Texas Winter 2014-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Here's EWX's statement:

WWUS84 KEWX 032116
SPSEWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>208-040800-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART
316 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD
ADVANCE SOUTH TO NEAR A DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS
LINE...AND A FEW SNOW FLURRIES COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ICE
ACCUMULATION WITH ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO
1/10 INCH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON
THURSDAY...AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

THOSE RESIDING IN OR VISITING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: looking at Norman's forecasts for it's Southern counties, I'm surprised FWD isn't issuing Winter Storm Warnings for are most Northern counties because that would definitely fit the criteria.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a WSW issued for D/FW northward by tomorrow afternoon. Front is faster than models show and the on set of winter precip may be earlier than first forecasted.

[Portastorm]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

[Tireman4]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Oh, we would not want that...LOL. But the PWC could comment...

[downsouthman1]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Oh, we would not want that...LOL. But the PWC could comment...

I would like to see the PWC's comment

[Brandon8181]

I agree. I don't think it would break any kind of rules if we were able to get an official statement from the PWC...I mean...It couldn't be just something basic..I would have to be an official issued statement. I would love to hear the what the PWC thinks about the NWS thoughts for the Austin area, and then what the PWC thinks will happen there, and elsewhere

[Portastorm]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Oh, we would not want that...LOL. But the PWC could comment...

The monkeys working hard at the PWC think the Austin area will see AT LEAST 0.05" of freezing rain but likely more than that ... followed by possibly a half inch of sleet on top of the ice ... probably starting just after midnight Wednesday and lasting until early afternoon. Thundersleet a definite possibility in the early morning hours Thursday. They also tell me they think the town will be pretty much shut down Thursday. That's what THEY are saying.

[Brandon8181]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Oh, we would not want that...LOL. But the PWC could comment...

The monkeys working hard at the PWC think the Austin area will see AT LEAST 0.05" of freezing rain but likely more than that ... followed by possibly a half inch of sleet on top of the ice ... probably starting just after midnight Wednesday and lasting until early afternoon. Thundersleet a definite possibility in the early morning hours Thursday. They also tell me they think the town will be pretty much shut down Thursday. That's what THEY are saying.

So the monkeys have no comments about why the NWS / Austin area think otherwise?

[Tcu101]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Thats so funny you said that because when you posted earlier a warning about that I said to myself " Now thats a bit pot calling the kettle black " ...

[downsouthman1]

Wow it's so crazy that the shortwave is still digging.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

[Portastorm]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Thats so funny you said that because when you posted earlier a warning about that I said to myself " Now thats a bit pot calling the kettle black " ...

See?! I didn't do it ... did I?!

But I understand the sentiment when folks WANT to post comments like that. Boy do I understand.

[TheProfessor]

I don't think we are going to reach 65 here today. And if the Cold front beats the warm front here, then that high of 46 tomorrow will likely be at midnight.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z models still coming in, but looks like there will be a line of heavy precip in the cold air. The models are currently showing it outracing the sub freezing air except in North Texas, but it would be very close.
Looks like the 18Z RGEM has the cold air moving in faster so it would all be frozen behind the front.

[SouthernMet]

i feel you Porta.

[Brandon8181]

So I just refreshed my weather service outlook and they just updated that COMPLETELY TOOK all winter precip out of the forecast for Flint, TX near Tyler, TX.... wonder why?

I wonder if its a fluke.... I know sometime when i refresh my screen it shows weird stuff that just a bit later goes back to its previous forecast...

Its just weird because within the last hour it called for 90% winter mix wed night, and 70% sleet snow on Thu Morning. Strange...

Thoughts?

[weatherdude1108]

I'm not making any comments on the EWX AFD and Special Weather Statement. If I do, I'll break S2K rules and lose my high-paying moderator job here.

Thats so funny you said that because when you posted earlier a warning about that I said to myself " Now thats a bit pot calling the kettle black " ...

See?! I didn't do it ... did I?!

But I understand the sentiment when folks WANT to post comments like that. Boy do I understand.

I agree. But, the EWX just got some upgrades and had to send some forecasters to CRP temporarily. So they may need to tweak some bugs in the system to get it more accurate.

[Ralph's Weather]

So I just refreshed my weather service outlook and they just updated that COMPLETELY TOOK all winter precip out of the forecast for Flint, TX near Tyler, TX.... wonder why?

I wonder if its a fluke.... I know sometime when i refresh my screen it shows weird stuff that just a bit later goes back to its previous forecast...

Its just weird because within the last hour it called for 90% winter mix wed night, and 70% sleet snow on Thu Morning. Strange...

Thoughts?

It is looking like we will have a line of storms move through tomorrow night with temps below freezing which could result in a quick 1-2" of sleet with some light snow lasting into Thursday morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z RGEM looks like heavy sleet with snow on the north of I-30 in the Metroplex around midnight and heavy freezing rain around Austin at the same time and heavy sleet with snow north of I-30 in Northeast Texas in the early morning hours. Amounts are 1-3" of snow north of a line from Texarkana to Midland, around 1" of sleet from San Angelo to just south of Texarkana and .25-.5" of freezing rain from Kerrville to south of Tyler.

[downsouthman1]

18Z RGEM looks like heavy sleet with snow on the north of I-30 in the Metroplex around midnight and heavy freezing rain around Austin at the same time and heavy sleet with snow north of I-30 in Northeast Texas in the early morning hours. Amounts are 1-3" of snow north of a line from Texarkana to Midland, around 1" of sleet from San Angelo to just south of Texarkana and .25-.5" of freezing rain from Kerrville to south of Tyler.

Wow. I just looked. Pretty impressive storm if that verifies.