HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021815-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1202 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A CHANCE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...THEN ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
Texas Winter 2014-2015
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
12z GFS shows 2" of snow for Austin. I want to believe ... 
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Euro kind of backed away on the totals
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:12z GFS shows 2" of snow for Austin. I want to believe ...
I do too...
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Portastorm
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I debated whether or not to share this info because I didn't want to get hopes up too high ... and plus, I've been such bad luck this "winter" LOL ... but what the heck.
A buddy of mine (not wxman57) who runs his own private weather forecasting firm and who I have found to be pretty accurate most times ... told me today that they're seriously considering issuing a Winter Storm Watch for their clients in the general Austin metro area for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. They see dangerous accumulations of ice turning into a sleet/snow mix on top before it all would end. Could be quite a nasty deal if that were to verify.
Granted this all could change -- and it probably will -- but based on current guidance and what these forecasters (these guys forecast for payment so they need to be right as often as possible or they're looking for work) are seeing, some of us could hit the winter jackpot later this week.
There. Now that I've written it, I'm sure I jinxed it for everyone.
A buddy of mine (not wxman57) who runs his own private weather forecasting firm and who I have found to be pretty accurate most times ... told me today that they're seriously considering issuing a Winter Storm Watch for their clients in the general Austin metro area for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. They see dangerous accumulations of ice turning into a sleet/snow mix on top before it all would end. Could be quite a nasty deal if that were to verify.
Granted this all could change -- and it probably will -- but based on current guidance and what these forecasters (these guys forecast for payment so they need to be right as often as possible or they're looking for work) are seeing, some of us could hit the winter jackpot later this week.
There. Now that I've written it, I'm sure I jinxed it for everyone.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re:
Portastorm wrote:I debated whether or not to share this info because I didn't want to get hopes up too high ... and plus, I've been such bad luck this "winter" LOL ... but what the heck.
A buddy of mine (not wxman57) who runs his own private weather forecasting firm and who I have found to be pretty accurate most times ... told me today that they're seriously considering issuing a Winter Storm Watch for their clients in the general Austin metro area for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. They see dangerous accumulations of ice turning into a sleet/snow mix on top before it all would end. Could be quite a nasty deal if that were to verify.
Granted this all could change -- and it probably will -- but based on current guidance and what these forecasters (these guys forecast for payment so they need to be right as often as possible or they're looking for work) are seeing, some of us could hit the winter jackpot later this week.
There. Now that I've written it, I'm sure I jinxed it for everyone.
I'm still amazed the GFS has wintry precip for the ENTIRE state of Mississippi. Just south of Memphis down to Gulfport, and all points in between.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:12z GFS shows 2" of snow for Austin. I want to believe ...
I'm sending every bit of snow karma I have your way. The jovial mets at the PWC DESERVE some wintry precip, in the form of SNOW.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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CentralTxAggie
- Tropical Depression
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- Location: TX
Re:
Portastorm wrote:I debated whether or not to share this info because I didn't want to get hopes up too high ... and plus, I've been such bad luck this "winter" LOL ... but what the heck.
A buddy of mine (not wxman57) who runs his own private weather forecasting firm and who I have found to be pretty accurate most times ... told me today that they're seriously considering issuing a Winter Storm Watch for their clients in the general Austin metro area for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. They see dangerous accumulations of ice turning into a sleet/snow mix on top before it all would end. Could be quite a nasty deal if that were to verify.
Granted this all could change -- and it probably will -- but based on current guidance and what these forecasters (these guys forecast for payment so they need to be right as often as possible or they're looking for work) are seeing, some of us could hit the winter jackpot later this week.
There. Now that I've written it, I'm sure I jinxed it for everyone.
Well I won't be upset if you're/they're not on point with the ICE forecast.
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No forecasts from this lurker, but I will tell you what is going on outside my window. 
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TXdaddy217
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Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week (Sorry Portastorm, I know you are aching for some). Hopefully we can get some to everybody before the season ends.
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
(Sorry Portastorm, I know you are aching for some). Hopefully we can get some to everybody before the season ends. Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
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I am not a meteorologist. Anything posted by me should not be taken as an official forecast. Get your information from respected sources such as NWS and NOAA. I get my weather information the same way Hank Hill does ..... I look out the window and say ... "YUP".
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South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4227
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re:
TXdaddy217 wrote:Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
Welcome to Storm2K!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:12z GFS shows 2" of snow for Austin. I want to believe ...
I don't even know what to say. Trying not to get my hopes up only to see more 33 and rain, but at the same time timing my errands so they'll be done before then.
