Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Cosgrove posted this on Facebook a couple of hours ago. See #1 and #4:

"As I had suspected, the various numerical models were/are under-playing the growing storm threat for Texas, Dixie, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, you read right....

1) Satellite imagery shows the cause for concern that this will be a far bigger presence in people's lives tomorrow and Thursday. You have a well-defined impulse in Arizona that is stronger, and moving a bit further northward, than what earlier equation runs were saying. TX....OK....AR....LA gets nailed tomorrow, with the DFW Metroplex, Texarkana, and Shreveport seeing important ice and snow accumulations.


2) By Wednesday night, the upper low will be riding along the southern border of Tennessee, then recurve along or above Interstate 85. Those south of its path must change from snow to sleet/freezing rain. Enough of a CAD wedge should present to keep the Anderson SC....Charlotte NC....Winston-Salem NC corridor as snow for -most- of the event, but 3-6" of snow with an ice coating will prove to be a debacle for drivers. Parts of N LA....S AR....N, C MS....N, C AL....N, C GA....W, C SC....C NC will have severe glazing. Maximum snowfall will be of the 4-8" variety in TN, extreme N GA, extreme N SC....W NC and much of VA except the extreme northern portion.

3) Yes, the system could turn up the coast. Note the shortwave in AB/SK diving southward, entering the Missouri Valley before merging with the main system. If not for this feature, the southern branch system would move harmlessly off of the NC/VA coast. Instead, the near term models continue with north trends, with an argument emerging fro a period of moderate snow in parts of PA, NJ, and NYC/LI NY on Thursday morning. Note that the 850MB low maintains its integrity through 60 hours. On the idea that the Canadian impulse is stronger than what models initialize, I think it turns and phases with its counterpart, with a -risk- of accumulating snow in portions of the Mid-Atlantic states and New England on February 26.

4) And in case you were wondering....still a siege of unmerciful cold in most cities east of the Rocky Mountains as we enter the weekend. I like the ECMWF weeklies idea of the pattern breaking for good on or after the Equinox.

Stay warm....and say prayers...."

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like the 12z GFS is trying to take the snow away from around the red river on Friday-Saturday. 06z had a decent showing but 12z didn't like it I guess.

[opticsguy]

Hah. WBAP met just said less than an inch of snow, sun out in the afternoon for DFW. Couldn't downplay it much more.

[aggiecutter]

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-006-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-250000-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0003.150225T0600Z-150226T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.W.0004.150225T0600Z-150226T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-UNION LA-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...FARMERVILLE...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL
1000 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW UP TO 4 INCHES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER FROM SLEET
TO SNOW. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Larry Cosgrove posted this on Facebook a couple of hours ago. See #1 and #4:

"As I had suspected, the various numerical models were/are under-playing the growing storm threat for Texas, Dixie, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, you read right....

1) Satellite imagery shows the cause for concern that this will be a far bigger presence in people's lives tomorrow and Thursday. You have a well-defined impulse in Arizona that is stronger, and moving a bit further northward, than what earlier equation runs were saying. TX....OK....AR....LA gets nailed tomorrow, with the DFW Metroplex, Texarkana, and Shreveport seeing important ice and snow accumulations.


2) By Wednesday night, the upper low will be riding along the southern border of Tennessee, then recurve along or above Interstate 85. Those south of its path must change from snow to sleet/freezing rain. Enough of a CAD wedge should present to keep the Anderson SC....Charlotte NC....Winston-Salem NC corridor as snow for -most- of the event, but 3-6" of snow with an ice coating will prove to be a debacle for drivers. Parts of N LA....S AR....N, C MS....N, C AL....N, C GA....W, C SC....C NC will have severe glazing. Maximum snowfall will be of the 4-8" variety in TN, extreme N GA, extreme N SC....W NC and much of VA except the extreme northern portion.

3) Yes, the system could turn up the coast. Note the shortwave in AB/SK diving southward, entering the Missouri Valley before merging with the main system. If not for this feature, the southern branch system would move harmlessly off of the NC/VA coast. Instead, the near term models continue with north trends, with an argument emerging fro a period of moderate snow in parts of PA, NJ, and NYC/LI NY on Thursday morning. Note that the 850MB low maintains its integrity through 60 hours. On the idea that the Canadian impulse is stronger than what models initialize, I think it turns and phases with its counterpart, with a -risk- of accumulating snow in portions of the Mid-Atlantic states and New England on February 26.

4) And in case you were wondering....still a siege of unmerciful cold in most cities east of the Rocky Mountains as we enter the weekend. I like the ECMWF weeklies idea of the pattern breaking for good on or after the Equinox.

Stay warm....and say prayers...."

So more north than previously expected?

[Tejas89]

WBAP met just said less than an inch of snow, sun out in the afternoon for DFW. Couldn't downplay it much more.

Brad Barton? He's notorious for downplaying winter weather, in the style of Harold Taft. Of course he's right most of the time around here.

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Cosgrove posted this on Facebook a couple of hours ago. See #1 and #4:

"As I had suspected, the various numerical models were/are under-playing the growing storm threat for Texas, Dixie, and the Eastern Seaboard. Yes, you read right....

1) Satellite imagery shows the cause for concern that this will be a far bigger presence in people's lives tomorrow and Thursday. You have a well-defined impulse in Arizona that is stronger, and moving a bit further northward, than what earlier equation runs were saying. TX....OK....AR....LA gets nailed tomorrow, with the DFW Metroplex, Texarkana, and Shreveport seeing important ice and snow accumulations.


