Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

The models seem to be coming into agreement on a fairly significant storm though likely not something that will shut places down for multiple days. Thursday morning looks to be when travel will be at its worst for a large portion of the state.

[Texas Snowman]

As long as PORTASTORM and the ATX gang get in on the fun, might be a fun couple of days for Texas winter weather enthusiasts!

[dhweather]

It looks like most model guidance does not have the metroplex reaching freezing until late afternoon / early evening, 6-9PM.

Which makes the question even bigger - are the models going to be late with the cold air arriving, as they normally are? That will have significant impacts on how this plays out.

[Brent]

46 and raining here...

Yeah I don't think we're getting close to 70 today.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

46 and raining here...

Yeah I don't think we're getting close to 70 today.

Looking out my window in Addison, I'm not sure how we are getting to the low 60's as forecast. Mid 40's with fog and mist.

[Tireman4]

As long as PORTASTORM and the ATX gang get in on the fun, might be a fun couple of days for Texas winter weather enthusiasts!

And the H-Town gang? LOL

[Ralph's Weather]

It looks like most model guidance does not have the metroplex reaching freezing until late afternoon / early evening, 6-9PM.

Which makes the question even bigger - are the models going to be late with the cold air arriving, as they normally are? That will have significant impacts on how this plays out.

I agree with the concern for the freezing like to advance south quicker than forecasted especially as this front is coming down the plains so it will not slow as much as previous fronts that have come out of the Midwest. In the Metroplex I could see freezing rain beginning in time to cause issues with the afternoon rush hour tomorrow and maybe as early as the early afternoon. Freezing rain may even begin by evening in my area though the current forecast is for after midnight.

[Brent]

46 and raining here...

Yeah I don't think we're getting close to 70 today.

Looking out my window in Addison, I'm not sure how we are getting to the low 60's as forecast. Mid 40's with fog and mist.

Yeah 60 would surprise me at this point.

and more generally arctic fronts seem to always move faster than progged. The one last Sunday did that's for sure.

Timing is really tricky because a few hours earlier and evening rush hour will be a disaster and a half.

[weatherdude1108]

12z** RGEM definitely is cold enough for Austin...

RGEM shows intense convective thundersleet & thundersnow from 9pm-midnight in west & central texas.

Looks plausible imo.

Just saw that run ... be still my beating heart ... thundersleet in Austin? I haven't seen that since the early 2000s (2002 or 2003, can't remember exactly).

I have never seen thundersleet/snow! If it were in the 70s, I am guessing this would be a MCS? I am looking forward to it!

[Brent]

Another thing to think about.. the more accumulation we get the colder Thursday will be. The GFS had 40s last night when it had nothing, now it has 34 at DFW for the high.

[downsouthman1]

12z** RGEM definitely is cold enough for Austin...

RGEM shows intense convective thundersleet & thundersnow from 9pm-midnight in west & central texas.

Looks plausible imo.

Just saw that run ... be still my beating heart ... thundersleet in Austin? I haven't seen that since the early 2000s (2002 or 2003, can't remember exactly).

I have never seen thundersleet/snow! If it were in the 70s, I am guessing this would be a MCS? I am looking forward to it!

Exactly. That's what we need essentially is a line of convection to come through with the atmospheric temperature profiles below freezing in a large part of the moisture axis.

[TheProfessor]

plus the low of 23 on Wednesday night will freeze any left over moisture on the roads.

[Ralph's Weather]

Another thing to think about.. the more accumulation we get the colder Thursday will be. The GFS had 40s last night when it had nothing, now it has 34 at DFW for the high.

Yep, DFW will struggle to reach freezing on Thursday as will most of the state that receives sleet or snow. Travel looks like it will be tricky starting tomorrow afternoon in North Texas and spreading SE into tomorrow night. If we get some sun on Thursday roads should start improving by midday especially in Central and East Texas, but there will likely be remaining icy spots into Friday especially across North Texas.

[dhweather]

It looks like most model guidance does not have the metroplex reaching freezing until late afternoon / early evening, 6-9PM.

Which makes the question even bigger - are the models going to be late with the cold air arriving, as they normally are? That will have significant impacts on how this plays out.

I agree with the concern for the freezing like to advance south quicker than forecasted especially as this front is coming down the plains so it will not slow as much as previous fronts that have come out of the Midwest. In the Metroplex I could see freezing rain beginning in time to cause issues with the afternoon rush hour tomorrow and maybe as early as the early afternoon. Freezing rain may even begin by evening in my area though the current forecast is for after midnight.

Good, it's not just me!

[TheProfessor]

I'm supposed to fly out Thursday to Ohio, I'm afraid it might be canceled.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just saw a tweet by WSI energy that the MJO is looking interesting again over the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/5 ... 3704960001

[Ntxw]

Just saw a tweet by WSI energy that the MJO is looking interesting again over the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/5 ... 3704960001

Strong westerly wind burst. Its giving our soon to be official El Nino a boost for spring.

[downsouthman1]

If you look at this & set it up so that it's rock, max animation speed, thunderstorm color curve enhancement, you can actually see the front racing down the plains entering northern OK. It will be well ahead of the shortwave, visible just off the Baja coast. What the arctic front is doing in Kansas is generating precip behind it.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[gboudx]

Where's the warm front that was supposed to lift thru DFW today? Still in low 40's with light rain.

[downsouthman1]

Where's the warm front that was supposed to lift thru DFW today? Still in low 40's with light rain.

It's there, along the Gulf coast up to just south of BCS to Lufkin. The problem is it's not moving fast.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw