Texas Winter 2014-2015

[WeatherNewbie]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/e9/Lucy_van_Pelt.png/220px-Lucy_van_Pelt.png

There is no way I would do this to you for the 60th straight time.

I saw snow falling from the sky at the beginning of this week (along with a decent portion of DFW), so technically her streak is broken.

[wxman57]

Latest snowfall map from Levi:

[BigB0882]

So close to SELA but always misses us. At least this season. If that would move just 150 miles south even. Not a big move but the cold does not like us this year.

[Wntrwthrguy]

What's with the snow barrier around Austin? It's barely just north and east.

[dhweather]

DFW local mets are talking up Monday's potential quite a bit this morning.

<Lucy cracks her knuckles>

Twice, at that.

[Portastorm]

What's with the snow barrier around Austin? It's barely just north and east.

You must be relatively new to Austin. It doesn't snow here.

[orangeblood]

DFW local mets are talking up Monday's potential quite a bit this morning.

<Lucy cracks her knuckles>

Twice, at that.

Lucy better be careful, she'll get her knuckles kicked if she's not careful...it's only a matter of time!!

[Wntrwthrguy]

What's with the snow barrier around Austin? It's barely just north and east.

You must be relatively new to Austin. It doesn't snow here.

Pretty much lived here my entire life. Just amazed (and mad) at how Houston and Brownsville have seen more snow than Austin in the past decade. Just grinds my gears.

[Portastorm]

What's with the snow barrier around Austin? It's barely just north and east.

You must be relatively new to Austin. It doesn't snow here.

Pretty much lived here my entire life. Just amazed (and mad) at how Houston and Brownsville have seen more snow than Austin in the past decade. Just grinds my gears.

You know I feel (and share) your frustrations. I keep thinking one of these winters we'll hit the jackpot as we are so "overdue" and then nothing happens. I'm sure Monday will turn out to be a cold rain event for us or maybe some light freezing drizzle at best. The depth of the cold air this far south won't be enough to support snow. Heck, I'd take a sleet storm over cold rain or freezing drizzle.

[wxman57]

Pretty much lived here my entire life. Just amazed (and mad) at how Houston and Brownsville have seen more snow than Austin in the past decade. Just grinds my gears.

There's a logical explanation for this. Typically, the issue is not the cold air but precipitation falling once the cold air moves in. The main source of moisture for snow in Texas is the Gulf of Mexico. Snow events in SE Texas generally require the development of a NW Gulf low - something to produce precipitation once the cold air is in place. These NW Gulf lows don't spread precip as far inland as Austin in most cases, so Austin misses out on the snow.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Pretty much lived here my entire life. Just amazed (and mad) at how Houston and Brownsville have seen more snow than Austin in the past decade. Just grinds my gears.

There's a logical explanation for this. Typically, the issue is not the cold air but precipitation falling once the cold air moves in. The main source of moisture for snow in Texas is the Gulf of Mexico. Snow events in SE Texas generally require the development of a NW Gulf low - something to produce precipitation once the cold air is in place. These NW Gulf lows don't spread precip as far inland as Austin in most cases, so Austin misses out on the snow.

Haven't most of Austin's snow events come from a low tracking across Austin from west Texas?

[Brent]

Is that Monday storm going to be snow or ice in DFW? Really blossomed on the GFS since yesterday

Wow, the meteograms are much colder too... go below freezing after the precip hits Monday morning and don't go above til Tuesday afternoon.

[wxman57]

Haven't most of Austin's snow events come from a low tracking across Austin from west Texas?

That would be a way to get snow apart from the NW Gulf low center - an upper-level low moving overhead. Such upper lows can provide enough lift in the sub-freezing air to produce some significant snow.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Haven't most of Austin's snow events come from a low tracking across Austin from west Texas?

That would be a way to get snow apart from the NW Gulf low center - an upper-level low moving overhead. Such upper lows can provide enough lift in the sub-freezing air to produce some significant snow.

Do you see anything that makes you think Austin has even a remote chance of seeing something more than a cold rain or freezing drizzle on Monday?

[orangeblood]

These models are going bonkers with the two systems next week...check out the 12Z Canadian. The crazy thing is they both have different solutions on when the 2nd system will eject across the southern plains but more or less, the same result....2 Major Winter Storms next week!!!

[Brent]

These models are going bonkers with the two systems next week...check out the 12Z Canadian. The crazy thing is they both have different solutions on when the 2nd system will eject across the southern plains but more or less, the same result....2 Major Winter Storms next week!!!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

Where can I cash in? lol

This will make up for all that stupid cold rain I sat through.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is what I came up with for my house from the 6Z GFS:

[wxman57]

Here are some 12Z GFS meteograms for D-FW & Houston. If I can make it through next week then things are looking up for March, temperature-wise. Looks like a quite cold day on Monday, though. Probably cold rain mixed with sleet in Houston Could it really snow (and accumulate) in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here's one if the best cat 5's we've had all winter

[wxman57]

I wonder if the Canadian model is good for anything? Perhaps it only does well in Canada? Yeah, I think 12-18" of snow for central TX looks about right...