Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

I'm still highly skeptical of any wintry weather happening in or near Austin next week but I admit that the GFS and CMC are starting to nudge me a little bit. That being said, has anyone noticed the 850nb temp trend from the Euro (last few runs)? It suggests a very similar pattern to what occurred earlier this year when the coldest air (and wintry precip) occurred in west and northwest Texas as the coldest temps bisected the state (west-colder, east-warmer). That cold very well happen again with most of us along and east of I-35 and south of I-20 getting, once again, cold rain.

Try a can of this, Portastorm:

[Portastorm]

Oh, you're just a real comedian aren't you?!

Hey ... at least I'm not the one this time leading the Charlie Brown parade. I'm the guy in the back with a smirk on his face and arms folded across his chest.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow:

Oh, you're just a real comedian aren't you?!

Hey ... at least I'm not the one this time leading the Charlie Brown parade. I'm the guy in the back with a smirk on his face and arms folded across his chest.

Yeah, after all of his moaning and groaning about having to move earlier in the season when it looked a little bit ominous for warm weather bicycle enthusiasts, he's really been feeling his oats lately, hasn't he?

Hang in there Portastorm, old trustworthy Wxman 57 has his comeuppance coming one day. Maybe it's with this next week's weather!

[Texas Snowman]

From Fort Worth NWS' Facebook page, posted a few moments ago:

"Another surge of arctic air is expected to make it's way into North and Central Texas late this weekend, so considerably colder air will affect the area by Sunday afternoon. This upper level pattern has the potential to cause some wintry precipitation to fall over the region late this weekend and into the early part of next week as well. However, there are 3 key ingredients necessary for any wintry precipitation to develop: cold air, moisture, and lift. There is high confidence that cold air will reach the area, and confidence is moderate that enough moisture will be present over the area. However, forecast confidence is low on whether there will be enough lift to support any precipitation development over North and Central Texas late Sunday and into Monday morning. Continue to monitor the forecast for periodic updates as we assess new weather data."

[wxman57]

I don't see lift being the issue. I see cold air depth and a warm nose aloft as the issue when considering precip type. I made a skew-t diagram for the Houston area based on the 12Z GFS. Look at all that warm air aloft. That's not a snow profile. Cold rain with possibly some light freezing rain north of the city (Conroe/Huntsville) where surface temps could be colder.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't see lift being the issue. I see cold air depth and a warm nose aloft as the issue when considering precip type.

I guess FWD is still holding onto yesterday's runs which held most of the energy back for the late week event. It now looks like the early week storm will be fairly strong so as you said precip types are the concern.

[Texas Snowman]

Just reporting what FW NWS posted on Facebook. Went back and made sure it wasn't an old post. It wasn't, they posted it 18 minutes ago.

[Texas Snowman]

Here's the graphic they included for North Central Texas.

[JDawg512]

Pretty much lived here my entire life. Just amazed (and mad) at how Houston and Brownsville have seen more snow than Austin in the past decade. Just grinds my gears.

You know I feel (and share) your frustrations. I keep thinking one of these winters we'll hit the jackpot as we are so "overdue" and then nothing happens. I'm sure Monday will turn out to be a cold rain event for us or maybe some light freezing drizzle at best. The depth of the cold air this far south won't be enough to support snow. Heck, I'd take a sleet storm over cold rain or freezing drizzle.

Yeah, I moved here in 2006. We had an ice storm in January 2007. It snowed in 2009, and it snowed up where I live a tad more than a dusting just last year, along with several ice days to where we missed work. It big-time snowed in San Antonio back in January 1985 where I lived, along with two other snow days in January of that year there. But Austin (and south central Texas) is majorly overdue for a good old-fashioned 1985ish type snowstorm!

I remember the snow of 85. Austin got it as well though it was a little less than what SA got. Still it was a lot. I was just 5 years old but I remember playing and running around. Everything was covered In snow and it was pretty deep. My family made a snow man that was taller than my dad. That was the first and last time I saw that much snow here.

It also snowed the morning of Valentines Day 2004. I think that was about 2 inches. There was enough to make a snow man about 3 feet high.

[wxman57]

Here's a skew-T for the DFW area Monday evening. That little region of above-freezing air at the top of the precip column is an issue. The above-freezing air is 5000 ft thick.

[Portastorm]

Serious question for you wxman57. We all know how much models can (and do) change ... these skew-T's are based on model runs, are they not? Thus, they would be prone to changing as well depending on how the model depicts the atmosphere at that given moment, correct?

[Ralph's Weather]

This storm looks a lot like the early January one except that we have the PV to help keep eastern areas cold. This is shown on this skew-T for my place at the same time as wxman57's.



This looks like a classic sleet storm and at times it is very close to to being snow. Rarely are surface temps warmer than modeled with an Arctic front so the question as always is how strong will the warm nose be to determine snow vs sleet vs freezing rain.

