Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Models keep trending drier, whether it's the correct trend remains to be seen:

This is for snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Based on what is actually going on in the SW and NW Mexico this storm looks plenty wet.

[Brent]

Models keep trending drier, whether it's the correct trend remains to be seen:

This is for snow.

Yes but it includes ice and the other day Texas was covered, remember those feet totals? lol

I'm not at all convinced it's correct though. Storm does look awfully wet.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

@RyanMaue: Interesting, ECMWF develops tropical storm in western Gulf & heads it north into Louisiana -- 8-10 days http://t.co/3XvyDXmO5l





CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!

Wow just when I didn't think the models could get any worse for us this winter

[downsouthman1]

Models keep trending drier, whether it's the correct trend remains to be seen:

This is for snow.

Yes but it includes ice and the other day Texas was covered, remember those feet totals? lol

I'm not at all convinced it's correct though. Storm does look awfully wet.

It does not include ice. The ice would be under the model QPF. It can't be easily deciphered. If you want to see FRZR, use http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

[SouthernMet]

On the not-so-plus side, it sure would be nice to see some kind of public statement issued like NWSFO Fort Worth is doing to at least alert the public that a major winter event may be on the horizon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-031100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART
400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 9 PM WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT CONTINUES NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE WILL FALL
IN THE FORM OF A SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW MIXTURE.
AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING ICE WITH IMPACTS. RESIDENTS AND
ANY VISITORS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
THE FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR ANY CHANGES.

[weatherdude1108]

My bad You have a good eye. They must have changed the wording of the forecast. It originally said 50% chance of sleet with thunder possible. Don't really need that anyways with I-20 being such an obstacle course in winter weather. [/quote]You could be right. I see the wording on those things change periodically throughout the day anyway. I believe they're somewhat automated based on some kind of feed.[/quote]

Yeah, I have seen that too. I've seen the wording change, at times, within five minutes after looking at it.

[Brent]

@RyanMaue: Interesting, ECMWF develops tropical storm in western Gulf & heads it north into Louisiana -- 8-10 days http://t.co/3XvyDXmO5l





CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!

Wow just when I didn't think the models could get any worse for us this winter

My favorite moment is when Michael Ventrice posts about some convective wave making it unlikely something forms...

How about the fact it is, I don't know... March???

[Brent]

It does not include ice. The ice would be under the model QPF. It can't be easily deciphered. If you want to see FRZR, use http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

Really? I always thought it included ice because it's certainly always overdone on snowfall totals. My bad.

[weatherdude1108]

On the not-so-plus side, it sure would be nice to see some kind of public statement issued like NWSFO Fort Worth is doing to at least alert the public that a major winter event may be on the horizon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-031100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART
400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 9 PM WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT CONTINUES NORTH OF THE FREEZING LINE WILL FALL
IN THE FORM OF A SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW MIXTURE.
AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING ICE WITH IMPACTS. RESIDENTS AND
ANY VISITORS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
THE FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR ANY CHANGES.

Well how about that? They must have taken pointers from the PWC office.

[Portastorm]

How about that?!

Good move, EWX. Your colleagues at the PWC applaud your actions in alerting the public. Now, it's time to gas up Champ the Charger and stock up on Grey Goose supplies.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

How about that?!

Good move, EWX. Your colleagues at the PWC applaud your actions in alerting the public. Now, it's time to gas up Champ the Charger and stock up on Grey Goose supplies.

The PWC mets will go ape crazy with wintry precip.

[dhweather]

18Z RGEM - getting close to the window of opportunity.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the RGEM is much wetter than the 18z GFS, but it also has the front a lot further north at 48 hours than the GFS.

[Brent]

The GFS yesterday, clearly it's trending away from something, I'm not saying it's right, I'm just posting what it's showing:

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is a drying trend post frontal. The model camps are in the trend of positive tilt and northern stream dominant. They need to trend the other way with southern vort coming out faster or this will go Arkansas and NE or just rain then cold air shuts off precip.

[Brent]

18z GFS is a drying trend post frontal. The model camps are in the trend of positive tilt and northern stream dominant. They need to trend the other way or this will go Arkansas and NE.

That's what I'm saying... all the global models have been trending that way...

I'm not saying they are right but it's worth considering since they all are doing it.

[SouthernMet]

18z GFS & RGEM are identical 48 hours out.

But the gfs moves towards other models, much drier post frontal.

[TheProfessor]

Temperature wise they are not, The RGEM is 10 degrees warmer for Dallas at that time. That would make a huge difference on whether or not we see sleet/ice.

[dhweather]

If only the 18Z GFS were right........


16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 7.51 " and Convective: 2.37 "