SIO-92S INVEST

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows a cyclone hitting Madagascar.

[jaguarjace]

92S INVEST 150304 1200 14.3S 42.1E SHEM 15 1010

[jaguarjace]

WTXS21 PGTW 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 41.7E TO 16.7S 43.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 42.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. A
041921Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 041923Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS
(15-20 KNOT), LEADING TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052200Z.//
NNNN

[talkon]

Now upgraded by the JTWC.

15S FIFTEEN 150305 1200 15.9S 42.1E SHEM 35 996

[jaguarjace]

RSMC La Reunion remains quiet about this system.

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.6S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.0S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.7S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.7S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.3S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.0S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 42.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 051009Z GCOM 36 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE
91 GHZ SHOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND ANIMATION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM AND AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HOWEVER,
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST AS
A FINGER OF THE STR EXTENDS IN THROUGH CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. BEYOND
TAU 48, THE STR WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK IN THAT DIRECTION. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96, EXPECT TC 15S TO
IMPACT THE BEMARAHA PLATEAU BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE MADAGASCAR
RANGE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO DOES NOT HAVE
THE STR EXTEND THROUGH MADAGASCAR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE EAST BY TAU 36 AND INTO ISLAND NATION AS EARLY AS TAU 48. DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

[Yellow Evan]

GFS not bullish with this AFAIK.

[talkon]

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.0S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.0S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.4S 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 42.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 052254Z AMSU IMAGE AND FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SYSTEM, LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND CONFINING LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 15S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
AND A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER AND A SLOW DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MADAGASCAR AND DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERALLY
AGREEMENT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM TERM
FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TOWARD MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS BROAD
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD
MADAGASCAR AND POST-TURN TRACK SPEEDS. GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SCENARIO, MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 549
WTIO30 FMEE 060709
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
2.A POSITION 2015/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 41.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/06 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/03/07 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/03/07 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/03/08 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/03/08 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/03/09 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/03/10 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2015/03/11 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A TENDENCY TO ORGANIZE
.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND TO
GO BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL ON SATURDAY EVENING, A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLO
W BUILDING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (WITH A WEAKNESS OF THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLO
NE POLEWARD, AND A WEAKNESS IN THE MONSOON INFLOW BETWEEN 05S AND 10S). THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
FAVORABLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL THE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED NEAR 20S, AND THE UPPER LEVEL EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDSH
EAR IS MODERATE (8.6 M/S ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS).
ON SATURDAY, THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM O
WING TO A MONSOON SURGE AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. BUT T
HE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT WILL REMAIN MODERATE.
ON SUNDAY, THE LLCC IS CONTINUING TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S
HIFTING NORTHWARD.THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING, AND THE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEEPEN MORE
CLEARLY.
ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAKE A LANDFALL ON MONDAY ON THE CENTRA
L WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
THIS SYSTEM IS THREATENING THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 18S OWING TO THE HIGH CUMULATED RA
INFALL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.FROM MONDAY, IT WILL THREATEN THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN
15S AND 20S.
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXXS28 KNES 060609
TCSSIO

A. 15S (NONAME)

B. 06/0530Z

C. 16.9S

D. 41.7E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED WITH LLCC HARD TO SEE UNDER HICH
CLOUD BLOWOFF. CENTER HAS CIRCULAR CLOUD BANDS UNDER A LARGE OVERCAST
FOR A SHEAR MATRIX OF 2.5. MET=2.0 BUT PAT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/0306Z 16.6S 42.1E SSMIS


...SWANSON


TPXS10 PGTW 060922

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 16.64S

D. 41.62E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .35 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0609Z 16.72S 41.65E MMHS
06/0656Z 16.68S 41.58E MMHS


UEHARA

[Yellow Evan]

GFS still doesn't do much with this.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC La Reunion downgrades to Tropical Disturbance.
Forecast to reach Moderate Tropical Storm before crossing Madagascar.

[talkon]

Final Warning by JTWC

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 41.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 41.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 41.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME RAGGED AND
ALMOST FULLY-EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ALSO PROVIDING VENTILATION TO
THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. TC 15S IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL AREA
AMIDST THREE COMPETING STEERING FORCES: A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND ANOTHER
STR LEAF TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW THE JTWC
WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGAIN INTENSITY AND MOMENTUM
AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 716
WTIO30 FMEE 071337
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11
2.A POSITION 2015/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 40.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/03/08 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/03/08 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/03/09 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5, CI=1.5
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A CENTER
FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE HIGHLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.
ON SATURDAY EVENING, A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO BACK TOWARDS EAST-SOUTH-EAST AND
TO ACCELERATE.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, ACCORDING TO THE VICINITY OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS,
AND TO THE MODERATE EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR.
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS FAVORABLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
LANDFALL, LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH FOR NOT BEING REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST.
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

15S FIFTEEN 150307 1200 16.6S 40.8E SHEM 25 1004