Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5081 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:12 am

My Warm nose has really shrunk during the main precip time on Monday, If the models are over doing the warm nose, Perhaps a significant snow storm for folks north of I-30 and along and west of I-35?

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5082 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 3:02 am

Has anyone checked the meteogram yet off the 0z GFS? Dallas doesn't see 50 again at 2m's after tomorrow night for the rest of the 16 days...

and there's another winter storm in fantasy land

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW

:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5083 Postby TexasF6 » Sat Feb 21, 2015 4:33 am

Euro run gives AUSTIN 1-.5 inches of snowfall through 108hours. Personally, I liked the previous run, which gives us 3-4 inches for the total storms thru the week. The trend is our friend. GFS has been inching towards us allll week, but still hates Austin. I believe the Euro. And Joe B. And most of all, Porta!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :froze: :flag:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5084 Postby TexasF6 » Sat Feb 21, 2015 4:46 am

THE CRAZY CANADIAN PAINTS SNOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS>>> It HATED us alllll week this week!!! #TheTrendIsMyFriendAustin :froze: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5085 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:12 am

What an AFD wow

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW NORTH OF BOWIE WITH A WARM FRONT
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST-SOUTH TO SOUTH OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO AT 08Z. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND OPEN THE GATE FOR THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SPILL SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWS THE POLAR JET DIPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND RUNNING EASTWARD ALONG 37 DEGREES LATITUDE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THEN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
TIME AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RENO AREA AND SEND SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHILE THE COLD AIR IS IN
PLACE AND DEEPENS. FIRST ONE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
SECOND ON MONDAY MORNING.

WE/VE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WATCH SOUTHEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF COUNTIES TO A LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE
BUT DID NOT EXTEND
IT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR
THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN A LATER FORECAST.

TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BY THIS
EVENING....THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND
SUB-FREEZING AIR COULD REACH A KILLEEN TO ATHENS LINE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
RAMP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOME MID-LEVEL LIFT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
MIX AT THIS TIME. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST 1/2. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH OF MONDAY
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL...THUS ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AND ELSEWHERE
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. WITH PWATS AVERAGING 3/4
TO 1 INCH...AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE ENHANCED OR CONVECTIVE BANDING OCCURS. THE BEST
JUXAPOSITION OF LIFT...MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FOR ENHANCED SLEET
FALL SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO SHERMAN
LINE MONDAY MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE IN TRAVEL IMPACTS ON MONDAY
MORNING CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND MUNICIPALITIES SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDILY FOR ROAD SANDING/SALTING OPERATIONS TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WE LOWERED POPS AND MOVED THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. LOWS WILL BE THE 20S THUS ANY
LIQUID WATER WILL REFREEZE AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF IN THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 40S.

IT WILL BE COLD AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...
LOWERING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH. DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. IF
THE SNOW DOES INDEED DEVELOP...THEN AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS EVENT IS A LONG WAYS OUT
AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH NEW MODEL DATA. 75
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#5086 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:43 am

Not seeing much of anything new on the 06Z GFS. Still looks like a general .5"+ sleet storm with some snow mixing in west of I-35 and some freezing rain in East Texas and on the southern edge of frozen precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5087 Postby wxman57 » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:16 am

The 6Z GFS has a significantly warmer "warm nose" over Dallas Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening than previous runs, up to about 41F between 4000-9000 ft. Sub-freezing below there. However at 6am Monday, the warm nose is at its smallest, only abut 34-35F overhead. Still looks like a significant sleet event, but there is a possibility for some snowflakes around sunrise Monday and as the precip ends Tuesday night.

For Austin, the sub-freezing air is predicted to be VERY shallow and at the surface Monday morning. Looks like precip would start as rain Sunday evening and transition to freezing rain Monday morning then back to rain Monday afternoon as surface temps climb above freezing. I don't know if the cold air layer is deep enough to form sleet.
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#5088 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:20 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARM MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE.
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...MORE WINDY CONDITIONS PERSISTED WHERE THE
PGF WAS GREATER DUE TO A SFC LOW PASSING ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. IR SATELLITE SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK QUITE WELL
SPANNING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PLAY PART IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MONDAYS WINTER WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE.