2) By Wednesday night, the upper low will be riding along the southern border of Tennessee, then recurve along or above Interstate 85. Those south of its path must change from snow to sleet/freezing rain. Enough of a CAD wedge should present to keep the Anderson SC....Charlotte NC....Winston-Salem NC corridor as snow for -most- of the event, but 3-6" of snow with an ice coating will prove to be a debacle for drivers. Parts of N LA....S AR....N, C MS....N, C AL....N, C GA....W, C SC....C NC will have severe glazing. Maximum snowfall will be of the 4-8" variety in TN, extreme N GA, extreme N SC....W NC and much of VA except the extreme northern portion.

3) Yes, the system could turn up the coast. Note the shortwave in AB/SK diving southward, entering the Missouri Valley before merging with the main system. If not for this feature, the southern branch system would move harmlessly off of the NC/VA coast. Instead, the near term models continue with north trends, with an argument emerging fro a period of moderate snow in parts of PA, NJ, and NYC/LI NY on Thursday morning. Note that the 850MB low maintains its integrity through 60 hours. On the idea that the Canadian impulse is stronger than what models initialize, I think it turns and phases with its counterpart, with a -risk- of accumulating snow in portions of the Mid-Atlantic states and New England on February 26.

4) And in case you were wondering....still a siege of unmerciful cold in most cities east of the Rocky Mountains as we enter the weekend. I like the ECMWF weeklies idea of the pattern breaking for good on or after the Equinox.

Stay warm....and say prayers...."

So more north than previously expected?

Seemed to be what he was indicating, didn't see anything in his later comments that led me to believe otherwise. And he posted a NAM model shot that showed the lollipop of heaviest snow between Dallas and southern Oklahoma.

I think I may approach this storm like I did potential snowstorms as a kid. Go to bed early, wake up in the middle of the night and see if it's snowing or not.

[Texas Snowman]

He's also been reasonably consistent in stating that he thinks the recent pattern across much of the U.S. (I know, I know, that doesn't necessarily mean here) will hold until around March 20th, then break.

I guess we'll see.

[Tireman4]

Chris Hebert from Impact Weather solved the mystery:

"Looking at the vertical temperature profile, it doesn’t support snow as we normally think of snow. But it does support something similar – snow grains. Snow grains are tiny ice crystals (not snow “flakes”) that can form within low stratus clouds in that shallow sub-freezing layer above Huntsville. Individual snow grains typically measure <1mm in size, smaller than sleet. However, I imagine that as snow grains collide with each other on the way down they can grow into larger clusters that give the appearance of large snowflakes."

To see video of the "snow grains" click here: http://abc13.co/1LCsrei

LOL, you gonna believe that old geezer?

Oh I just caught that...oh man....LOL

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest RAP is showing heavy snow developing across northern Texas (between the Red River and I-20) early tomorrow morning (including locations about 20-30 miles west of I-35).

[SouthernMet]

CMC showing snow and low-mid 20's for Austin/Georgetown Friday.

SREF wants light snow and sub freezing temps friday for Austin/Georgetown. (latest SREF running now)

NAM only goes out 84 hours but has light snow from OKC-DFW-Sonora

Grand finale Porta?

[Tireman4]

It is PORTA time!!!!!!!!!

[TheProfessor]

[quote="Texas Snowman"]Larry Cosgrove posted this on Facebook a couple of hours ago. See #1 and #4:

So if he's right then we will probably see warnings be issued this afternoon or evening.

[Texas Snowman]

CMC showing snow and low-mid 20's for Austin/Georgetown Friday.

SREF wants light snow and sub freezing temps friday for Austin/Georgetown. (latest SREF running now)

NAM only goes out 84 hours but has light snow from OKC-DFW-Sonora

Grand finale Porta?

Gosh, I hope so! He deserves it. After the beating that Wxman 57 has been dishing out his way over the last 24 hours or so, I haven't seen him on the site at all. If anyone deserves some winter fun, it's you guys - and especially Portastorm - down in the ATX area.

[Texas Snowman]

Larry Cosgrove posted this on Facebook a couple of hours ago. See #1 and #4:

So if he's right then we will probably see warnings be issued this afternoon or evening.

Depends. As Dhweather pointed out, warning criteria is 4+ inches. So first key is does FW NWS think warning criteria will be met and if so, where will that be. Guess that depends on which model output they're buying into the most.

[Texas Snowman]

Latest RAP is showing heavy snow developing across northern Texas (between the Red River and I-20) early tomorrow morning (including locations about 20-30 miles west of I-35).

So in the end, does the Red River Valley get clobbered? Does I-30 get clobbered? Does I-20 get clobbered? Does anybody get clobbered?

[TheProfessor]

yeah when he said Tx getting nailed tomorrow I assumed he meant more than 4". I guess it depends on what being nailed means to him.

[Brent]

Latest RAP is showing heavy snow developing across northern Texas (between the Red River and I-20) early tomorrow morning (including locations about 20-30 miles west of I-35).

Ooh

[Longhornmaniac8]

I feel another pretty big temperature bust today coming on. With only about another 2 hours til maximum diurnal heating, I'm sitting at 32.5 in NW Austin, far from the low-mid 40s they predicted today.

Will it have any impact on us tomorrow morning? No idea. But it's worth noting.

Cheers,
Cameron

[TheProfessor]

SREF continues to get wetter and snowier for DFW, it also has Friday's high at 28 degrees.