[dhweather]

This storm looks a lot like the early January one except that we have the PV to help keep eastern areas cold. This is shown on this skew-T for my place at the same time as wxman57's.

http://i894.photobucket.com/albums/ac147/rbaker1987/GFS_2015-02-19-12Z_2015-02-24-0Z_skew-T_TwisterData_zpshgrvbjqx.png

This looks like a classic sleet storm and at times it is very close to to being snow. Rarely are surface temps warmer than modeled with an Arctic front so the question as always is how strong will the warm nose be to determine snow vs sleet vs freezing rain.

Looks very sleet like. Unless you don't have your glasses on and follow the -10 line by mistake. Oh, wait....

[Texas Snowman]

Yup, we'll see where this goes, but starting to remind me of the storms last winter that socked us pretty good with sleet here in the Red River Valley (in December 2013 and March 2014).

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Serious question for you wxman57. We all know how much models can (and do) change ... these skew-T's are based on model runs, are they not? Thus, they would be prone to changing as well depending on how the model depicts the atmosphere at that given moment, correct?

Yes, they're only as good as the model behind them. In this case, it's the GFS. Here's a plot for Austin valid Monday evening. Pretty close to the plot for Houston. You'd have to have quite a bit of cooling aloft to get any snow there, quite a bit... Waco's sounding looks pretty close to Austin's, too. I'm pretty sure that you're going to need that can of instant snow, Portastorm.

[wxman57]

From Ryan Maue - Euro vs. GFS verification. EC has outperformed the GFS. Euro is "warmer" for next week across Texas. That's good if you want to disbelieve the GFS' projected soundings, but bad because the GFS has trended to be too cold not too warm.

[Texas Snowman]

Perhaps things will indeed trend the way you're indicating over the next few days and Fort Worth will follow suit. But there's some pretty good pro mets at NWS too and maybe they're not taking the current model runs / skews at pure face value?

[weatherdude1108]

Good discussion by Hampshire.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 192044
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
244 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ENJOY THE SUN TODAY...BECAUSE WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF IT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES UNDER THE SUNSHINE. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
AXIS DEEPENS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SATURATE THE LOW-LEVEL COLUMN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE ESCARPMENT...PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING THIS WITH A BROAD PAINTING OF 0.01 TO
0.02 INCHES OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DECENT LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER TO SUPPORT LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. ANY DRIZZLE OR RAIN WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IF YOU
ARE NOT A FAN OF WINTER OR READY FOR SPRING TO STAY...YOU WILL NOT
LIKE THE REST OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
SYNOPTIC PATTER WILL LOOK LIKE THE FOLLOWING. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP OFF THE WESTERN CONUS
EXTENDING...WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. AT THE SAME TIME
A VERY STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS POSITIVE TILTED FROM NEAR ARIZONA...NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS WHAT WE TYPICALLY LOOK
FOR FOR THE STRONG ARCTIC INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR INTO TEXAS. THE
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

BY MONDAY MORNING...A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTH OF THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. 55
KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB AND 25 KNOTS AT 700 MB WILL
ENHANCE LIFT ON TOP OF THE COLD DOME OF ARCTIC AIR. MODELS ARE ALL
IN AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE.
MODELS SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER JUST OFF THE
SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE WARM NOSE TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SLEET CHANCE
SO THE MAIN BATTLE WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE WHETHER THE PRECIP IS
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. RIGHT NOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE FREEZING LINE TO BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO
KERRVILLE TO BURNET LINE MONDAY MORNING AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS
TO BOERNE TO JARRELL LINE TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS
TO THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN. LIQUID QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...SO ANY ICING
CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL AND ON ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FORECAST AS ANY DEVIATIONS IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OR RAIN AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

ALL PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A SLOW WARM
UP WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THURSDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER VERY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

HAMPSHIRE

[Ralph's Weather]

The 18Z NAM at 84 hours seems to have the West Coast low too far north for my liking. Hopefully the south trend of that low on the GFS is correct. It seems that if it stays over Nor Cal then we are out of luck for the first system as was shown yesterday, but if it can drop into Central Cal then we are in good shape in northern TX and if it can drop into So Cal then Central Texas can join in.

[wxman57]

Perhaps things will indeed trend the way you're indicating over the next few days and Fort Worth will follow suit. But there's some pretty good pro mets at NWS too and maybe they're not taking the current model runs / skews at pure face value?

I have no idea what they're thinking. We do know that the surface temperatures have tended to be a little colder than the models predicted with recent events, particularly as far as radiational cooling under a clear sky. Both the EC & GFS indicate widespread precip across Texas on Monday, so that doesn't appear to be the issue. The main issue may be the depth of the sub-freezing air.

PS: The San Antonio NWS office appears to echo my thinking. Snow isn't the issue with such warm temps aloft there. But if surface temps are a few degrees colder there could be a freezing rain issue.

PPS: The Fort Worth NWS office is also saying freezing rain/sleet may be a problem Monday (vs. snow).