Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Brent]

Nice heavier band lol

[Ralph's Weather]

Nice heavier band lol

Wish these snow maps actually showed just snow. I have seen nothing to indicate that the I-20 will see anything but rain changing to sleet. So we are looking at 3:1 not the 10:1 these maps show.

[Brent]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDAL

Still trending colder... and Tue/Wed is colder this run too

Yeah its hard to tell precip type on those maps... but it is much wetter than the 18z is the overall thing. Over .60" that I see.

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Cosgrove posted this on his Facebook page earlier:

"3) Notice that stronger vertical velocities remain from Arkansas back into Kansas and Colorado. Risks for freezing precipitation and snow will continue even after the front sags down into Texas, as a new upper air disturbance edges out of the Rocky Mountains.

4) Two components in the eastern Pacific Ocean will set up a larger storm threat during the middle and later portion of next week. In general, the ECMWF series seems to have a handle on the situation, though I feel that risks for ice and snow are increasing for Texas and Oklahoma through the Old South and then the Eastern Seaboard. With the continued cold weather (see the persistent ridging in Alaska....), that system could be a serious weather problem for those who have seen only one major snowfall event so far this winter."

[Ralph's Weather]

Next week could very well feature multiple winter storms with Monday just being a light warm-up before something more significant later in the week. It may actually turn out like the GFS showed a couple days ago.

[Brent]

The GFS has a weak wave on Wednesday with some hints of frozen precip on the northern edge... then theres potential for a huge storm in the Thu/Fri/Sat timeframe... it hasn't been consistent with when the storms are... but it has been consistent with storms... so it looks active... and cold...

oh and the 0z GFS cancelled spring at 300 hours too. Barely gets into the 60s and then more cold

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
404 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...

WINTRY MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HUDSON BAY UPPER VORTEX THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY. AN UPPER LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES WESTWARD INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND THEN MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
WILL BECOME DETACHED FROM THE UPPER THOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LINGER OVER WESTERN NEVADA FOR A DAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS TAKING
PLACE IN THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER TODAY...THEN
NORTHEAST TOWARD OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE MASS OF ARCTIC AIR
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN BUT DISAGREE ON SURFACE
FEATURES. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE...SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...AND MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE ARCTIC AIR AFTERWARD. THE GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP
THE SURFACE LOW...BUT INSTEAD KEEPS THE COLD AIR FILTERING DOWN
INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK.

RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
TODAY. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE
SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY SEEMS TO
BE THE BEST TIME FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX AND AREAS
TO THE NORTH. FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD...FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BE THE MORE PREDOMINANT CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION.
RIGHT NOW...AREAS NORTHWEST OF A EASTLAND TO DFW TO BONHAM LINE
COULD SEE TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD DEVELOP INTO SOMETIME MORE
SERIOUS IF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION SHOULD INCREASE DUE TO MORE
LIFT OR MORE INSTABILITY ALOFT. RIGHT NOW IT IS ONLY MEETING OUR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNT OF ICE ON THE ROADWAYS
MONDAY MORNING WOULD BE A BAD THING. 75

[dhweather]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-202230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
421 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT IN LIQUID
FORM...HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. WHEREVER TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS EVENT...COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO DALLAS TO BONHAM ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WHILE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FREEZING LINE IS SOMEWHAT
LOW AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ICE AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD CAUSE TRAVEL AND POWER PROBLEMS
AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING IF TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH. AS A
RESULT...THIS WINTER STORM OUTLOOK IS BEING ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL AND POWER DISRUPTIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

CHECK THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS SLIGHTLY WARMER OR
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE IMPACTS OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

CAVANAUGH

[dhweather]

The 6Z GFS has lost its mind. A train of cold coming for the next 10 days.

[Portastorm]

The 6Z GFS has lost its mind. A train of cold coming for the next 10 days.

Not only the GFS ... the 0z Euro dumps the mother lode of Arctic air into Texas by next weekend.

[dhweather]

The 6Z GFS has lost its mind. A train of cold coming for the next 10 days.

Not only the GFS ... the 0z Euro dumps the mother lode of Arctic air into Texas by next weekend.

