Texas Winter 2014-2015

[WacoWx]

I'm supposed to fly out Thursday to Ohio, I'm afraid it might be canceled.

Same here. 7:00 on Thursday to Vegas for my bachelor party.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro = 12Z RGEM, potential for greater than 0.4 inch qpf in sub-freezing air. Time for FW NWS to consider hoisting Winter Storm Warnings for a fairly large area in North Texas!! Please don't drop the ball like last week, fortunately most of the kids will be out of school by the time the storm hits

[downsouthman1]

12Z Euro = 12Z RGEM, potential for greater than 0.4 inch qpf in sub-freezing air. Time for FW NWS to consider hoisting Winter Storm Warnings for a fairly large area in North Texas!!

I presume they are in panic mode because of that. They haven't posted an update to the AFD since 606AM CST.

[Ralph's Weather]

I would keep an eye out for more mischief through early next week as there looks to be energy that hangs back and it sends off waves our direction until it finally moves on out sometime this weekend or even into next week. It is the same type situation we had last week where models want to warm us up, but with energy sitting over the SW that will be a slow process. The Canadian and other models to a lesser extent want to develop a Gulf low early next week. If that happens we will have to watch to see how much warm air moves in before it develops.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, models are trending back to a high impact event for west, nw, north, and northeast Texas. Central Texas is about timing, system is quite large. If holds conditions deteriorate tomorrow evening and through the night.

[Brent]

Well well well isn't that a trend...

As I sit here in my car at work and its raining at 47 degrees, were that much closer to freezing the less it warms up...

[ndale]

Regarding thunder and lightning with snow or sleet I have only experienced it once before when I lived in Kerrville and that storm produced several inches of snow.

[hriverajr]

Cold front already approaching Oklahoma panhandle, although coldest air lagging a bit. In fact looks like it is coming right down the lee side of the rockies.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, models are trending back to a high impact event for west, nw, north, and northeast Texas. Central Texas is about timing, system is quite large. If holds conditions deteriorate tomorrow evening and through the night.

Have you seen the 12z GFS, several latest SREF rubs as well as the RGEM and Euro? They all suggest a significant and possibly substantial winter weather event in central and south central Texas.

There's a lack of consensus folks between the PWC North Texas branch and PWC HQ.

[hriverajr]

Regarding thunder and lightning with snow or sleet I have only experienced it once before when I lived in Kerrville and that storm produced several inches of snow.

I have experienced thundersleet before in my youth. The thunder sounds amazing.

[Stormcenter]

Can someone please posts some images of the latest model runs? Thanks in advance!

[orangeblood]

Yeah, models are trending back to a high impact event for west, nw, north, and northeast Texas. Central Texas is about timing, system is quite large. If holds conditions deteriorate tomorrow evening and through the night.

Have you seen the 12z GFS, several latest SREF rubs as well as the RGEM and Euro? They all suggest a significant and possibly substantial winter weather event in central and south central Texas.

There's a lack of consensus folks between the PWC North Texas branch and PWC HQ.

Just doesn't appear lIke temps will get cold enough south of Waco to become too impactful...most models have 30-32, need sub 30 F to cause major havoc, particularly with temps approaching 60 F early in the day.

[Tireman4]

I'm supposed to fly out Thursday to Ohio, I'm afraid it might be canceled.

Same here. 7:00 on Thursday to Vegas for my bachelor party.

Congrats. Woo Hoo

[Tireman4]

Regarding thunder and lightning with snow or sleet I have only experienced it once before when I lived in Kerrville and that storm produced several inches of snow.

I have experienced thundersleet before in my youth. The thunder sounds amazing.

You make it sound like you are older than the hills sir...LOL

[ndale]

Yeah, models are trending back to a high impact event for west, nw, north, and northeast Texas. Central Texas is about timing, system is quite large. If holds conditions deteriorate tomorrow evening and through the night.

Have you seen the 12z GFS, several latest SREF rubs as well as the RGEM and Euro? They all suggest a significant and possibly substantial winter weather event in central and south central Texas.

There's a lack of consensus folks between the PWC North Texas branch and PWC HQ.

Just doesn't appear lIke temps will get cold enough south of Waco to become too impactful...most models have 30-32, need sub 30 F to cause major havoc, particularly with temps approaching 60 F early in the day.

Not sure I trust the models on temps here, they have predicted higher temps all week than we have actually run. My forecast says by 2pm I should be at 60 degrees, better hurry I am at 50 now and temps are slow to rise today.

[dhweather]

Regarding thunder and lightning with snow or sleet I have only experienced it once before when I lived in Kerrville and that storm produced several inches of snow.

I have experienced thundersleet before in my youth. The thunder sounds amazing.

My last time to hear it was the December 2013 event, it woke me up. A few minutes later, we lost electricity for two days and change.

[dhweather]

FWD sticking with 60's today

[hriverajr]

Regarding thunder and lightning with snow or sleet I have only experienced it once before when I lived in Kerrville and that storm produced several inches of snow.

I have experienced thundersleet before in my youth. The thunder sounds amazing.

You make it sound like you are older than the hills sir...LOL

Well not quite as old as 57 , suspect I am a bit older than Porta hahaha

[Yukon Cornelius]

From some of the things I have seen and read it looks like the area up here might be impacted pretty good with this winter storm. I've been pretty much writing it off, I may need to rethink.

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
FRONT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 13Z AND
BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z IN WACO. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...
ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING OR BELOW.