Texas Winter 2014-2015

[iorange55]

So three days with three chances of winter precip. All in. Why not? Have nothing to lose because winter is almost over and done with. Winter needs to exit in a blaze of glory!!

This week could make up for it... but last night kind of killed it for me. Talk about a stab to the heart when you're already down...

We're all in this together, Brent! Let's hope for a little surprise Friday, which might be our last shot. I certainly won't be following it as intensely, but if the flakes come flying, I'll be outside enjoying every minute of it.

[downsouthman1]

So three days with three chances of winter precip. All in. Why not? Have nothing to lose because winter is almost over and done with. Winter needs to exit in a blaze of glory!!

This week could make up for it... but last night kind of killed it for me. Talk about a stab to the heart when you're already down...

It's so funny to me to see people in DFW complaining about a lack of measurable snow today. The snow we got today in Killeen/Temple is the 1st measurable snow we've had in 2 years. And that was only about 1".

Edit: And it was gone a few hours later.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah, this morning was like a dagger being slowly pushed into the chest with salt and a wicked laugh. It hurt.

[downsouthman1]

Here's what I mean: https://www.facebook.com/JonHaverfieldK ... 96/?type=1

[gpsnowman]

downsouthman1, its mainly because of the hype of all the local mets, and models telling/showing us Metroplexers a big snowstorm is coming only to see a few flurries. Some areas did see accumulations. Don't get me wrong, we are all grateful for the rain, sleet, and snow we got this morning. But I don't think I have ever seen so much forecasted with really nothing of the kind happened in DFW. Maybe we are a bit spoiled because of being more north but all precip is appreciated, no matter what form.

[downsouthman1]

downsouthman1, its mainly because of the hype of all the local mets, and models telling/showing us Metroplexers a big snowstorm is coming only to see a few flurries. Some areas did see accumulations. Don't get me wrong, we are all grateful for the rain, sleet, and snow we got this morning. But I don't think I have ever seen so much forecasted with really nothing of the kind happened in DFW. Maybe we are a bit spoiled because of being more north but all precip is appreciated, no matter what form.

I can appreciate that.

[Ralph's Weather]

Friday is not looking like a big snow event, but another inch followed by some sleet looks like a reasonable idea.

[Texas Snowman]

Friday is not looking like a big snow event, but another inch followed by some sleet looks like a reasonable idea.

After last night's disappointment - which seemed to be a big ticket item from just about every model and every met in North Texas - maybe this is the one we should be worried most about! (I know you got snow Ralph's Weather, the rest of us are a bit grumpy closer to the I-35 corridor. )

[Portastorm]

So three days with three chances of winter precip. All in. Why not? Have nothing to lose because winter is almost over and done with. Winter needs to exit in a blaze of glory!!

This week could make up for it... but last night kind of killed it for me. Talk about a stab to the heart when you're already down...

It's so funny to me to see people in DFW complaining about a lack of measurable snow today. The snow we got today in Killeen/Temple is the 1st measurable snow we've had in 2 years. And that was only about 1".

Edit: And it was gone a few hours later.

Two years? Well, it's been 4 years for us. But, I'm not counting or anything. And 11 years since we had anything more than a half inch.

But who are any of us kidding? You all know that once several model cycles show snow or sleet in your area and the hype starts ... that blooding will get pumping ... you'll be accessing computer models and this forum ... and you'll be hoping and praying. We're all suckers. And Lucy has our number more often than not.

[gboudx]

We had accumulation in Rockwall, so not a total bust here. But I subscribe to the mindset of "take what I can get" when it comes to wintry precip. It was a well hyped event but I didn't get excited for it just because of seeing past events fail to deliver. And conversely, events not hyped have overproduced. It's winter in Texas, not Buffalo; meaning "take what you can get".

[aggiecutter]

Just got back online after being without power for 6 hours. Heavy snow today in Texarkana. Will put up video and pictures when I get a chance.

[Brent]

So three days with three chances of winter precip. All in. Why not? Have nothing to lose because winter is almost over and done with. Winter needs to exit in a blaze of glory!!

This week could make up for it... but last night kind of killed it for me. Talk about a stab to the heart when you're already down...

It's so funny to me to see people in DFW complaining about a lack of measurable snow today. The snow we got today in Killeen/Temple is the 1st measurable snow we've had in 2 years. And that was only about 1".

Edit: And it was gone a few hours later.

I didn't mean to upset anyone with my comment... and I'm sorry about your lack of snow.

But all this winter has been in DFW is a bunch of teases, disappointment, heartbreak, and then last night we had hyped up mets about whiteout conditions and someone getting 6 inches of snow... yeah... it hurts...

[Texas Snowman]

It's so funny to me to see people in DFW complaining about a lack of measurable snow today. The snow we got today in Killeen/Temple is the 1st measurable snow we've had in 2 years. And that was only about 1".

Edit: And it was gone a few hours later.

I've lived here for 35 years in North Texas and this is my simple-minded take on it.

* Down in Austin, it seems to me that there is one or two snow/ice events every five to six years.
* Waco gets one or two snow/ice events about every two to three years.
* DFW usually gets one - and sometimes two and rarely three - snow/ice events per winter season.
* Winter weather is slightly more common in the Red River Valley of North Texas and southern Oklahoma (from Wichita Falls to Texarkana), which often means that you can double what DFW gets in terms of event numbers. Instead of one per year, it's often two per year. On rare occasions, three to four per year.
* Further north in Oklahoma City, it's probably twice what the Red River Valley gets each year (three or four events per year, occasionally more).
* Finally, by the time you get into northern Oklahoma, you can pretty much bank on three to five snow events per winter (occasionally more).

As for the timing of winter precip events, I pretty much have Thanksgiving marked in my mind as the earliest possibility to see measurable snow or sleet here and March 20th marked as the last real chance at my house a few miles from the Red River. In terms of amounts, one to three inches is garden variety, three to five inches is less common and anything over six inches is only once every few years. Of course all of this varies to the south and to the north.

At the end of the day, whatever we get each year, it's just the reality of how far south we live in the southern plains. Which I've had to keep reminding myself of all day long.

[Texas Snowman]

All of that in my above post is why the Dec. 2013 sleet storm in Grayson County carries as much or more weight than the 2010 and 2011 snow events did here in North Texas.

We got four to five inches of sleet the first week of December, temps stayed in the 30s for the better part of seven days, our kids missed five days of classes (with a Saturday and Sunday thrown in) because of poor road conditions (the worst I've ever seen here - Hwy. 75 was a virtual parking lots for miles and miles for the better part of two days), and we had measurable sleet on the ground at my house (outside of shaded areas and drifts) for right at a week.

That was unprecedented stuff for us.

[Texas Snowman]

Two years? Well, it's been 4 years for us. But, I'm not counting or anything. And 11 years since we had anything more than a half inch.

But who are any of us kidding? You all know that once several model cycles show snow or sleet in your area and the hype starts ... that blooding will get pumping ... you'll be accessing computer models and this forum ... and you'll be hoping and praying. We're all suckers. And Lucy has our number more often than not.

No doubt. As disappointed as I was this morning, if there's a reasonable chance on Friday, I'll get back in the saddle and see what happens.

In the meantime:

[Texas Snowman]

At least all of this winter weather talk and possibilities beats what we had endured most of the 2014-15 winter. Fort Worth NWS says not one, not two but THREE winter weather possibilities over the next three days.


000
FXUS64 KFWD 252146
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND WE
WILL BE FOCUSING ON 3 SEPARATE CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT
IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THIRD SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY HAS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN...AND COULD
RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS. BEYOND SATURDAY...WE
WILL BE IN A WET PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPRING-LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS COMING UP AROUND TUESDAY.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPED GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IN A
BAND FROM THE CENTRAL CWA EAST-NORTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS. WE HAVE
A SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP ON OUR WEB PAGE IF INTERESTED. THE UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED RAPIDLY EAST AND IN ITS WAKE SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED TO
ALL BUT THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN ZONES HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 50S...AND WHILE NOT QUITE AS
WARM FARTHER EAST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE WARM AIR AND
SUNSHINE HAS MELTED MOST OF THE ICE AND SNOW. SOME ICE AND SNOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
FELL...AND FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ICY SPOTS
ON ROADS TONIGHT.

THE LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO...AND EVENTUALLY BELOW...CURRENT DEWPOINTS. THIS IS A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG AND HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THIS
FOG MAY OCCUR AT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LITTLE ICE ACCRETION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK WHICH WILL MIX UP THE AIR
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO DISPERSE ANY FOG AND
SUBLIME ANY ICE AWAY TOMORROW MORNING.

