2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

95W THREAD

Hyperlink.

Now an invest on Pre-Bavi.

[euro6208]

Josh Morgerman

[euro6208]

Typhoon Higos Makes History in NW Pacific

With an unexpected burst of intensification on Monday, Typhoon Higos became the strongest tropical cyclone on record for so early in the year in the Northern Hemisphere. The compact typhoon dissipated quickly after its show of strength, having spun out its short life over an empty stretch of the Northwest Pacific roughly midway between the Marshall Islands and Northern Mariana Islands. The official peak intensity of Higos, as recorded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) was 105 kts (120 mph) at 0600 GMT on February 10, making it a Category 3. Satellite imagery suggests that Higos may have briefly spiked at Category 4 strength, with an outside chance of Category 5 strength, so the storm’s peak winds could be revised in later analyses. Two NASA satellites were in place to estimate rainfall rates below Higos.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2914

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Historic season so far. I really wonder what the rest of the season will deliver to us. The intensities of the storms so far are drastically different, and are opposite compared to the weak 2013 typhoon season.

From my edit on Wikipedia:

The first two months of the season were unusually active and intense. Typhoon Mekkhala on January became the strongest typhoon occurring on that month since 1988, as well as being the strongest storm to impact the Visayas on January. The typhoon had affected the Pope's recent visit to the Philippines, mostly because of a decision to depart back to Manila from Tacloban four hours ahead of schedule. Less than a month later, Typhoon Higos had become the easternmost forming Pacific typhoon as well as being among the strongest February typhoons of record. Despite its intensity, Higos did not cause any significant effects over the landmasses and islands on the West Pacific.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mekkhala now downgraded to STS after JMA's post-analysis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Mekkhala_(2015)

[euro6208]

Models hinting of no development until at least the second week of March despite a strong convectively enhanced phrase of the Kelvin wave and MJO passing through...

I have a gut feeling we might see BAVI in the last half of March...

[euro6208]

2015 WPAC season to date....

Winds in knots, pressure in millibars, category is based on Saffir-Simpson scale.
# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Typhoon-1 MEKKHALA 13-18 JAN 70 1
*2 Typhoon-3 HIGOS 07-11 FEB 105 3


ACE: 11.1575 , Normal YTD is 2, that's 557% year to date

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

* Higos will be upgraded to Category 4 post season...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Higos was recently upgraded to a category 4 by the JTWC. Source is JTWC/NOAA site [115 kts; 937 mb]

[euro6208]

The NWS of the region has updated their imagery sectors. It's all in one with imageries of other basins, more convenient, and more capability. Exciting as we head deeper into the season...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/

[euro6208]

GFS past 4 runs hinting on Tropical storm Bavi southeast of Guam. Kinda long range and stays it weak and whatever is left of this should bring beneficial rain to the Marianas...

According to NWS, Guam experienced the 2nd driest February on record in more than 50 years. We did not get rain in 12 days straight...Rain totals were only 0.07 inches is just 1.96 percent of normal...

[Ntxw]

WWB coming west of the dateline, the last one brought us significant Typhoons. Look for the models to trend more active in the WPAC within the next two weeks.

[euro6208]

Indeed...All models (ECMWF,GFS,JMA,CMC,NAVGEM) wants to develop Bavi at an extremely low latitude near the Dateline...

GFS is the most robust with quite a powerful typhoon so near the equator! It also has an outrageous track, an eastward moving tropical cyclone that starts to recurve and eventually making a beeline for the Marianas...

JMA



NAVGEM



CMC




ECMWF



GFS

[euro6208]

Echoing what others have said, that is a very significant WWB about to commence...This will trigger simultaneous tropical cyclones in both the WPAC and the Australian/SPAC region as depicted in the models...Good thing it is only March, the WPAC would go bonkers...

[euro6208]

Models aren't quite bullish on the next system from earlier...

CMC crosses Bavi briefly into the CPAC as a possible typhoon but recurves back into the WPAC where it slowly weakens...

NAVGEM doesn't do much with it peaks as a tropical storm and weakens...

EURO is still very conservative...

GFS develops three circulations but the most promising, the first, gradually develops into Bavi southeast of Guam...

[euro6208]

Bavi will just be a weakling of a storm

EURO and GFS barely develops...

Climatologically February and March is the slowest months in the WPAC...so no surprise...

Typhoon Higos last month was a freak...

[euro6208]

According to NWS, Guam experienced the 2nd driest February on record in more than 50 years.

Well it is now officially the driest February on record in Guam's history thanks to this recently declared el nino...

El nino conditions already running rampant over here with NWS issuing Fire Weather Watch and also dry throughout the Marianas...

El nino's affect the entire West Pacific and Australia so I would like to ask, what are your current conditions for the members based here?

[euro6208]

Woah look at that...

Almost off the charts.

[euro6208]

With a el nino on the way, we would expect:

1. A very high number of super typhoons

2. An early start of WNP TC activity with a higher than average number during the early season (01 January to 15 July)

3. A tendency -- especially during the first half of the year -- for the TC tracks to be north oriented

4. A substantial eastward displacement of the mean genesis location for all TCs and for many of the individual TCs

5. Have some dateline crossers from the CPAC

6. Many developing in the monsoon trough at low latitutes

6. The Marianas including the surrounding islands of Micronesia are at huge risk!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Doubt it would bring those effects. Getting TOO bullish euro, that you are changing actual facts. Mild EL NINO events do not bring that much effects globally and in cyclone activity. Like 2009, EPAC had only 8 hurricanes... WPAC only had 22 storms and it was a globally low quality year. Quite too excited.

[euro6208]

Euro still showing a tropical storm while GFS is showing two tropical cyclones, one striking northern mindanao..