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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Re:
TXdaddy217 wrote:Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
Welcome to Storm2k and thanks for posting. While I appreciate the support for me and my fellow Austin area peeps, no one here should ever feel guilty about celebrating and sharing your winter weather. So you enjoy it!
BTW, I really like Abilene (some call it "lean-town" right?). Nice town.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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CentralTxAggie
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:03 am
- Location: TX
Re:
TXdaddy217 wrote:Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
Howdy TxDaddy!
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No forecasts from this lurker, but I will tell you what is going on outside my window.
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Tcu101
- Tropical Storm
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Re:
TXdaddy217 wrote:Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
When I think of Abilene I think of Ranger Hill between Fort Worth and Abilene on I-20. It's a very steep grade for a long distance and a Mecca for freeway shutdowns during winter weather . A few years ago I got stuck on the top side from a big snow storm and it was so icy nobody could go down the 6 or 7% grade . Set there for 9 hours until the National Gaurd was deployed and got things going again . People were running out of gas , was a mess....
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
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- Location: Denison, Texas
So I noticed that the Weather Channel has named this storm (mid-week) Thor.
So it's Thor that's going to bring the winter weather hammer to ATX, huh?
So it's Thor that's going to bring the winter weather hammer to ATX, huh?
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Now I don't know if EWX knows what to think about mid-week they only say, "....BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS."
My point forecast for my neighborhood says for Wed night, "Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30...."
30 degrees and only rain?
Edit: Ok now they changed Wed night and Thur to rain showers, snow and sleet, makes more sense.
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS."
My point forecast for my neighborhood says for Wed night, "Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30...."
30 degrees and only rain?
Edit: Ok now they changed Wed night and Thur to rain showers, snow and sleet, makes more sense.
Last edited by ndale on Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Any opinions stated are those of an amateur, please take with several grains of salt and for official forecast refer to the National Weather Service.
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:12z GFS shows 2" of snow for Austin. I want to believe ...
Austin is right on the edge of the snow line, Portastorm. ECMWF has you in the "trace" of snow area. I'm afraid Lucy will probably win, but there's a chance...
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Texas Snowman
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- Location: Denison, Texas
We're at 36 right now, wind back out of the north. Norman NWS says that light icing possible tonight around Wichita Falls and on the north side of the Red River in southern Oklahoma...
-----
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
OKZ032-037-039>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020400-
HUGHES-TILLMAN-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...FREDERICK...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAURIKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL...DURANT...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...
MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WEAK LIFT OCCURS AND TEMPERATURES FALL
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO A THIN GLAZE OF ICE
ON VEHICLES...UNTREATED ROADS...AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM MONDAY...RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN
GREATER ICE AMOUNTS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS BY MONITORING OUR WEB
PAGE...AND FOLLOWING US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
$$
AUSTIN
-----
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
OKZ032-037-039>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020400-
HUGHES-TILLMAN-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...FREDERICK...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...WALTERS...WAURIKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL...DURANT...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...
MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WEAK LIFT OCCURS AND TEMPERATURES FALL
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO A THIN GLAZE OF ICE
ON VEHICLES...UNTREATED ROADS...AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM MONDAY...RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN
GREATER ICE AMOUNTS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS BY MONITORING OUR WEB
PAGE...AND FOLLOWING US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.
$$
AUSTIN
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
.6" of freezing rain and 30 MPH winds for KAUS per the 12Z GFS. That's nasty.
I have a short international trip (Tue-Sat). I'm seriously considering postponing it. I don't want my wife dealing with a power outage alone.
[not an official forecast]
I have a short international trip (Tue-Sat). I'm seriously considering postponing it. I don't want my wife dealing with a power outage alone.
[not an official forecast]
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TXdaddy217
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- Location: Abilene,TX
Re: Re:
Portastorm wrote:TXdaddy217 wrote:Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.
Welcome to Storm2k and thanks for posting. While I appreciate the support for me and my fellow Austin area peeps, no one here should ever feel guilty about celebrating and sharing your winter weather. So you enjoy it!
BTW, I really like Abilene (some call it "lean-town" right?). Nice town.
Thank you for the welcome Portastorm. Yes Abilene is a pretty good town. We do see quite a few winter weather events here, so that is good.
Never have heard it called "Lean-Town". They call us the Key City, All America City and some even go as far as to call it A-Town
.
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I am not a meteorologist. Anything posted by me should not be taken as an official forecast. Get your information from respected sources such as NWS and NOAA. I get my weather information the same way Hank Hill does ..... I look out the window and say ... "YUP".
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