Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST MON FEB 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
REMAINS AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW LEAVING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GENERATING
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGIONAL WATERS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN HALF TO
ONE INCH. A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH CONVERGENCE REMAINS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...STARTING ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD ESTABLISH...IMPROVING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL. THE
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT WHICH MAY CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WHEN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA ON MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA
ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST. IN THE AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AT TJPS BETWEEN 17Z-21Z NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL100...STRONG WESTERLIES ABOVE FL200.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41047 LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA ARE SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 12 TO 13 FEET WITH
PERIODS OF 13 SECONDS. THIS SWELL ACTION IS EXPECTED TO INVADE OUR
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NORTH FACING
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REFER TO LATEST
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 74 87 74 / 60 20 20 20
STT 83 75 85 75 / 60 20 20 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST MON FEB 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A BROAD POLAR TOUGH
SUPPORTED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS A WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. BY THEN...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY...
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IN PLACE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY. FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INCREASE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ERODING
ONCE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE POLAR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL AID IN SUPRESSING AND SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FURTHER NORTH...A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATALNTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. THE SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AND IMPACT THE
REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THOURGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DECREASING CLOUDIESS AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PREVALING EASTERLY TRADES WILL HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE INDUCED TROUGHINESS AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. BY THEN...SURFACE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AROUND FL040-060 EXPECTED WITH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PR AND THE USVI THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING...
SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS IN SOME AREAS BUT PREVAILING VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS WHEN SHRA IS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. CLOUDS AND
RAIN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 17/04Z...LEAVING FEW/SCT SKY COVER AND
ONLY PASSING -SHRA OVER THE WATERS. WINDS PREVAILING FROM THE ENE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY TURNING MORE LIGHT AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 10 PM TONIGHT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
STARTING AT 9 PM AST TONIGHT...WITH THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS AND THE
LOCAL PASSAGES BEING INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 88 / 40 40 20 20
STT 75 85 75 85 / 40 30 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST TUE FEB 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A BROAD POLAR TOUGH
SUPPORTED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AS A WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND. BY THEN...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IN PLACE IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
MOVED INLAND...AND AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO HALF INCH. A
DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. DURING THE
WEEKEND...A BROAD POLAR TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AS A WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE AT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ
TIL MID-MORNING. THEN...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO EXPECT MAINLY
VCSH OVER WEST PR TERMINALS. LLVL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-20 KT BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 LOCATED AROUND 180 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
SHOWED WAVE HEIGHT BETWEEN 10 TO 11 FEET AT 15 SECONDS.
ALSO...BUOY 41046 LOCATED AROUND 490 MILES NORTHWEST OF RINCON
SHOWED WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL ACTION
WILL ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 88 74 / 40 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 30 20 20 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST TUE FEB 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO ERODE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WINDS BECAME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS IS TO HOWEVER MAINTAIN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADES. BY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TO THEN LOOSEN AND DECREASE THE LOCAL
TRADE WINDS AS A WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DISSIPATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE FINALLY LIFTING WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY...AS THE TRADE WINDS INCREASED ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AND BECAME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST. EARLIER TJSJ 17/12Z UPPER AIR DATA
AS WELL AS THE SATELITE DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT BOTH SUGGESTED PWAT VALUES WERE STILL BETWEEN 1.30 TO 1.5
INCHES. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWER TO FORM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HELP STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND THEREFORE SUPPRESS/LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DO
TRY TO DEVELOP.

BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LOCAL TRADE
WINDS ARE TO WEAKEN AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL ERODE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SHORT DURATION AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY. IN ADDITION ...WEAK FRONTAL SHEARLINE IS TO SINK SOUTHWARDS
TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ALLOWING FOR BETTER TRANSPORT OF PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INITIALIZING
FAIRLY WELL IN RECENT DAYS...AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY...DUE TO FAIR AMOUNTS OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION. NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO....WITH LESSER ACTIVITY FOR THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS...EAST TO
ESE WINDS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 17/22Z. VCSH
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/18Z FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD PASSING -SHRA OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 17/23Z PREVAILING FROM THE EAST AT
5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 11 FEET AT 13-14 SECONDS. RECENT NEAR SHORE BOUY
41053 ALSO SUGGESTED SEAS OF NEAR 8 FEET AROUND 14 SECONDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATION CAN THEREFORE BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH CONTINUED BREAKING WAVE ACTION BETWEEN 10 TO 14 FEET. FOR THIS
REASON THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
10 PM AST...PENDING FURTHER REVISION LATER. DUE TO THE NORTHERLY
SWELL ACTION AND INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 74 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 85 75 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST WED FEB 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE WEEKEND AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID TO UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTABLE IN THE MID-UPPER ATMOSPHERE. IT IS
ALSO RATHER DRY AT LOW LEVELS AS SHOWN BY 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS WITH
JUST A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER
PR AND USVI. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE WEST AND
NW PR EACH AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRIDAY. THEN...A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND...
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA WITH ONLY VCSH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS...ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY TO NORTH
NORTHWEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH NORTH SWELLS PEAKED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
YESTERDAY...BUOY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SWELL HEIGHT RANGING BETWEEN
7-9 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 10 TO 14
FEET ALONG THE NORTH FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN US VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 89 74 / 20 30 30 30
STT 84 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED FEB 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LONG WAVE POLAR TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE CAP INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT/SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC... WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND ENTERING THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN IT HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE RECEDES FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S. MAINLAND BY FRIDAY AND ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENT/DRIER AIR MASS PREVAILED. EXCEPT FOR MILD SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS IN SOME AREAS...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAILED WITH
OCCASIONAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME AREAS. EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER LAND BY THE EVENING
HOURS WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LAND EXCEPT FOR TRADE WIND
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WITH
PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES OR
SO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE DECREASING ONCE AGAIN.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DIURNAL EFFECT
AND LOCAL FORCING AS WELL AS THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION
ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING
THE EASTERN TRADE WIND FLOW. BY THEN ONLY A FEW EARLY PASSING MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.
NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS
OF VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI TERMINALS CAN CREATE
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2 PM AST...BUOYS 41115 AT RINCON...41053 AT
SAN JUAN AND 41043 NE OF PUERTO RICO...ALL SUGGEST THAT THE
NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION CONTINUED TO STEADILY SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...
WAVE HEIGHTS WERE STILL AROUND 7 FEET AT 14 SECONDS AND WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS AND
ATLANTIC COASTAL SHORELINES AT LEAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM AST
FOR THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
ALSO REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 73 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 84 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST THU FEB 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FLATTENING THE UPPER
RIDGE AND DEEPENING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN THE MID-UPPER ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...A BAND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT...
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE PASSING SHOWERS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
SHALLOW AND BRIEF THE REST OF TODAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS PR/USVI TODAY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON.
ON FRIDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR WHERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLATTENING THE MID-UPPER RIDGE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IN TURN WILL AID IN
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING NEAR 1.5-1.6 INCHES
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST TAF
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 19/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLY THIS
MORNING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4-6 FEET TODAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET IN
EASTERLY WIND WAVES. CONFUSED SEAS ARE PROBABLE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERLY WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH A SMALL NNW SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 82 76 84 75 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST THU FEB 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SECOND AND THIRD WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. THE RIDGE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN BY TUESDAY. A
WEAK HIGH WILL RIDGE NORTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A HIGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY AND RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE. IT WILL BE JOINED BY A STRONGER HIGH THAT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER
EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO HISPANIOLA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN REVERSE BACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
THAT WILL CARRY MOIST PATCHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF CABO ROJO AND WEST
OF SAINT CROIX. A STREAMER ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNWIND FROM THE
ISLAND...BUT WAS DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE REACHING HUMACAO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AT MODEST LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOT EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEK. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT
COMPLETELY ELIMINATE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING SAN JUAN. THE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
WAS 88 AND A SIMILAR HIGH IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. OTHERWISE MOST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...TIL 22Z BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN WITH BUOY 41043 NOW BELOW
6 FEET AND SAN JUAN NEAR SHORE BUOY JUST BELOW 4 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE. BY SATURDAY A NORTH SWELL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
ARRIVE WITH HEIGHTS OF UP TO 5 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 86 / 20 30 50 50
STT 75 85 75 85 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES NORTH. MIGRATORY
SURFACE HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BECOMING
LOCALLY STRONG SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE PROXIMITY OF A DEEP POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PR THIS AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING TRADES. HOWEVER UNDER THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW...
EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...FROM 20/17Z TIL 20/22Z BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO DEVELOPING SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 5 TO 15 KTS AFTER 20/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING. A NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL ALSO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 20 50 50 30
STT 84 76 84 75 / 20 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA AFTER A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. A SHARP RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL DRIFT WEST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING THEN RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BUILD NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY CAUSING
INCREASING GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH NEAR 700 MB WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WAS VERY WEAK AS
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST HAD NOT YET MOVED IN. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
SO POPS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE LOOK GOOD. MOISTURE PEAKS ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE MOISTURE REMAINS MODERATE AND FLOW MOSTLY
EASTERLY BRINGING A TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWER SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 21/04Z AT ALL
TAF SITES...BRIEF MVFR IN CIGS POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 21/04Z
MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AND AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH TIST AND TISX AND ENGULF EASTERN PR. AFT 21/16Z MVFR TO
DEVELOP AT TJMZ. SHRA WILL CONTINUE THRU 22/02Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY
5 TO 15 KT EXCEPT BECOMING 15 TO 20 KT AFT 21/12Z FROM FL030-070.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EXTENDING
INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SATURDAY. 7
FOOT SEAS TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 50 50 30 30
STT 76 84 75 85 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER
THE USVI AND E PR. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE/INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS W AND SW PR.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT/EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING
TRADES. HOWEVER TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AND
LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS W PR CANT BE RULED OUT SUN-TUE. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU WEDNESDAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SHARP DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS LIKELY FOR TIST/TISX/TJSJ AND POSSIBLY
TJBQ AS THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. AFTER 21/18Z MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND SOME
SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA COULD DEVELOP IN/AROUND TJMZ. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15 KTS TODAY...
DECREASING IN SPEED AFTER 22/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ARRIVE AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH
FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 7 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 12 TO 14
SECONDS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 10 TO 13 FEET.
THEREFORE HIGH SURF ADV IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
THRU MIDNIGHT AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 70 30 30 40
STT 84 75 85 76 / 50 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SAT FEB 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THEN UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EXCEPT ON
TUESDAY WHEN SLIGHT TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL OVERCOME
IT. MODEST MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY UNTIL MID WEEK. THEN NO
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND TAKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE EAST IN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DRIFTS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOME DRYING
WILL OCCUR AFTER MID-WEEK. SHALLOW PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EVEN THEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF RAIN PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DAMPENING ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WERE
NOTED ON NEXRAD RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO PUERTO RICO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ANOTHER WEAK PULSE OF MOISTURE SHOULD COME
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER THEN INCREASES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SHOWERS ALSO WILL SURGE A LITTLE...MUCH LIKE TODAY.
WINDS BY THAT TIME MAY BE A LITTLE MORE RELAXED BUT TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TURN TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST MID WEEK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS AND MID-LEVELS DRY AFTER MID WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLAND PR
THRU AT LEAST 23Z...CREATING MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ACROSS TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS THRU THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT...WITH VCSH AT TIMES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT TJPS/TJMZ.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-25 KTS BLO FL100.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ROSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND FASTER THAN FORECAST...BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE REACHING A
SUNDAY PEAK. SEAS REACHED 9 FEET AT THE RINCON BUOY...BUT SUBSIDED
A FOOT AFTER ONLY ONE HOUR. SEAS REACHED 7 FEET AT THE NEAR
SHORE SAN JUAN BUOY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED
CONSIDERABLY AT THE 41043 BUOY BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED
BEFORE THIS SWELL EVENT IS OVER. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH SURF
EVENT WILL BE RENEWED TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 85 / 60 60 40 40
STT 75 84 76 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY AND HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER THE EAST AND NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PR
AS WELL AS OVER THE USVI. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH
OR LESS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT.
HOWEVER BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BOTH DAYS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS/HOLDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PASSING SHRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...DEVELOPING SHRA ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...CAUSING MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS TJMZ...THE VICINITY OF TJPS/TJBQ
AND TJSJ CAN EXPECT SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING AT AROUND
10 KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 22/14Z.
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR TJPS AND TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW AND SUBSIDING SWELL
ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND MONDAY. SEAS BEGIN
TO IMPROVE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AS WINDS DIMINISH. SEAS
BUILD AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 30 40 30 40
STT 84 76 84 75 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE WEAKER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL
PINCH UP OVER THE AREA AND FLOW WILL SHIFT AND WEAKEN.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY. AT THAT TIME IT WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS UNTIL MID WEEK...THEN MID
LEVELS WILL BECOME VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH WILL EXTEND TO THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS BLOCKING ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE FRONT. FLOW AROUND THE
ISLANDS IN THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FROM MID-
WEEK UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN MOVING THROUGH PUERTO
RICO AFTER DAMPENING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD AND LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MUCH
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST BY THE GFS...CAUSING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
DROP TO BELOW 0.80 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH MID LEVELS ALSO
SEEING MUCH LESS MOISTURE AFTER MID-WEEK EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DRY UP CONSIDERABLY THEN. AT THE SAME TIME FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE AND
DOWN-SLOPE FLOW WILL WARM THE NORTHERN COAST UP CONSIDERABLY.
CURRENTLY THE MEX IS FORECASTING 88 DEGREES ON THURSDAY FOR SAN
JUAN...BUT SHOULD CURRENT FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN VERIFY WOULD
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 NEAR THE COASTS OF SAN JUAN AND
ARECIBO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TIST/TISX/TJPS/TJSJ...MAINLY AS VCSH WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY EVENING
ACROSS TJMZ/TJPS. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MAINLAND PR...WITH
SCT/BKN LAYERS BLO FL050 AND MAX TOPS OF 20 KFT ARE EXPECTED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS
WESTWARD THRU THE REST OF THE FLYING AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE... DECREASING TO 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT AT THE SFC.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 8.5 FEET TODAY AT BUOY 41043
AND HOVERED JUST BELOW 7 FEET AT 41053 JUST OUTSIDE OF SAN JUAN.
PERIODS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 10-11 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHT VALUES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER LATE TONIGHT AND MOST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE REMOVED BY TUESDAY. LOCAL TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
FRESH TO STRONG...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 40 50 50 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE THE EASTERN US THROUGH
MIDWEEK...CAUSING A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO IMPACT OVER LAND
AREAS AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVED IN. THIS HOWEVER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...CAUSING MORE SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR INTO WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE TIME
OF MAX HEATING ALONG WITH ANY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING.

