Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5181 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:21 pm

They also say on their website the storm won't remotely compare to the 2013 storm or the super bowl storm... Thoughts?
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5182 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:41 pm

:uarrow: This is a short range model showing a quite a bit of precip, and not all the precip has moved over yet. If that were to verify it could be a lot like the 2013 event. Unless they are talking about the freezing rain aspect? or Maybe the longevity?

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#5183 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:47 pm

Also the SREF now has a mean average precip of .92" more than half a inch than it was forecasting yesterday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5184 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:51 pm

There also seems to be the view it will be much worse northwest of the metroplex but I'm not entirely sure I believe that especially with the wsw now from Shreveport all the way down to Lufkin!!!

Looking at the sref there it has the bullseye basically over the metroplex
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#5185 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:06 pm

This just came out too


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

OKZ021>025-027>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221045-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0021.150222T1800Z-150224T0000Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...
YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...
NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAURIKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL...DURANT...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...
MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
842 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY.

* TIMING: BANDS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

* SNOW IMPACT: WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES. HIGHER TOTALS OF SNOW...PERHAPS IN THE THREE TO FIVE
INCH RANGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40. A WINTER
STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ONCE THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES CLEARER.

* SLEET IMPACTS: A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS... ARDMORE...AND COALGATE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
SLEET MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-HALF TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN AREAS WHERE ONLY SLEET OCCURS...UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.
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#5186 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:24 pm

Just found something out pretty interesting that I had no idea about. Ft Worth and Norman have different winter storm warning criterias. With the amount of freezing rain and sleet that the metroplex is expecting it is equivalent to a warning where as with the NWS in Norman it would only be a winter weather advisory. I may have been told wrong. Any ideas on this?
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#5187 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:25 pm

Some of the DFW area news forecasts are bizarre, but that is nothing new from news forecasters. Just have to try to find the few good ones for your area, I never have found a good one in my area.
This storm could very well be a highly impacteful storm followed by another late in the week.
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Re:

#5188 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:27 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Just found something out pretty interesting that I had no idea about. Ft Worth and Norman have different winter storm warning criterias. With the amount of freezing rain and sleet that the metroplex is expecting it is equivalent to a warning where as with the NWS in Norman it would only be a winter weather advisory. I may have been told wrong. Any ideas on this?


Warning criteria is different everywhere as a prime example

I lived in Alabama til a few months ago and my NWS criteria for a warning there was only 2" of snow while here in Dallas its 4" of snow and honestly they average about the same snowfall annually.
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#5189 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:29 pm

Models see to nat have very much precip late week, but were still a ways out.
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Re:

#5190 Postby orangeblood » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:30 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Also the SREF now has a mean average precip of .92" more than half a inch than it was forecasting yesterday.


Something we need to keep in mind re: QPF amounts, the majority of the total qpf is falling before temps get to the freezing mark maybe close to 65-75%. I would agree with some of the local mets that this isn't on the same level as Dec 2013, not nearly as much qpf with temps below freezing. Now, if that front came through faster than forecast or the Shortwave coming out of Mexico (isn't sampled as well in the 1st place) is stronger, than that would change things.
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Re:

#5191 Postby TrekkerCC » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:33 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Just found something out pretty interesting that I had no idea about. Ft Worth and Norman have different winter storm warning criterias. With the amount of freezing rain and sleet that the metroplex is expecting it is equivalent to a warning where as with the NWS in Norman it would only be a winter weather advisory. I may have been told wrong. Any ideas on this?


The Norman (OUN) and Ft. Worth (FWD) criteria are very similar, except for one main difference:

Both will issue a Winter Storm Warning for:

Heavy Snow - 4" snow accumulation over a 12 hour period or 6" snow accumulation over a 24 hour period

Freezing Rain - 1/4" ice accumulation from Freezing Rain

Here is the difference --

FWD will issue a Winter Storm Warning for 1/2" ice accumulation from sleet
OUN will issue a Winter Storm Warning for 1" ice accumulation from sleet

Essentially, a half-inch sleet accumulation difference in criteria between the two offices.
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Re: Re:

#5192 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:37 pm

orangeblood wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Also the SREF now has a mean average precip of .92" more than half a inch than it was forecasting yesterday.


Something we need to keep in mind re: QPF amounts, the majority of the total qpf is falling before temps get to the freezing mark maybe close to 65-75%. I would agree with some of the local mets that this isn't on the same level as Dec 2013, not nearly as much qpf with temps below freezing. Now, if that front came through faster than forecast or the Shortwave coming out of Mexico (isn't sampled as well in the 1st place) is stronger, than that would change things.


yep, Texarkana's total QPF is forecast to be close to an inch. However, only .33" is forecast to fall when the temperature is below freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5193 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:46 pm

Latest runs of tonight's models seem to indicate that much of the precipitation will be Sunday with the first disturbance as rain. Lighter amounts of frozen precip will fall with the second disturbance on Monday.

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#5194 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:47 pm

:uarrow: SREF still has almost half an inch falling when the temps are below freezing, which would equate to about 1.5-2.0 inches of sleet, which isn't too far off of 2013.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5195 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:53 pm

The 0z NAM shows the bulk of the precip coming Sunday ... but the 0z GFS has two disturbances, one on Sunday and one on Monday. Same with the latest SREF (21z). No consensus quite yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5196 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:59 pm

Todd Warren's Futurecast model agrees with the GFS, one disturbance on Sunday and one on Monday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5197 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:06 pm

As a matter of fact, I just went back and looked at the rest of the GFS run through Tuesday. It has a decent amount of QPF(with temps below freezing)west of 35 and north of 20, but very little to the east and south of there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5198 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:15 pm

aggiecutter wrote:As a matter of fact, I just went back and looked at the rest of the GFS run through Tuesday. It has a decent amount of QPF(with temps below freezing)west of 35 and north of 20, but very little to the east and south of there.


The total accumulated precip map I just looked at from the 0z GFS shows a swath of 1-2" of precip from west central Texas into northeast Texas between Sunday and Tuesday.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5199 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:25 pm

I'm talking about with temperatures below freezing. As Orangeblood pointed out above, it looks like 65-70% of the precip will fall when temperatures are above freezing. This is especially true east of 35 and south of 20, at least according to several model runs tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5200 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:34 pm

Meanwhile it ain't far away from the northplexers...

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