Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

Bastardi has a new video up and titled it Wintry Malice in Dallas. I like that phrase. Icemageddon II?

[TheProfessor]

Did the temperatures bust today? The cold front has already passed and we are at 47 now, we were supposed to hit 70 today. I wonder how that may affect Sunday?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Bastardi has a new video up and titled it Wintry Malice in Dallas. I like that phrase. Icemageddon II?

Icemageddon 2, Electric Bugaloo

[Texas Snowman]

Yup, wind out of the north here and the temperature is 44 degrees under cloudy skies. If the clouds remain, doubtful that we'll reach the "Sunny and 52" that Fort Worth NWS has forecast for Denison/Sherman today.

[Ntxw]

I would watch to see where the 850mb front will sit. Somewhere between I-20 and just south of the Red River, I think this is where convective storms might occur. In short thundersleet, locally.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I would watch to see where the 850mb front will sit. Somewhere between I-20 and just south of the Red River, I think this is where convective storms might occur. In short thundersleet, locally.

Dont tease me.

[orangeblood]

My tomato plants will be big enough to plant outside in a week, but that's not happening. Before AGW I could put tomatoes out the last week of Feb and only have to cover them a few times. This year it looks like mid-March before the soil temp gets close to the required 60F. A heated greenhouse is looking better all the time.

Would love to hear more about this "AGW" you speak of ?

[orangeblood]

Latest GFS trending colder with Friday's system....the Southern half of the state might get in on the action at that point!!

[wxman57]

Did the temperatures bust today? The cold front has already passed and we are at 47 now, we were supposed to hit 70 today. I wonder how that may affect Sunday?

Temperatures up in the D-FW metroplex areas had already reached the upper 60s before the front moved through. No bust.

[Ntxw]

Did the temperatures bust today? The cold front has already passed and we are at 47 now, we were supposed to hit 70 today. I wonder how that may affect Sunday?

Temperatures up in the D-FW metroplex areas had already reached the upper 60s before the front moved through. No bust.

It could still bust, overnight gfs runs had the afternoon warming back up to near 60.

[fendie]

Latest GFS trending colder with Friday's system....the Southern half of the state might get in on the action at that point!!

Yep. 12Z GFS is pretty similar to the last couple runs through next Thursday with maybe a few hours delay with the cold air (and still slightly warm above the surface pointing to an ice/freezing rain threat instead of snow through mid week in N Texas).

Next Friday afternoon it has temperatures a few degrees colder in S/SE TX and SW LA with the freezing line approaching the coast. This with the projecting moisture and lift has freezing rain throughout the upper TX coast and SW LA next Friday at noon.

[opticsguy]

Question: The 12Z NAM has a good amount (.5") of rain falling through a layer of cold, saturated air at 925mB. Would we have to worry about the rain from 850 mb warming up this layer, or would the droplets become super-cooled and freeze on contact with bridges and overpasses, maybe even cooling the bridges faster than otherwise?

[Tejas89]

Latest from FWD

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS VERY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY SLEET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...FREEZING RAIN. SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE MODELED BY SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND WE WILL ASSESS THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[Ntxw]

FW looks like they are ready for the warnings tonight. There is no excuse for the cities to not be prepared with those plows and treatment as the weather service has been quite prompt with these watches.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The crazy thing is my area of Texas currently doesn't have any watch or warnings out for it. All areas to our north and areas to our south do but not here. I found that sort of strange being right on the red river.

[opticsguy]

I hope Dallas area schools make the call Sunday night and avoid a repeat of the Atlanta fiasco.

[Ntxw]

I hope Dallas area schools make the call Sunday night and avoid a repeat of the Atlanta fiasco.

I agree no need to put people out in the thick of it Monday morning, really classes may need to be closed Tuesday too and maybe even delay Wed morning.

[gboudx]

Update from Steve McCauley:

The first surge of cooler air is now making its way across north Texas with 40s to the NW and 60s to near 70 to the SE. High temperatures for the day have been reached locally and will hold in the 50s for the rest of the day. On Sunday we will hold in the 40s in the morning and then fall into the mid 30s by sunset with a cold rain developing as a winter storm organizes.

For those of you who are big snow fans, I'm afraid this storm does not look to be a very impressive snow maker in our area since most of the precipitation will fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain, but perhaps the Red River Counties might be able to accumulate at least some snow before this event is over. Oklahoma will pick up quite a bit of snow beginning Sunday morning and continuing through Monday.

The sleet and freezing rain will move across the Metroplex beginning Sunday evening and continue into Monday. Since we are not expecting temperatures to get above freezing on Monday, this will likely turn out to be a significant ice event for us. I will be running the SM for ice accumulations on this one today because I am now home !

[Brent]

Big temperature bust today... I thought even with the front we were gonna be in the low 60s in the afternoon(maybe dropping into the 50s but not the 40s)

at 4am:


TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

[NDG]

I hope you guys are ready for the this Winter's grand finale, we had ours this week, now is yours over the next 7-14 days with the EPO negative and the PNA going negative