Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Brent]

Could it really snow (and accumulate) in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I wonder if the Canadian model is good for anything? Perhaps it only does well in Canada? Yeah, I think 12-18" of snow for central TX looks about right...

Somehow I seriously doubt it. Only value I see in it is for entertainment. Love watching it try to destroy the US with some kind of storm regardless of the season.

[gboudx]

I wonder if the Canadian model is good for anything? Perhaps it only does well in Canada? Yeah, I think 12-18" of snow for central TX looks about right...

Somehow I seriously doubt it. Only value I see in it is for entertainment. Love watching it try to destroy the US with some kind of storm regardless of the season.

I'm pretty sure that's where the producers and writers got the Cat 10 snowcane idea for "Day After Tomorrow".

[TeamPlayersBlue]

These models sure do make things interesting/frustrating. Euro initializing now. Lets see what it says.

[Ntxw]

Slop mixture, IP storm anyone?

[iorange55]

Nothing is going to happen next week. Why? Because my brand new camera is supposed to arrive tomorrow. It's like washing your car before it rains.

I'll be taking high quality photos of birds flying in a cold rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is the 12Z GFS for my house:



By my estimate that shows 1-2 inches of sleet Monday.

[wxman57]

12Z EC coming in. It has about 2" between 6pm Sunday & 6pm Monday up in the D-FW area. The blue dots on the map are major cities. Note that the blue dot for Austin is free of that nasty snow.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It doesn't appear any of the weather sites or mobile apps are picking up on the possible winter weather for early next week?

[wxman57]

GFS has a warm nose over the D-FW area between 850mb (5000 ft) and 700mb (10,000 ft) on Monday. Warm nose increases Monday night. This would be more of a sleet event than snow if the GFS is correct (big IF).

[Ralph's Weather]

For fun here is yesterday's 18Z GFS:

[Ralph's Weather]

On my charts my quick precip type analysis is:
All lines below the 32 line equals snow.
Only orange and black below equals sleet.
Only black below equals freezing rain.

That is a decent estimate at least. Though how much a line is above or below freezing makes a difference along with the fact that this chart only shows three levels and there can always be warm noses in between those.

[wxman57]

Looking at the 12Z Euro, it's definitely showing that warm nose over NE TX on Monday. Below-freezing south to Waco Monday but at 5000-6000 ft up the temperature is in the 40s. Need to get rid of that warm nose for more snow. As it looks now, models suggest a big sleet event.

Here's a plot of the 925mb temps from the 12Z EC (top) and 800mb (lower). Well below freezing in the lower few thousand feet but well above higher up. If the precip originates above 5000 ft then it will start out as rain and freeze before reaching the ground (sleet).

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the 12Z Euro, it's definitely showing that warm nose over NE TX on Monday. Below-freezing south to Waco Monday but at 5000-6000 ft up the temperature is in the 40s. Need to get rid of that warm nose for more snow. As it looks now, models suggest a big sleet event.

Agreed, all models that I have seen today point to a big sleet event much like we saw in early March last year. Maybe we can see a repeat of the the thundersleet from that event.

[srainhoutx]

This is beginning to remind me of the March 2nd event of 2014.

[wxman57]

Here's a Euro snow plot for Friday. Trace of snow in the D-FW area. Euro is definitely warmer than the GFS for the late week event, and it's been more correct in that time frame with recent events.

[wxman57]

Interesting map of today's temperature anomalies across much of the globe. Guess where the coldest air (relative to normal is)...

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty much lived here my entire life. Just amazed (and mad) at how Houston and Brownsville have seen more snow than Austin in the past decade. Just grinds my gears.

You know I feel (and share) your frustrations. I keep thinking one of these winters we'll hit the jackpot as we are so "overdue" and then nothing happens. I'm sure Monday will turn out to be a cold rain event for us or maybe some light freezing drizzle at best. The depth of the cold air this far south won't be enough to support snow. Heck, I'd take a sleet storm over cold rain or freezing drizzle.

Yeah, I moved here in 2006. We had an ice storm in January 2007. It snowed in 2009, and it snowed up where I live a tad more than a dusting just last year, along with several ice days to where we missed work. It big-time snowed in San Antonio back in January 1985 where I lived, along with two other snow days in January of that year there. But Austin (and south central Texas) is majorly overdue for a good old-fashioned 1985ish type snowstorm!

[weatherdude1108]

I wonder if the Canadian model is good for anything? Perhaps it only does well in Canada? Yeah, I think 12-18" of snow for central TX looks about right...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_36.png

It CAN happen/has happened in the past (i.e., 1985). It was in January 1985, not February, but still...

[Portastorm]

I'm still highly skeptical of any wintry weather happening in or near Austin next week but I admit that the GFS and CMC are starting to nudge me a little bit. That being said, has anyone noticed the 850nb temp trend from the Euro (last few runs)? It suggests a very similar pattern to what occurred earlier this year when the coldest air (and wintry precip) occurred in west and northwest Texas as the coldest temps bisected the state (west-colder, east-warmer). That cold very well happen again with most of us along and east of I-35 and south of I-20 getting, once again, cold rain.