Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TXdaddy217]

Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week (Sorry Portastorm, I know you are aching for some). Hopefully we can get some to everybody before the season ends.
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.

When I think of Abilene I think of Ranger Hill between Fort Worth and Abilene on I-20. It's a very steep grade for a long distance and a Mecca for freeway shutdowns during winter weather . A few years ago I got stuck on the top side from a big snow storm and it was so icy nobody could go down the 6 or 7% grade . Set there for 9 hours until the National Gaurd was deployed and got things going again . People were running out of gas , was a mess....

I don't know about I35 or I10, but I can tell you that during the winter I20 blows. It always gets impassable and closed. Thank goodness I rarely ever need to use it.

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS afternoon forecast discussion:

000
FXUS64 KFWD 012155
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHALLOW...COLD AIR REMAINING AT
THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE ARCTIC AIR.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE TEMPS MAY COOL BACK DOWN TO 32 DEGREES FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER DARK. EVEN IF TEMPS DO COOL TO 32 DEGREES NO
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL SEE A SLOW WARM UP AS MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER FINALLY
MELTS AND SOME WEAK SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST. THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
THE GULF FULLY OPENS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND EVEN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG ALONG WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK EVEN THOUGH SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. SOME MIDDLE 70S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE WEST DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A PASSING PREFRONTAL TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WERE INDICATING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ISOLATED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CAPE SHOULD BE A BIT
HIGHER.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND BRING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTH WINDS. THINGS SHOULD GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASES. WE EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS ALL ZONES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM NOSE
DISAPPEARS AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES BEGINS TO SATURATE.

IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE AMOUNT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM OR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WHAT WE DO
KNOW IS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE COMING A BIT MORE IN
ALIGNMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE BEST LIFT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT(IE. HOW COLD IT WILL GET) AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TOO PUT A
SLEET/SNOW AMOUNT WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE SINCE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET WHEN
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS. ONE THING THAT IS A BIT CONCERNING IS
THAT THE MODELS DO TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR AND
FOR THAT REASON I HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT OUTLOOK THIS POTENTIAL STORM
YET BUT AWAIT MORE RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSENSUS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER EVENT IN BOTH THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICALLY.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS BUT WE WILL LINGER SOME LIGHT
WINTER PRECIP OR A MIX IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY SOME ON THURSDAY WITH THE RETURN OF THE SUN. OUR FORECAST
MAY BE TOO WARM THURSDAY IF THE FEED OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY.
ALSO...WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER THAT ANY TYPE OF SNOW COVER WOULD
ALSO AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. EVEN IF TEMPS DO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY...THEY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD REFREEZE ANY RESIDUAL WATER.

THE EXTENDED MODELS KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES.

79

[CentralTxAggie]

NWS Forecast for my part of town.

Wednesday Night - A chance of rain showers, snow, and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday - A chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

And then they changed it to...odd.
Wednesday Night - A chance of rain showers, snow, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday - A slight chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. North northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Brent]

That FWD discussion certainly seemed like they are concerned and think a big event is entirely realistic

[gpsnowman]

Are the models not cooperating or is it just a slow Sunday for everyone?

[aggiecutter]

12z GFS shows 2" of snow for Austin. I want to believe ...

Austin is right on the edge of the snow line, Portastorm. ECMWF has you in the "trace" of snow area. I'm afraid Lucy will probably win, but there's a chance...

I agree. There is no way it will snow in Austin.

[Brent]

Are the models not cooperating or is it just a slow Sunday for everyone?

I think people are just burnt out after this last week and need a break. I'd expect hype about Wednesday to begin tomorrow

[TexasF6]

It will snow in Austin. Mark my words.

[TXdaddy217]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=sjt&gc=2

Looks like things are going to get interesting.

[aggiecutter]

It will snow in Austin. Mark my words.

There is a better chance of finding a Bigfoot than it snowing in Austin.

[Texas Snowman]

Awfully confident forecast there.

If I learned anything this past week, it's never to say never. One way or the other. Saw the models under forecast, over forecast and swing and miss on storm track and the location of the worst conditions.

Until we get a little closer to Wednesday/Thursday, I wouldn't go all in on any outcome just yet.

My .02 cents worth.

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting map that Jim Cantore just tweeted.

Ought to get some folks worked up in a few parts of Texas.

[dhweather]

Hey Everyone. New member here .... Thank You vbhoutex for all of your help. I am in Abilene and hope to give all the information I can about what is happening in this part of Texas. We enjoyed 4 inches of snow this past week (Sorry Portastorm, I know you are aching for some). Hopefully we can get some to everybody before the season ends.
Anyways, you all rock and I look forward to getting to know all of you and spread some winter cheer to all of Texas.

Welcome!

[dhweather]

I think FWD is being their conservative selves, and will probably wait until the 12Z tomorrow before doing anything. If two more runs show consistency, then they probably go with a winter weather advisory, maybe a WS watch

[Texas Snowman]

Could be a significant ice storm looming...

[TexasF6]

It will snow in Austin. Mark my words.

There is a better chance of finding a Bigfoot than it snowing in Austin.

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/Bigfoot-27804_zpslvbqq8mx.jpg

Bigfoot huh? That's like saying aggie can beat UT in football. I like my odds.

[TheProfessor]

I think FWD is being their conservative selves, and will probably wait until the 12Z tomorrow before doing anything. If two more runs show consistency, then they probably go with a winter weather advisory, maybe a WS watch

A Ws watch would come before an advisory from that many hours out most likely, then as the event get closer they will determine whether or not to issued advisories or warnings.

[Ntxw]

I'm not liking too much that the Ukmet and CMC, and Euro trended lesser impacts. Hopefully we can trend back the other way so that Portastorm can get some snow. Not yet in range of the shorter guidance.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Are the models not cooperating or is it just a slow Sunday for everyone?

Don't think they are cooperating. At least over here in SE LA according to the nws they aren't. Our office was blahsay as usual. Guess because they have been burned by the gfs so many times this winter already. They are going with the euro which I guess shows much of nothing for us by the time the cold air gets here. Haven't seen it at all today so have no idea what it shows.

[Texas Snowman]

From Joe Bastardi:

@BigJoeBastardi: Last year Atl, this year DFW. Big D NOT DONE YET midweek snow and cold real possibility. Denver was slammed too. Wasnt kidding 2 WEEK AGO!