AT THE SURFACE...NORTH WINDS WERE OBSERVED SPANNING FROM THE I20
CORRIDOR IN WEST TEXAS TO THE RED RIVER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY AND PASS THROUGH KSAT BY 21-00Z.
WHILE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE AIR MASS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LAG
THE WIND SHIFT BY 12-18 HOURS. MODELS DEPICT THIS FRONT TO STALL
AROUND THE LATITUDE OF SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY WITHOUT MUCH MOVEMENT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 20+ DEGREE TEMPERATURE DISCREPANCY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND 70+ SOUTH.


CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL AS
STRONG OVERRUNNING SETS UP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE NEXT 48 HOURS RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY
STRONG WARMING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOWS
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA BORDER. IT ACTUALLY ISNT UNTIL AFTER
12Z...THE USUAL MIN T TIME...THAT THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO
ARRIVE. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO FOCUS ON A 12Z TO
18Z TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP MONDAY.

REGARDING THIS TIME PERIOD...CLOSE EXAMINATION OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE NAM/GFS/EURO INDICATED SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS
WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FORECAST COMPLICATED. HOWEVER...ALL
THREE AGREE ON BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER 12Z
AND A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN RESULTING. PREVIOUS THINKING OF
SLEET NO LONGER SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO ALL THREE MODELS AGREEING ON A
10+ DEG C WARM LAYER AND A VERY DEEP ONE AT THAT. IT DOESNT APPEAR
LIKELY AT ALL THAT ANY ICE WILL BE ABLE TO EXIST IN THE WARM
LAYER. THUS...FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY LOGICAL WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBLE.
EXPECTED QPF VALUES CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AS THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM OVER OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE ISENTROPIC
LIFTING.

AREAS TO THE NORTH COULD SEE A MODERATE SHOWER HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS LLJ CONVERGENCE MAY ENHANCE RAIN RATES
BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH. THEREFORE QPF VALUES ARE A BIT
HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OF CONCERN. WITH HIGHS HOPEFULLY
REACHING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 18Z...THIS 12-18Z TIME FRAME
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SHOT AT ICE ACCUM. GROUNDS SHOULD STILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO HINDER MUCH TRAVEL IMPACTS BUT THE TYPICAL FIRST
IMPACTS OF BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...TREES...AND EXPOSED SURFACES MAY
SEE ICING OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THIS AREA OF CONCERN
SPANS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS...TO MEDINA...TO
BLANCO...TO MARBLE FALLS...TO LIBERTY HILL.

AFTER 18Z...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY BUT NOT MUCH.
HOPEFULLY ENOUGH TO TRANSITION BACK TO AN ALL LIQUID RAIN
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE FACTORS SUCH AS CAA
STRENGTH...POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO BELOW
FREEZING WITH A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE. IN FACT...LOWS SHOULD FALL
TO THE UPPER 20S IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ON THE
PLATEAU. THE FREEZING LINE MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NEW
BRAUNFELS RESULTING IN ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. POP CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT THOUGH SO WHILE THE I35 CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ONLY
EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING POTENTIAL SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT TO TRAVEL
CURRENTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING TUESDAY
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT
EAST AS WELL BY MID DAY. OUR NEXT BEST SHOT AT PRECIP WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WINTRY PRECIP...BUT SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXISTS
SO
WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

TB3
&&
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5089 Postby opticsguy » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:24 am

DFW local media are trying to avoid a panic. I had to search out firelogs at Lowe's yesterday, though the employee there said they were moving them to the front door Saturday (where they will sell out quickly).

My wife is still going to drive into work Monday (UTSW medical school) no matter what. I told her to bring a change of clothes because she can probably make it downtown, but won't be able to get out. The QPF on the NAM looks higher than the December storm of last winter. This is the real deal. Even if it's only .25" of ice, the wind will be blowing 10-15 kt.