But if it were calling for 90's all next week, it would be right, eh 57 ??

[Portastorm]

We know that we have been teased unmercifully by Lucy and her computer models this winter, but you gotta say that the pattern the next 7-10 days is ripe with possibility. I'm fairly confident that you Metroplexers are going to get a dosage of wintry weather before March marches in.

[Wntrwthrguy]

We know that we have been teased unmercifully by Lucy and her computer models this winter, but you gotta say that the pattern the next 7-10 days is ripe with possibility. I'm fairly confident that you Metroplexers are you to get a dosage of wintry weather before March marches in.

Should us Austinites have any hope in seeing anything over the next week?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not saying they are right when showing warm or wrong when showing cold, saying that they have been showing cold all winter and has never come to fruition. Been persistently showing major pattern change all winter and nothing. Last three weeks are prime examples. Gfs, cmc, and euro to an extent were supposedly giving us the coldest temps even record.breaking of the winter thus far. Had two nights of minimal freezes to show for it. So yeah why believe it will suddenly come true now because they say so. And fwiw the useless cmc lost its cat 6 winter superstorm over night. Imagine that.

[Portastorm]

We know that we have been teased unmercifully by Lucy and her computer models this winter, but you gotta say that the pattern the next 7-10 days is ripe with possibility. I'm fairly confident that you Metroplexers are you to get a dosage of wintry weather before March marches in.

Should us Austinites have any hope in seeing anything over the next week?

Sure! I wouldn't rule it out at all but I think at this time that we may end up, as before, a bit too warm. All of the models keep the wintry precip just to our northwest/north. But even as wxman57 said yesterday, if the models are a few degrees too warm it's a different ballgame. The morning AFD from EWX had some crucial information in that for us, the air column will be nearly saturated for early next week. That prohibits any wet-bulb cooling potential so whatever cold air we get will come from the airmass change. If temps are above freezing Monday morning, you'll know that we will only get a cold rain. As for next weekend's event ... heh, who knows.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any mind losing in the 6Z GFS meteograms below, only a low of 28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth and a light freeze in Houston. The 00Z Euro is a few degrees colder at 23-26 in the D-FW area and 28-29 across Houston. With any luck, that will be the end of winter.

By the end of the run, the Euro still moves the Polar vortex out of the picture, replaced by a split-flow pattern with the jet stream screaming across the southern U.S. That should be good for increasing rainfall across the south.

[orangeblood]

We know that we have been teased unmercifully by Lucy and her computer models this winter, but you gotta say that the pattern the next 7-10 days is ripe with possibility. I'm fairly confident that you Metroplexers are you to get a dosage of wintry weather before March marches in.

'Ripe' is an understatement....best setup I've seen in 4 years for multiple southern plains winter weather threats over a 7-8 day period. Euro Mean (51 Members) ranges from an inch in Austin up to 5 inches around the Red River over the next 8 days - that's just a mean, some members are double those numbers. Multiple sub-freezing high days on the table for DFW next week as well.

[wxman57]

Here's a screenshot of the 00Z Euro's coldest temps across Texas next Sunday. Mid 20s AUS/SAT, low-mid 20s DFW, upper 20s Houston area. The "mother of all Arctic airmasses"? Hardly, maybe a third cousin...

[orangeblood]

I'm not seeing any mind losing in the 6Z GFS meteograms below, only a low of 28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth and a light freeze in Houston. The 00Z Euro is a few degrees colder at 23-26 in the D-FW area and 28-29 across Houston. With any luck, that will be the end of winter.

By the end of the run, the Euro still moves the Polar vortex out of the picture, replaced by a split-flow pattern with the jet stream screaming across the southern U.S. That should be good for increasing rainfall across the south.

hahaha, so 20-25 deg F below normal for a 8 DAY stretch isn't losing it's mind ? The Negative EPO is showing signs of tanking once again, your hopes of the end of winter anytime soon are fading my friend...us cold mongers just might catch this hail mary to send it into overtime!

[Ntxw]

FW needs to start considering putting up winter storm watches soon for North Texas. Warm nose is looking less impressive each run and up to half in liquid equivalent with temps dropping to upper 20s, that could be a high impact event Sunday night into Monday and light icing possible Tuesday.