Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Shoshana
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#7641 Postby Shoshana » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:47 pm

Just looking at local weather on the news here either not a whole lot will happen or a lot of people will be all kinds of surprised by this upcoming event...
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Re: Re:

#7642 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:48 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0z NAM interpretation. Afternoon changeover by night fall the winds are blowing 20-30mph and heavy sleet falls sideways encrusting North and West Texas as precip blossoms in West and SW Texas. Goes on throughout the night until the early morning hours. Winds continue to blow and being an overnight event maximum sticking ending as some snow.


So, big ticket item? Anticipated accumulations and/or overall impacts?


Probably more sleet than last Monday and cover a much larger area to the east as well. i always have trouble trying to figure out how much qpf equates to sleet. The wind is a real kicker I'd say that would tip this as the worst of the 3 events.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7643 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:49 pm

0z NAM agrees with 21z SREF for NE Texas. If those 2 models verify, the Texarkana area will see a major winter storm:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7644 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:55 pm

Nam has been so inconsistent
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7645 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:08 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Nam has been so inconsistent

Yep, just like last week it starts way too far NW then shifts SE with every run. It gives NE Texas over .5" of QPF after midnight tomorrow so assuming that is mostly sleet we are looking at around 1.5". Its sounding is right on the freezing line through the mid levels so precip types are tricky as it could be a .5" of ice, 1.5" sleet or 5" of snow or more likely some combo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7646 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:20 pm

So I guess most of the models are easily warning criteria now

And I'm curious about this wind... My Alabama winter storms never had real wind lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7647 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:23 pm

I think the models might get more scarey tonight!!! But nam sucks discount that
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7648 Postby ludosc » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:24 pm

Hey guys I was hoping yall might be able to help me out. A friend of mine is a pastor at a church here in Fort Worth and they have a Wednesday night service tomorrow. He's heard me talk a lot about weather stuff since it's a huge interest of mine and so he's reached out to me for advice about canceling or not canceling the service tomorrow. Service starts at 6 pm and lets out at around 8:30 pm. He said people usually hang out until 9ish afterwards. Normally they would run off of FWISD's schedule, but since the service is in the evening, that probably won't apply to them. So my question is what do yall thing the roads in Fort Worth might look like around that time tomorrow? I did tell him that in the best of times, winter weather is hard to predict in Texas.

Anyway, thanks for the help
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#7649 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:29 pm

Jeff_Piotrowski: NAM model has backed way off on the snow & Ice for both OKC & Tulsa. Waiting on the GFS to roll in. Still looks like AR,N/TX WSW. #okwx
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Re:

#7650 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:With those winds, FW should consider putting out warnings if the guidance holds tonight. This advisory thing isn't going to cut it. It's going to effect the power grid I don't know what their criteria is but it's going to be quite a bag of precip.


A half inch of sleet alone is warning criteria
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7651 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:32 pm

0Z RGEM

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7652 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:35 pm

Interesting: Winter Storm Watch < Winter Weather Advisory < Winter Storm Warning

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#7653 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:54 pm

0Z GFS rolling in

Image


Image


Image


Image
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#7654 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:55 pm

BrianCurtisNBC5: Already 200+ flight cancellations at #DFW Airport tomorrow. via @flightaware @NBCDFW @NBCDFWWeather
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#7655 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:03 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.


TR.92
Last edited by dhweather on Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7656 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:03 pm

FW needs to put out warnings roughly from a Stephenville, to Dallas, to Sherman line. Frankly everyone around that too. Txdot has about 15 hours to pre-treat these roads.
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Re:

#7657 Postby ludosc » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:07 pm

dhweather wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.


TR.92


Did they say Thursday when they meant Wednesday?
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Re: Re:

#7658 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:08 pm

ludosc wrote:
dhweather wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

TR.92


Did they say Thursday when they meant Wednesday?



Yes, I noticed that too.
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Re:

#7659 Postby iorange55 » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:FW needs to put out warnings roughly from a Stephenville, to Dallas, to Sherman line. Frankly everyone around that too. Txdot has about 15 hours to pre-treat these roads.


They are so concerned with bumping things up to a warning. It doesn't make any sense. Most people don't take these WWAs seriously. They only pay attention when a warning is in place.
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#7660 Postby dhweather » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:11 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1009 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TXZ091-092-100>102-115-041200-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0006.150304T1800Z-150305T1800Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE
1009 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SLEET AND LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS IN THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW...SLEET AND ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

&&

$$

TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145-041200-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0006.150304T2100Z-150305T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...
HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
1009 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY
TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...PRIMARILY MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATION...AROUND 1/2 INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE SLEET DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...SLEET...SNOW AND ICE WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

&&

$$

TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175-041200-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0006.150305T0600Z-150305T1800Z/
HENDERSON-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...CORSICANA...
TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...
MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...
CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
1009 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SLEET.

* ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AND UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SLEET.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE AND SLEET WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
MORNING THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.
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