Not an official forecast.
Last edited by opticsguy on Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5090 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:32 am

:uarrow: Fort Worth NWS seems to think so:

ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW NORTH OF BOWIE WITH A WARM FRONT
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST-SOUTH TO SOUTH OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO AT 08Z. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND OPEN THE GATE FOR THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SPILL SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWS THE POLAR JET DIPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND RUNNING EASTWARD ALONG 37 DEGREES LATITUDE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THEN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH
TIME AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RENO AREA AND SEND SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHILE THE COLD AIR IS IN
PLACE AND DEEPENS. FIRST ONE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
SECOND ON MONDAY MORNING.

WE/VE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WATCH SOUTHEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF COUNTIES TO A LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE BUT DID NOT EXTEND
IT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR
THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN A LATER FORECAST.

TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BY THIS
EVENING....THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND
SUB-FREEZING AIR COULD REACH A KILLEEN TO ATHENS LINE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
RAMP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOME MID-LEVEL LIFT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
MIX AT THIS TIME. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST 1/2. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH OF MONDAY
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL...THUS ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND ELSEWHERE
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE. WITH PWATS AVERAGING 3/4
TO 1 INCH...AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS WHERE ENHANCED OR CONVECTIVE BANDING OCCURS. THE BEST
JUXAPOSITION OF LIFT...MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FOR ENHANCED SLEET
FALL SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO SHERMAN
LINE MONDAY MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE IN TRAVEL IMPACTS ON MONDAY
MORNING CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND MUNICIPALITIES SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDILY FOR ROAD SANDING/SALTING OPERATIONS TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WE LOWERED POPS AND MOVED THE PRECIPITATION
AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD. LOWS WILL BE THE 20S THUS ANY
LIQUID WATER WILL REFREEZE AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF IN THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 40S.

IT WILL BE COLD AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...
LOWERING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH. DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. IF
THE SNOW DOES INDEED DEVELOP...THEN AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT IS A LONG WAYS OUT
AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH NEW MODEL DATA. 75
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5091 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:42 am

wxman57 wrote:The 6Z GFS has a significantly warmer "warm nose" over Dallas Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening than previous runs, up to about 41F between 4000-9000 ft. Sub-freezing below there. However at 6am Monday, the warm nose is at its smallest, only abut 34-35F overhead. Still looks like a significant sleet event, but there is a possibility for some snowflakes around sunrise Monday and as the precip ends Tuesday night.

For Austin, the sub-freezing air is predicted to be VERY shallow and at the surface Monday morning. Looks like precip would start as rain Sunday evening and transition to freezing rain Monday morning then back to rain Monday afternoon as surface temps climb above freezing. I don't know if the cold air layer is deep enough to form sleet.


Yep. Your thoughts pretty much mirror what EWX is thinking at this time. Seems reasonable given what the models are showing. The SREF runs are still colder at the surface than globals but QPF for the Austin area appears light. For now I think EWX has a good handle on our forecast.
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#5092 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:54 am

9 members and 47 guests. Not bad for a Saturday morning. Normally we are at single digits this time of day. I think a storm is coming. :D
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#5093 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:59 am

Snow cover is helping these HP's hold their strength too. A couple degrees lower and Houston will have an interesting time early next week.
Last edited by TeamPlayersBlue on Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#5094 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:06 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Snow cover is helping these HP's hold their strength too. A couple degrees loer and Houston will have an interesting time early next week.

And I will submit that DFW high temps busted low by 5 degrees just about every day this week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5095 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:35 am

opticsguy wrote:DFW local media are trying to avoid a panic. I had to search out firelogs at Lowe's yesterday, though the employee there said they were moving them to the front door Saturday (where they will sell out quickly).

My wife is still going to drive into work Monday (UTSW medical school) no matter what. I told her to bring a change of clothes because she can probably make it downtown, but won't be able to get out. The QPF on the NAM looks higher than the December storm of last winter. This is the real deal. Even if it's only .25" of ice, the wind will be blowing 10-15 kt.

Not an official forecast.


Yep it looks like the real deal. Luckily it won't be a good freezing rain event rather it is sleet/snow as you are right the winds will be blowing briskly and gusting 30 mph at times. It will look and play the part quite well. I think this will be a big deal on the roads rather than the power grid though not say it won't cause power outages.