THURSDAY SYSTEM...
THE MORNING FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION. THE TIGHTENING OF THE HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...A PROCESS CALLED FRONTOGENESIS...IS ONE THAT
CREATES LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND WILL OCCUR OVER OUR REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. THE LIFTING WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
TO SATURATE WITH SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. IT
WILL BE VERY COLD ALOFT...AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
SNOW. BECAUSE VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS HINTS OF QPF...WE
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 TOMORROW. THE POPS ARE LOW BECAUSE MEASURABLE SNOW IS
UNLIKELY BUT I THINK MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW FLURRIES. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FRIDAY SYSTEM...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS POURS INTO THE REGION. THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS AIRMASS IS VERY COLD WITH CURRENT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL CANADA NEAR 0F. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A
LARGE STATIONARY BOWL SHAPED LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. IS ALSO ONE THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS
HERE...THE EXTENT OF WHICH ARE OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. OUR THERMAL PROFILES WILL DROP TO SOMETHING MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF NORTHERN LATITUDES WITH 500-1000MB THICKNESS
NEAR 530DM ALONG THE RED RIVER TO 540DM IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS THERMAL PROFILE IS GOING TO BE SNOW.

AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE ISSUE IS THAT THERE IS JUST NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH OPEN WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL SNOW WILL
HAVE TO WORK THROUGH A VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 5000 FEET BEFORE IT
CAN REACH THE GROUND. HAVING SAID THAT...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...SNOW GROWTH IS GOING TO OCCUR IN THE FAVORABLE -10C TO
-20C RANGE FOR DENDRITES. AS A RESULT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE ENHANCED
BY FLUFFY...UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS IN
EXCESS OF 10 TO 1. IN COMPARISON THE SNOW TO WATER RATIO THIS
MORNING WAS 5 TO 1...A VERY WET SLUSHY SNOW. GIVEN THE DENSE MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
FREEZING ALL DAY. WHATEVER FALLS WILL STICK TO THE GROUND...AND
FOR THIS FORECAST WE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO A HALF INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TO JUST A DUSTING FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE
AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THESE NUMBERS ARE IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF MEANS.
BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE AMOUNTS CLOSELY IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT DAY GIVEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BRING
TRAVEL IMPACTS AND WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY SYSTEM...
BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50KT DURING THE DAY
AND STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER WILL PROBABLY RESULT
IN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN OFTEN
BRINGS US A LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FOG...BUT WE ARE OFTEN
NOT BELOW FREEZING WHEN IT OCCURS. THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO MODERATE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
AMOUNTS 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL ESSENTIALLY COAT ALL BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN ICE. DRIVERS IN THESE SITUATIONS SEEM TO BE UNAWARE
OF THE DANGER AND VEHICLE WRECKS ARE NUMEROUS. WE STILL HAVE SOME
TIME TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL ICE EVENT PLAY OUT...BUT IT IS ONE
THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL OVER A LARGE AREA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO SPEND ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT
ESSENTIALLY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND END
ANY WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST AS THE OVER RUNNING PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MONDAY
WITH A QUASI STATIONARY COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA KICKS OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SPREADING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
ALL RAIN ENDS. EITHER WAY THE WET PATTERN IS GOOD NEW FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINS OUT OF THIS.

TR.92

&&

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Hey, you all could live in HELLston where we might get 1-2 measurable snows a decade.

The weather largely sucks here year around. If it wasn't an Economic Powerhouse where you can make a nice living, I'd be on the first plane out of here.

[Texas Snowman]

Snow totals for today. Shreveport doesn't have a map up yet but there were several inches of snow that fell in northern Louisiana too (it even snowed at Duck Commander headquarters in Monroe). Pretty good snow event even if the models and warm nose caused gnashing of teeth and great wailing in the I-35 corridor of North Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

Hey, you all could live in HELLston where we might get 1-2 measurable snows a decade.

The weather largely sucks here year around. If it wasn't an Economic Powerhouse where you can make a nice living, I'd be on the first plane out of here.

True, it's very, very rare for snow in Houston. Hurricanes named Ike are far more common than snowstorms by whatever name the Weather Channel is using.

But there was the snow on Christmas Eve 2004.

And there was also that one-time state-record 20-inch snowfall in Houston back in February 1895. Only the Panhandle has beaten that mark!

[davidiowx]

Hey, you all could live in HELLston where we might get 1-2 measurable snows a decade.

The weather largely sucks here year around. If it wasn't an Economic Powerhouse where you can make a nice living, I'd be on the first plane out of here.

Well said. I couldn't agree more lol.