FOR TUESDAY A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK A BIT LESS ACTIVE WITH
ONLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SOME CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH LESS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER BRIEF SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE
RULED OUT AT KPK/NCM/IST/ISX AND JSJ TODAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE. AFT 23/17Z...SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA AFFECTING JMZ AND JBQ. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD
AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY INTO MIDWEEK. ON THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY
AIR MASS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. LOCAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 8K FEET AND A STRONG CAP AT 750 MB. RADAR OBS HAVE SHOWED FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BASICALLY...BRIEF SHOWERS
AFFECTED MOST OF PUERTO RICO...EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
CORNERS OF PR. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A FEW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INTERVALS OF DRY AND MOIST
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...
KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST PORTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH THE MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DURING THE WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL DROP BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY
IN THE MORNING...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TNCM...
TKPK...TIST AND TISX AFTER 24/10Z AND ACROSS TJSJ AFTER 24/12Z.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST
AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS OF AROUND 5-6 FT. OFFSHORE
BUOY 41043 IS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE
AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS WILL
IMPROVE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEN...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EAST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT
TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND AREAS.
THIS PATTERN OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
LOCAL EFFECTS. FOR TODAY THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE SAME STORY COULD BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS A PATCH OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENED AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT UNTIL THURSDAY THAN
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
AND DIMINISHING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...WHICH COULD INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHALLOW
FOR THE MOST PART WITH MAYBE A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFT 24/17Z...SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...THIS MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND JMZ AND JBQ. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF PR AS THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS INDICATED
THAT SEAS WERE UNDER 5 FEET AND WINDS WERE LIGHT. THE REST OF THE
AREAS ARE STILL UNDER THE ADVISORY...THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
USVI IS UNDER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TODAY WHILE THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM AST. WINDS ARE
BECOMING LIGHTER WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING WINDS UP
TO 18 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND THE LOCAL BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING
LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 87 74 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THEN...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EAST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT
TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATER...CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO IN THE VICINITY OF
MAYAGUEZ. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.4
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST
24/22Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE REST OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY VCSH. AFTER 25/17Z...SHRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...THIS MAY RESULT
AGAIN IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET... BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 87 74 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 AM AST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS.
RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONE LAST DAY OF `WET CONDITIONS` BEFORE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. AN AREA OF HIGHER
TPW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME WILL ADVECT WWD
TODAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF
THE REGION LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-KT OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND OVER WATER INTO SUN MORNING.