Of course this all comes towards the end and March isn't promising for Spring planting, fitting right? Third year in a row.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#5096 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:35 am

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Snow cover is helping these HP's hold their strength too. A couple degrees loer and Houston will have an interesting time early next week.

And I will submit that DFW high temps busted low by 5 degrees just about every day this week.


Yeah! And that is what concerns me about my area and the forecast. If the models are too warm and y'all to our north get decent ground cover of sleet ... we have potential here of a major forecast bust and general chaos as the timeframe of the beginning of precip is Monday morning. Imagine folks getting to school and work and the conditions deteriorate rapidly!

While I think you Metroplexers/North Texans will definitely get wintry weather, our chances down here are far from remote.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5097 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:48 am

May be too early but at least for North Texas Lucy seems to have lost her focus. Just one moment is all we need and the free peoples of Texas can win the game!

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opticsguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5098 Postby opticsguy » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:50 am

Yep it looks like the real deal. Luckily it won't be a good freezing rain event rather it is sleet/snow as you are right the winds will be blowing briskly and gusting 30 mph at times. It will look and play the part quite well. I think this will be a big deal on the roads rather than the power grid though not say it won't cause power outages.

Of course this all comes towards the end and March isn't promising for Spring planting, fitting right? Third year in a row.


My tomato plants will be big enough to plant outside in a week, but that's not happening. Before AGW I could put tomatoes out the last week of Feb and only have to cover them a few times. This year it looks like mid-March before the soil temp gets close to the required 60F. A heated greenhouse is looking better all the time.
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Re: Re:

#5099 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:09 am

Portastorm wrote:
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Snow cover is helping these HP's hold their strength too. A couple degrees loer and Houston will have an interesting time early next week.

And I will submit that DFW high temps busted low by 5 degrees just about every day this week.


Yeah! And that is what concerns me about my area and the forecast. If the models are too warm and y'all to our north get decent ground cover of sleet ... we have potential here of a major forecast bust and general chaos as the timeframe of the beginning of precip is Monday morning. Imagine folks getting to school and work and the conditions deteriorate rapidly!

While I think you Metroplexers/North Texans will definitely get wintry weather, our chances down here are far from remote.


Portastorm, the models have busted BIG TIME on several occasions over the past three weeks in my opinion. I think there is real, valid concern for what you mentioned - a forecast bust and wintry conditions extending much deeper into central and perhaps southeastern Texas.

As I've referenced before, up here in north central Texas, we had two days earlier this month where temps remained entrenched in the 30s all day long despite promises of milder weather by forecasters hugging the model output. A high of 34 one day (nearly 5-7 degrees off the forecast if I remember) and of 40 another (touched 40 briefly, was in the 30s most of the day, and again, that was nearly 5-7 degrees off the forecast) serve as glaring examples.

And more recently, one day in the last a week or so was also considerably chillier than advertised here in the Red River Valley.

I think this is a big storm looming for North Texas and perhaps one that will make its presence felt down all the way south to the home offices of the PWC.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5100 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:17 am

Ntxw wrote:Yep it looks like the real deal. Luckily it won't be a good freezing rain event rather it is sleet/snow as you are right the winds will be blowing briskly and gusting 30 mph at times. It will look and play the part quite well. I think this will be a big deal on the roads rather than the power grid though not say it won't cause power outages. Of course this all comes towards the end and March isn't promising for Spring planting, fitting right? Third year in a row.


If we do get some sizable sleet totals out of this, I would anticipate that temperature forecasts for the middle of the week will bust. The December 2013 storm - an extreme event, for sure - kept kids out of school here in Denison for a total of five days. That's the record for most consecutive days missed in the 30+ years I've lived here. And that's with Saturday and Sunday sandwiched into the middle of that span.

The reason that the roads - especially neighborhood streets and shaded roadways - stayed so treacherous was that a sheet of ice kept temperatures below forecast values for nearly a week. And that was at the beginning of December, not in the heart of the winter season in late December, January and early February.

If I've learned anything over the years here in the Red River Valley, it's that snow and freezing rain often melt rather quickly once the storm ends. But sleet tends to wear out its welcome a bit.
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