#9414 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:56 pm

Ah OK my point forecast was for downtown West Palm beach closer to the coast - big difference as expected between inland south Florida and coastal South Florida though some serious cold either way for all of us.

Also upper keys are not escaping the wrath of this arctic blast, with 41F forecasted for Islamorada! Yikes! :eek:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... OUX39g5BEY

#9415 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:59 pm

Looks as if the freeze line will have a chance to dip down all the way into the interior areas surrounding and to the west of Lake Okeechobee on Friday morning.

#9416 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:09 pm

Just to let you all know, the coldest reading I have measured at my locale all season to this point was 24.4 degrees back on November 20 during that record arctic spell we had at that time. It looks like on Friday morning that will be surpassed, as well as being another record low set for Jacksonville. I just checked the records and tomorrow's record low for the date here is 24 degrees, which we will get close to but probably not break, but it will be close.

Friday morning's record low at NWS Jax is 28 degrees, and we are forecast to get near 20 degrees on Friday morning currently. Also, there will potentially be record low maximums set in many areas as well for the next couple of days.

#9417 Postby **psyclone** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:40 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Looks as if the freeze line will have a chance to dip down all the way into the interior areas surrounding and to the west of Lake Okeechobee on Friday morning.

yes it will and those areas grow lots of winter vegetables that are tough to protect from freezes. my nws low is now down to 32.

#9418 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:49 pm

The GFS has been trying to freeze peninsula Florida all winter. It may finally get one right.

#9419 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS has been trying to freeze peninsula Florida all winter. It may finally get one right.

LOL. Yeah, you are right about that. But, hey the GFS got another big thing right here back on Jan 8, so I will always give it kudos just for that! 8-)

#9420 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:10 pm

A look at the 12Z ECMWF 2M temps showing freeze line. Note the pocket of 20s around Tampa:

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