Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

Understand, appreciate your answer.

Personally, I don't think it's just with radiational cooling that temps have trended to be a little bit colder. As I mentioned at the time, we had a couple of days a couple of weeks ago here in N/C Texas where model temperatures busted pretty good. Cloudy, cold days with temps remaining in the 30s.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Understand, appreciate your answer.

Personally, I don't think it's just with radiational cooling that temps have trended to be a little bit colder. As I mentioned at the time, we had a couple of days a couple of weeks ago here in N/C Texas where model temperatures busted pretty good. Cloudy, cold days with temps remaining in the 30s.

Yes, that is true. In this case, the models are indicating sub-freezing surface temps (at least for the D-FW area). It's the temperatures aloft that are an issue as far as snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

If the 12Z GFS is correct no cooling is needed as it has my temps in the 27F range for a daytime high on Monday. I would love for the cold to be just a bit deeper and allow for snow, but that does not appear likely. The 18Z GFS is rolling in so lets see what it shows.

[Brent]

Forecast updated

[wxman57]

I certainly agree on a "wintry mix" for the D-FW area. But will that mix include any snow?

[Ntxw]

there is the warm nose for DFW but there is room for margin of error. Its not as sharp for areas north of I-20. Central Texas will likely have a significant warm layer.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Despite all the models losing it, this arctic outbreak happening again this year is quite impressive. Curious the effect of the SAI on this winter. The pesky large GOA Low i gone and boom look what happens. Combo that with the warm water off the coast of CA and the cold is brutal in the NE. Imagine if it were January.

[aggiecutter]

I certainly wasn't expecting this:

Freezing Rain Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
349 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

.PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A GLAZE OF ICE ON TREES...POWER LINES...EXPOSED
SURFACES...AND AREA ROADWAYS INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
FRIDAY MORNING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ097-201500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.ZR.Y.0001.150220T0600Z-150220T1500Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...IDABEL
349 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS comes in colder but drier for Monday. It continues the weakening trend of the late week storm resulting in light upslope snow for NW TX and just flurries or sprinkles in northern TX.

[TheProfessor]

Still has 3 inches of what looks like sleet on Monday for North Texas, which is a pretty good amount. And lets not for get that the 18z is typically the worst GFS run, lets see what the 0z has in store.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Hope everyone enjoyed today…an extended period of cloudy cold weather will onset by Sunday and last much of next week.

Surface high moving eastward and a surface trough developing over west TX has allowed southerly winds to return to the region. Afternoon temperatures range from the upper 60’s around Matagorda Bay to the mid 50’s near the TX/LA state line. Warm air advection will increase tonight with a thick low level deck moving inland off the western Gulf of Mexico. Just enough lift is noted in the high resolution guidance to suggest a few passing showers or drizzle late tonight into much of Friday. Temperatures will warm into the 70’s on Friday with warm air advection even with extensive cloud cover.

Decent looking short wave will move across the area on Saturday with enough lift to likely generate a few showers and thunderstorms. Highs on Saturday will reach well into the 70’s…and this will be the warmest day by far of the next several. This system will more importantly usher in another strong arctic cold front on Sunday. Front will progress across the area during the day with temperatures falling from the 60’s and 70’s in the morning into the 40’s during the afternoon hours. Guidance is likely not handling this very cold shallow air mass very well and it is possible that temperatures could fall into the 30’s by Sunday evening. Troughing hangs back over the SW US keeping warm air riding up and over the surface cold dome into early next week for a soggy and cold forecast. Do not expect temperatures to make it out of the 40’s on Monday and would not be surprised to see some areas remain in the 30’s all day.

Critical time period is narrowing in on Monday night into Tuesday morning as near/sub freezing temperature line may push southward into the region especially if the models are under-forecasting the intensity of this cold air mass. Moisture and lift will likely be maintained into Monday night/Tuesday morning suggesting a potential for P-type concerns. Main concern area at the moment will be along and north of a line from College Station to Livingston. Forecast model profiles show a strong warm nose (pocket of above freezing air) a few thousand feet above the surface suggesting main P-type would be rain or possibly freezing rain where surface temperatures fall to freezing. GFS is much colder than the ECMWF model which keeps most of the area above freezing. For now will keep all precipitation liquid across the entire area, but watch temperature trends very closely over the weekend. If the ECMWF begins to trend toward the colder GFS solution then a very challenging forecast would be possible for early next week across SE TX.

