Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

18Z RGEM looks like heavy sleet with snow on the north of I-30 in the Metroplex around midnight and heavy freezing rain around Austin at the same time and heavy sleet with snow north of I-30 in Northeast Texas in the early morning hours. Amounts are 1-3" of snow north of a line from Texarkana to Midland, around 1" of sleet from San Angelo to just south of Texarkana and .25-.5" of freezing rain from Kerrville to south of Tyler.

Wow. I just looked. Pretty impressive storm if that verifies.

RGEM has been champ 24 hours out. The scenario it's showing right now looks very plausible to what I've been saying since day 1.

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone follow the RGEM before these recent storms? Has it always been this good? I remember it overdid the New Year's Eve ice storm that ended up just being rain for most. I do not recall looking at it before that storm. It is strange for the Canadian model to be the best.

[SouthernMet]

It's been posted about 2 or 3 dozen times the last week or so, yes the RGEM has been perfect handling the last few systems.

[Tireman4]

Can anyone post the RGEM 18z?

[SouthernMet]

Can anyone post the RGEM 18z?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_12.png

[dhweather]

Hey, we are up to 49 in Heath - 65-70 can't be far off, huh?

[dhweather]

[dhweather]

18Z GFS

[hriverajr]

Wow it's so crazy that the shortwave is still digging.

Yes it is...

[iorange55]

This is beginning to remind me of a storm we had several years ago. Early 2000s, I think? I remember it had the heaviest sleet. It felt like being in the middle of a spring thunderstorm, except everything was frozen.

After looking at those maps above, it looks like this event could be similar.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is beginning to remind me of a storm we had several years ago. Early 2000s, I think? I remember it had the heaviest sleet. It felt like being in the middle of a spring thunderstorm, except everything was frozen.

After looking at those maps above, it looks like this event could be similar.

If this conitnues to look this good tomorrow I guess I will be waking up extra early Thursday morning. It would be crazy to have thundersleet 2 years in a row and almost on the anniversary of last year's event (3/2).

[cheezyWXguy]

Why do the models show that notch in the southern extent of the frozen precip in the southeast Texas area, where it falls as only rain?

[Ralph's Weather]

So I just refreshed my weather service outlook and they just updated that COMPLETELY TOOK all winter precip out of the forecast for Flint, TX near Tyler, TX.... wonder why?

I wonder if its a fluke.... I know sometime when i refresh my screen it shows weird stuff that just a bit later goes back to its previous forecast...

Its just weird because within the last hour it called for 90% winter mix wed night, and 70% sleet snow on Thu Morning. Strange...

Thoughts?

I just read the discussion and it really does sound like they do not think this will be a significant event. Wow is all I can say. They will likely go from saying this is a non event this afternoon to widespread winter storm warnings tomorrow.

[Tcu101]

So I just refreshed my weather service outlook and they just updated that COMPLETELY TOOK all winter precip out of the forecast for Flint, TX near Tyler, TX.... wonder why?

I wonder if its a fluke.... I know sometime when i refresh my screen it shows weird stuff that just a bit later goes back to its previous forecast...

Its just weird because within the last hour it called for 90% winter mix wed night, and 70% sleet snow on Thu Morning. Strange...

Thoughts?

I just read the discussion and it really does sound like they do not think this will be a significant event. Wow is all I can say. They will likely go from saying this is a non event this afternoon to widespread winter storm warnings tomorrow.

SHV or FW discussion?

[BigB0882]

Does the RGEM go beyond 42 hours? Does the frozen precip keep advancing south into Southeast Louisiana? Could be quite heavy if it does make it.

[Ralph's Weather]

So I just refreshed my weather service outlook and they just updated that COMPLETELY TOOK all winter precip out of the forecast for Flint, TX near Tyler, TX.... wonder why?

I wonder if its a fluke.... I know sometime when i refresh my screen it shows weird stuff that just a bit later goes back to its previous forecast...

Its just weird because within the last hour it called for 90% winter mix wed night, and 70% sleet snow on Thu Morning. Strange...

Thoughts?

I just read the discussion and it really does sound like they do not think this will be a significant event. Wow is all I can say. They will likely go from saying this is a non event this afternoon to widespread winter storm warnings tomorrow.

SHV or FW discussion?

SHV, I am 10 miles from being in FWD and I sure wish I was.

[Ralph's Weather]

Does the RGEM go beyond 42 hours? Does the frozen precip keep advancing south into Southeast Louisiana? Could be quite heavy if it does make it.

It goes to 54 hours. Though it does not show frozen precip in South Louisiana this time.

[TheProfessor]

If that 18z RGEM Verified someone could definitely see Thunder sleet or snow, Or maybe both

[dhweather]

49.9 in Heath - only 15.1 more to go !!!

[dhweather]

Looks like most of North Texas is 10-15 degrees short as well.