Texas Winter 2014-2015
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
The NWS Southern Region's guidance to its WFOs is that Winter Storm Watches are generally issued 24 to 36 hours prior to the onset of an event with an occasional watch being allowed to be issued 48 hours in advance.
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Looking at other models and they are not quite as cold especially for NE TX. At noon the GFS shows 28 for Tyler, the NAM shows 33, GGEM shows 30 and the SREF is similar to the GFS. All show slowly falling temps for the afternoon. The GFS gives us about .25 QPF for the 24 hours ending at 6PM Monday, the NAM is around .1, the GGEM is around .75 and the SREF is around .4. Looking at all of that I would say I am looking at around .15-.35 inches of QPF while below freezing with daytime temps Monday in the 27-31 range. Except for the NAM all show a significant winter storm and with it being the NAM I don't feel much hesitation tossing its solution out.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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If the highs would crash down like last year, i think we would all be happy campers.
Going to be close here in SE Tx too not getting too excited about it though.
Going to be close here in SE Tx too not getting too excited about it though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
This is the first storm I feel confident about this year. I just hope we can bring down those temps above to mix in some snow. Although, with us being down 10 in the 4th quarter, I'd gladly take a decent sleet storm.
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- TheProfessor
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Another great post by Hampshire!
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201615
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY JUST TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
Just teasing.
Just thought I'd be cheesy. Kidding aside, I am seriously glad this office has him.
TGIF!!
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201615
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY JUST TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
Just teasing.


Just thought I'd be cheesy. Kidding aside, I am seriously glad this office has him.

TGIF!!

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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
12z GFS also has a snowstorm next Friday.
It's only 7 days out yall!

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#neversummer
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Re:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If the highs would crash down like last year, i think we would all be happy campers.
Going to be close here in SE Tx too not getting too excited about it though.
The problem with crashing highs is that it brings down dry air. This set up keeps it plenty cold especially for north Texas and allows for storms to under cut it.
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- SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Central tx folks may need to keep a close eye on what the SREF is on to.
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Graphics please.
Brent wrote:12z GFS also has a snowstorm next Friday.It's only 7 days out yall!
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
SouthernMet wrote:Central tx folks may need to keep a close eye on what the SREF is on to.
Yep ... I posted about that earlier today. The "wintry" precip may end up closer to central/south central/southeast Texas than what many of us were thinking going into today. I'm just not sure how accurate the SREF is, generally speaking.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
12Z GFS total snowfall over the next 7 days.....notice I said 7 days, not 15!!


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Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??
If that GFS map came close to verifying, Tarrant and Dallas Counties are going to finally get their moneys worth from their Snow Plow purchase a few years ago, following the Super Bowl Debacle!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
and I see 16 at DFW on the 2m temps on March 6th... I thought 90s were coming! 
Oh yeah... what I'd give for that snow map to verify.

Oh yeah... what I'd give for that snow map to verify.

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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
This storm looks like the real deal for DFW. Time to split some firewood.
After checking some FL records for this morning. Key West 49F, KMIA 42F, Jackonsville Airport 24F. Brutal.
After checking some FL records for this morning. Key West 49F, KMIA 42F, Jackonsville Airport 24F. Brutal.
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- Texas Snowman
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??
Are you saying for the fourth quarter come-from-behind win?

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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Texas Snowman
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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