[Tcu101]

From what the NWS FW is saying ...The cold and moisture will be there but will the large scale forcing be there?? All the stars have to align just right to get winter weather around these parts Definitely our best shot at something significant this close out

[Ralph's Weather]

Well guess I did not look closely enough looks like next week is really 3 waves. The runs that gave us the good late week storm had the upper low digging into Baja through the middle of the week before moving out. The latest runs are showing the West Coast low sending little pieces through the week but no strong system. With the recent solutions our best hope for winter precip after Monday will be for the shallow cold to hold on into the middle of the week though that would likely be just a freezing rain threat.
Always interesting to see what these wintertime West Coast upper lows will actually do.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: Still has 3 inches of what looks like sleet on Monday for North Texas, which is a pretty good amount. And lets not for get that the 18z is typically the worst GFS run, lets see what the 0z has in store.

That is based on a 10:1 ratio for snow which would be less than an inch of sleet at a 3:1 ratio. we nee the low to dig further into So Cal before shearing out or all we will get is a series of light forcing through the week.

[orangeblood]

The 18Z NAM at 84 hours seems to have the West Coast low too far north for my liking. Hopefully the south trend of that low on the GFS is correct. It seems that if it stays over Nor Cal then we are out of luck for the first system as was shown yesterday, but if it can drop into Central Cal then we are in good shape in northern TX and if it can drop into So Cal then Central Texas can join in.

If you look closely, the system west of Baja will be the weather maker on Monday, not the Cali system...it may influence it some but models have honed in on the Monday system for several runs now. It's the small short wave out in the east central Pacific currently that will provide the lift/moisture needed for Monday

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Despite all the models losing it, this arctic outbreak happening again this year is quite impressive. Curious the effect of the SAI on this winter. The pesky large GOA Low i gone and boom look what happens. Combo that with the warm water off the coast of CA and the cold is brutal in the NE. Imagine if it were January.

The GOA/Aleutian low is important. It can be a bad thing but it is also a necessity because it provides northern stream energy (polar jet) to dive south if there is blocking. Great snow years like the 70s, 2009/2010, 1895, the early 60s all featured a strong meandering Aleutian and GOA low. The difference that failed this year was the -AO or blocking near the pole/Greenland. Storms dove south from the GOA and were slowly sheared from the southwest never truly intensifying because there was no blocking upstream just fast flow.

Anyway if we can cash in next week all will be forgiven

[Tireman4]

I wanna believe. I do. I just do. The Wxman57 in me is a telling me this is all hooey

[Ptarmigan]

Despite all the models losing it, this arctic outbreak happening again this year is quite impressive. Curious the effect of the SAI on this winter. The pesky large GOA Low i gone and boom look what happens. Combo that with the warm water off the coast of CA and the cold is brutal in the NE. Imagine if it were January.

The GOA/Aleutian low is important. It can be a bad thing but it is also a necessity because it provides northern stream energy (polar jet) to dive south if there is blocking. Great snow years like the 70s, 2009/2010, 1895, the early 60s all featured a strong meandering Aleutian and GOA low. The difference that failed this year was the -AO or blocking near the pole/Greenland. Storms dove south from the GOA and were slowly sheared from the southwest never truly intensifying because there was no blocking upstream just fast flow.

Anyway if we can cash in next week all will be forgiven

I used this link.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... 0thc.v2.pl

I looked at February 1895. There is troughing over Gulf of Alaska, which suggest a positive East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). However, there is strong ridging over Greenland, which is negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is ridging over California and Eastern Russia. Ridging over Eastern Russia is West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). WPO can give freezes.

December 1983 and February 1989 had strong negative EPO and strong positive NAO. They also occurred in La Nina, which also was the case with February 1895.

[dhweather]

I just stopped in to say Hello.