RIDGE WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH PATTERN
BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN PROMOTING MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS MON AND TUE. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA XCP SCT OVR NW PR IN AFT...YET VFR EVEN IN
MOST SHRA THRU THU. FEW OBSCD MTNS THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL120 E-ESE
12-20 KT INCR E 14-28 KT LATE TONITE-THU.


&&

.MARINE...ONE LAST DAY OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND STEEP WAVES OF 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SUN AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT AS
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR WILL SLOW DOWN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE FIRE WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH SUN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC
AND ALOFT LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE FUEL MOISTURE
AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE MONTH OF FEB IN MOST
PLACES. GREATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE BEEN IN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWEST...
SOUTHEAST...AND NCNTRL PR BASED ON AHPS AND LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL DEFICITS THIS TIME AROUND ARE SIGNIFICANT LOWER
WHEN COMPARED TO THE WINTER OF 2013 AND 2014. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A
FIRE WX WATCH FOR ST. CROIX WHERE 30-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
DISMAL AND MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY VEGETATION AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO BURNING. WILL ALSO COORDINATE WITH PR FIRE CORPS AND FISH AND
WILDLIFE SERVICE ON FUEL CONDITIONS TO SEE WHETHER FIRE WX WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 77 84 77 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS....RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK LEADING TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS.
RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

&&

.DISCUSSION....ONCE AGAIN...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER...STREAMER FROM EL YUNQUE DEVELOPED
AND AFFECT THE METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 TO
1.2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED...AS THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ UNTIL AT
LEAST 25/22Z AS FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH ONLY
VCSH. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K
FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTWARD AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 74 87 / 10 10 10 20
STT 77 84 77 85 / 10 10 10 20