Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tcu101]

Fluffy cotton-balls should you get them. Not as perfect a sounding as last Feb and Superbowl storm but up there. 15:1? 20:1?

Hopeful this is not too stupid of a question but maybe one of y'all can explain.. Looking at that Skew-T what would one look at to see that the snow would be of a "fluffy cotton-ball" type of snow as compared to a more wet snow? I see the whole column of air is below freezing. Is that the main reason? Does the height and depth of the dendritic growth zone play a factor?

[Ntxw]

Hopeful this is not too stupid of a question but maybe one of y'all can explain.. Looking at that Skew-T what would one look at to see that the snow would be of a "fluffy cotton-ball" type of snow as compared to a more wet snow? I see the whole column of air is below freezing. Is that the main reason? Does the height and depth of the dendritic growth zone play a factor?

Ideally the dendritic growth zone is between -10c and -20C. The region where the lines are between those two temps is likely where efficient dendrites (for snow) is made. If you have a fairly large zone then you will make good fluffy snowflakes. The entire column is well below 0C which makes for a fluffy snow to remain.

[Tcu101]

Hopeful this is not too stupid of a question but maybe one of y'all can explain.. Looking at that Skew-T what would one look at to see that the snow would be of a "fluffy cotton-ball" type of snow as compared to a more wet snow? I see the whole column of air is below freezing. Is that the main reason? Does the height and depth of the dendritic growth zone play a factor?

Ideally the dendritic growth zone is between -10c and -20C. The region where the lines are between those two temps is likely where efficient dendrites (for snow) is made. If you have a fairly large zone then you will make good fluffy snowflakes. The entire column is well below 0C which makes for a fluffy snow to remain.

Thank you NTXW

[dhweather]

0Z sounding for FWD - there's still a lot of dry air to overcome.

[TexasF6]

Porta, why is EWX so mysterious and acting like Austin is in for a surprise tomorrow??????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Worst case scenario is 1-2 inches according to the WPC model? RGEM is beautiful with snow first then ice!!!!??? What gives?

[dhweather]

Porta, why is EWX so mysterious and acting like Austin is in for a surprise tomorrow??????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Worst case scenario is 1-2 inches according to the WPC model? RGEM is beautiful with snow first then ice!!!!??? What gives?

Probably warm air advection at higher levels while surface temperatures remain at or near freezing.

[dhweather]

0Z RGEM rolling in, it still thinks there is a chance. Lucy says no, you had your chance yesterday.

[dhweather]

REAL Models don't let models do drugs.

[aggiecutter]

Snowfall totals from yesterday's storm from the NWS in Shreveport:

[SouthernMet]

though RGEM does appear to be an outlier, "drugs" have REALLY been working out for it so far this season.

[orangeblood]

though RGEM does appear to be an outlier, "drugs" have REALLY been working out for it so far this season.

Amounts are still a question mark but one thing appears to be more conclusive...the shortwave is taking direct aim at the metroplex, afternoon commute could be a little dicey, hopefully the school systems are paying attention.

[Portastorm]

Porta, why is EWX so mysterious and acting like Austin is in for a surprise tomorrow??????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Worst case scenario is 1-2 inches according to the WPC model? RGEM is beautiful with snow first then ice!!!!??? What gives?

Seems like they're not too bullish on the event and I can see why. Air column has to moisten a lot and then there needs to be enough isentropic lift to drop precip. There aren't any readily apparent triggers or vortmaxes or even ripples headed our way. Maybe some patchy sleet or freezing drizzle, very light.

I'd love it if the RGEM verified but I have my doubts. Sorry.

[Brent]

though RGEM does appear to be an outlier, "drugs" have REALLY been working out for it so far this season.

Amounts are still a question mark but one thing appears to be more conclusive...the shortwave is taking direct aim at the metroplex, afternoon commute could be a little dicey, hopefully the school systems are paying attention.

It's guaranteed to be snow and it's going to be a dry snow...

Aka, if the QPF amounts are even a few hundredths more it could be easily be a few more inches...

I could easily see nothing happening but at the same time if anything is going to overperform it's this

NBC 5 just said it's had thundersnow with it in New Mexico

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST IN PLACE REGARDING TIMING AND EXACT
LOCATION WHERE SNOW BANDS SET UP FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE DECIDED THAT
CONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
CANNOT RULE SNOW POSSIBLY ENTERING FAR WESTERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB ON TONIGHT/S
FWD SOUNDING TO OVERCOME AND DECIDED IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS OF THE HRRR, WRF, AND NAM MODELS
DO SHOW ABOUT A 1-2 HR SOONER ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR FROM THE DFW METRO AND POINTS NORTH...AS THE BAND SETS UP
IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

AT THIS TIME...THE MORNING RUSH SHOULD BE `OK`...BUT SNOW WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BY 9 AM...IF NOT BETWEEN 8-9 AM IN THE WESTERN METRO
AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DOES SHOW SOME MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS OR SLIGHT SHIFT
NORTH OR SOUTH COULD HAVE QUITE AN EFFECT ON LOCATION...AMOUNTS
AND IMPACTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON FRIDAY.

00Z MODELS ARE JUST NOW FLOWING IN...SO WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT
FORECASTERS TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION...AMOUNTS AND
IMPACTS WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

[TheProfessor]

Leaving it for the next shift to handle lol.

[utweather]

:uarrow: Leaving it for the next shift to handle lol.

Looks pretty potent with my non computer model eyes.
Even lots of flurries will look like major snow down here.
I need the disturbance to keep spinning southeast some more..

[Brent]

* ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

That's new.

I even screenshotted the 4pm version and it didn't say 3 inches.

[Brent]

[Texas Snowman]

* ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

That's new.

I even screenshotted the 4pm version and it didn't say 3 inches.

Yup, and this too:

THIS SYSTEM DOES SHOW SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS OR SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD HAVE QUITE AN EFFECT ON LOCATION...AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON FRIDAY.

[Texas Snowman]

Hmm, I don't remember seeing two to four inches forecast for the areas to the west and northwest of the D/FW Metroplex.

Maybe I missed that earlier this evening, but I think perhaps this graphic is new?